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Analysts believe iPhone will sell 3 million in 2007, and Apple plans to ship them all in one day

Worried about not being able to grab an iPhone when it launches on June 29? Don’t be. According to BusinessWeek’s sources, Apple plans to have a whopping 3 million iPhones for sale on launch day, dwarfing nearly all other consumer device launches in history.

While the iPhone’s pricy entry of $499 may initially scare off enough consumers so that the device won’t immediately sell out, Apple still maintains a goal of selling 10 million units by the end of next year. Analysts are pegging the iPhone to sell only 3 million this year, which could mean no further iPhone shipments until 2008, when sales are estimated to surge to 10 to 12 million.

Piper Jaffray Cos. analyst Gene Munster believes Apple could sell 40 million iPhones in 2009, majorly boosting Apple’s bottom line, but that may not happen without a lower-cost model intended for the more casual phone user.

The iPhone’s June 29 date was revealed last week through a series of 30-second television spots, with one ad even showing the device’s superiority over the iPod. At the end of each spot is the reveal of the June 29 launch date, along with the AT&T smaller print reading, “Use requires minimum new 2 year activation plan.”

Last month, a report stated that the iPhone would be an AT&T network exclusive product for five years. Verizon, who turned down the chance to carry the iPhone, says it will have a comparable product announced late summer.



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I can't believe Apple.
By retrospooty on 6/8/2007 10:21:36 AM , Rating: 5
"Apple still maintains a goal of selling 10 million units by the end of next year"

That is one of the most hilarious goals I have ever seen. They should seriously not embarrass themselves this way. Its like saying they will increase thier MAC platform to 10% of the world market... Rediculously laughable.

Lets see, I would say add 3g connectivity and lower the price to $199 and you will sell 10 million. LOL @ Apple. Once the launch hype dies down and people realize its just another phone, and it has problems all the debate will end. Its another Q, only better features and HUGE price tag.




RE: I can't believe Apple.
By tuteja1986 on 6/8/2007 10:47:36 AM , Rating: 1
Well if they sell 10million units by this year they beat Nintendo at supply.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By erector16 on 6/8/2007 11:34:39 AM , Rating: 2
They said they hope to sell 10 million by the end of *next* year.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By Finality on 6/8/2007 11:29:34 AM , Rating: 2
Well considering 10 Million units is 1% of current total volumes its not at all laughable.

Besides US consumers are not used to higher end expensive devices the rest of the world is.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By smartin684 on 6/8/2007 12:14:16 PM , Rating: 2
Apple says 10 Million, but they didnt say at what price. Prices should fall dramatically by the middle of next year as well as an update to the phone, so you are LOLing, but in your statement you are picking an arbitrary 199 price point and then saying they could reach their goal.

I say they could reach their goal by dropping to a 299 price point. Totally reasonable goal.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By OblivionMage on 6/8/2007 3:42:48 PM , Rating: 5
I just don't understand why someone would want one, I mean, I use a cell phone because its cheap, and it doesn't matter if I drop it. If I had an iphone I would be protecting it with my life, just not worth it IMO.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/8/07, Rating: 0
RE: I can't believe Apple.
By dice1111 on 6/8/2007 6:15:58 PM , Rating: 4
Whats wrong with cheaper merchandice? Not every one can, or wants to spend hard earned money on frivalous products. Not everyone is Paris Hilton. Believe it or not, some people buy products based on function, not fasion.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/10/2007 3:00:01 AM , Rating: 2
There is nothing wrong with cheaper merchandise, I was only answering the parent question.

He asked why anyone would buy one of these things.

Again, you bring up "frivolous". Is a CD player frivolous? Is a DVD player? A BluRay player? A plasma TV? A wireless network? A quad core CPU?

Yet there are plenty of people who buy these things (CD players used to cost hundreds of dollars; they wouldn't be available now for $25 unless someone bought the first expensive ones)...

You seem to imply the iPhone lacks function, yet from every demonstration/video or report, the iPhone has superb function, but charges a premium for it's usability.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/8/07, Rating: 0
RE: I can't believe Apple.
By rtk on 6/9/2007 2:55:55 AM , Rating: 3
The reported stats on mac market share have varied from 2-5% for a decade, depending on the source.

When the iPod came out, the market barely knew what an MP3 file was. It's not the same situation at all with cell phones.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/10/2007 3:15:44 AM , Rating: 2
In 2002 IDC reported Apple's US market share as 3.48% and sixth place:
http://www.macworld.com/news/2002/07/03/marketshar...

IDC then reports in 2004 that they are have hit 4%:
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/...

In 2006, after the Intel transition, IDC reports they hit 4.8%:
http://www.macworld.com/news/2006/07/20/marketshar...

By the last quarter of 2006, they hit 5.1%:
http://www.macobserver.com/article/2007/01/18.9.sh...

I see it as a good thing; increased competition can only make Microsoft produce better software, which in turn ends up benefitting the remaining 94% of the market using Windows.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By rtk on 6/10/2007 3:29:04 AM , Rating: 2
Exactly as I said, depending on the source...

The last link you posted actually links to a gartner report. Doing another google search produced this link:

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/FF...

"Gartner reported in January 2007 that the worldwide PC market in Q4 2006 grew by 7.4% over the previous year to 67.3 million units. Apple sold 1.6 million Macs in that quarter, giving it a mere 2.3% of that global market."

If you read the whole article, it helps explain the wide swath of stats that one will come across.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By retrospooty on 6/10/2007 10:30:15 AM , Rating: 2
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/FF...

good point RTK, it truly is a pick and choose stats game. As I mentioned before Apple has not grown thier market share on the MAC platform in 10 years. Not at all, in spite of what M2k wants to believe, or which stats he chooses to show (or beleive).


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/10/2007 7:10:11 PM , Rating: 2
Not at all; I was very careful with my "sources". I stuck to only IDC and I stuck to only US market share.

When limited to that criteria you can see Apple is increasing market share every year.

It is a lot harder to measure global market share because Apple's presence is so small.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By retrospooty on 6/11/2007 9:58:53 AM , Rating: 2
"It is a lot harder to measure global market share because Apple's presence is so small."

Exactly...

And to use only one source when every source has a different result in not a fair comparo. Most reports show Apple is at 3% global (give or take 1) and has been there steady for about 10 years. I would guess that equates to 5% US Market (give or take 1) My point is their share is not growing. It has been minimal for a decade and OSX, and Intel chips have not broken that mold.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/11/2007 12:46:26 PM , Rating: 2
You ignore my point entirely.

Apple's US market share has grown, in the past five years, from 3.48% to 5.1%; I didn't bring up worldwide because Apple's share is so small that it's hard to measure percent differences, but that's not true in the US. In the US Apple is ahead of Sony, Acer, Lenovo/IBM, Toshiba, NEC, and Fujitsu. Only Dell, Gateway, and HP were ahead.

If you want to argue, you should argue THAT point; that Apple has somehow managed to grow market share int he US and move ahead of all the Japanese/asian PC manufacturers in the US.

Next step, of course, is the world :)


By hannibal da mekanikabull on 6/12/2007 9:49:50 AM , Rating: 2
No, I didnt ignore your point, I just pointed out a part of your point that made my point. ;)

I do believe Apple's US market share may have grown a bit the last year+, but the overall world market share has not changed. The other point is that you cannot beleive one single source when researching market share, as many different counts yield different results. Most still have Apple at 3%, gaining no ground at all.

anyhow, this is an iPhone artcle and the iPhone is being hyped along with the iPod craze and it is NOT an iPod, the smartphone market is far more sophisticated and picky (and difficult to deal with when you add in the cell carrier) than the iPod market. Good luck to Apple. they will need it.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By defter on 6/8/2007 3:39:44 PM , Rating: 2
3 million at launch isn't that much considering that over 3 million cell phones are sold every day.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By ToeCutter on 6/8/07, Rating: -1
RE: I can't believe Apple.
By rtk on 6/9/2007 3:05:35 AM , Rating: 2
"In Q4 of 2006, Apple banked more cash than Microsoft."

Source? Before or after the investigation into the stock option backdating scandal? A quick google shows MS as about double Apple...


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By retrospooty on 6/9/2007 9:47:31 AM , Rating: 5
Your whole comment shows your fanboyism and lack of knowledge in the tech market.

1. Apple is NOT at 5%. For the past decade depending on who did the research and how, Apple has been at 2-5%. OSX and Intel platforms have not grown those figures at all. A fact Apple is cleverly concealing.

2. Apple never banked more than MS, again, its how the researcher cooked and cut the figures. Also, not relevant to the post.

3. Although overhyped, the ipod is certainly not the most anticipated electronics product ever conceived. I won't even get in to how stupid that comment is. It is a great smartphone on paper, and many people are very interested, but when the time comes to actually PAY for it, reality strikes. Its just too damn much for most buyers.

4. I never said iPhone will fail, I just stated it will not sell anywhere near 10 million by the end of 2008, that does not = flop. It is way too expensive and there is no CDMA version. I do agree that a future version with more features and lower price and broader market (CDMA) will be a potential big hit. Right now, its all hype, and you are beleiving the hype.

5. History reveals that Apple the end all be all of the gadget market as you call it. they took there once far superior OS and Platform and drove it down to 3% market share (although reports show 2 to 5%, most unbiased agree its about 3%). They obviously had a great hit with the iPod, but that is not a trend, it was a great product at a great time. This does not make Apple perfect, they are far from it.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By ToeCutter on 6/11/2007 7:49:45 PM , Rating: 1
Hmmm.

1. Apple's so clever, they can fool the media into printing wild stories about increasing market share exponentially? And only you alone are aware of the conspiracy?

2. Now the analysts have joined the Apple-reich Plan for World Dominiation? Um, okay. (Here's a blurb from Forbes for those who aren't buying the Apple conspiracy. If was off by a tenth of a point :-/

Windows still dominates the personal computer market, led by PC makers Hewlett-Packard Co. (nyse: HPQ - news - people ) and Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ) Inc., but Apple's slice of desktop and notebook shipments has grown, particularly in the United States, its strongest market. Apple's share in the U.S. rose from 3.5 percent in 2004 to 4.9 percent in 2006, according to IDC.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/06/10/ap380604...

3. I said iPhone, retro-literate. Who's NOT going to call it the most anticipated gadget since.......? It is, because we're STILL talking about it there's well over a month to go before it hits the shelves.

4. I'm not believing anything. I'm certain that iPhone will sell like hotcakes, for CoverFlow alone. In your haste to bash out a reply, did you fail to notice that I never alluded to whether or not I'll snag an iPhone? Nope, I simply explained that your assertion to the sales forecasts were "Rediculously laughable" (sic) was kinda silly considering everyone expects the iPhone to sell briskly.

5. Dude, any mention of Mac OS anywhere in my post? Nope. None. We're talking about iPhone in this thread. Nonetheless, you sound "Rediculously laughable" describing Mac OS as once the best thing since sliced bread while at the same time bashing the piss out of Apple! And, WTF said they were perfect?

Now switch the pretty LEDs on your Vista Ultimate-powered Dell XPS to red and fire off a reply.

I'm dying to hear more...


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By rtk on 6/11/2007 11:07:18 PM , Rating: 3
1. Nope, he's not alone, many others know about the bias by some media outlets. Here's another Dvorak article to get the apple fanbots frothing:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1872175,00.as...

"Every time Steve Jobs sneezes there is a collective chorus of "Gesundheit" from tech writers pounding away on their Macs."

2. Firstly, Forbes is a news outlet for finance and business news, they report on analysts. As well, they're a mac only shop, pretty obviously biased.

Secondly, anybody that can call a 1.4 percent increase in two years "exponential" is clearly deluded.

3. Bah! The PS3 was massively hyped as well, hows that going again? As well, it's 18 days away, not over a month.

4. The first 3 million will disappear (if they really have that many already on the boats), but nobody will be paying 8 grand on ebay for one, like the ps3 on it's release day.

After that is where it'll get really interesting...


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By S3anister on 6/8/2007 10:55:53 PM , Rating: 2
RE: I can't believe Apple.
By MonkeyPaw on 6/9/2007 9:48:13 PM , Rating: 2
Maybe they expect to sell ~4 million 1st revision models, then sell 6 million of the better second revision iPhone. 4 million rev2s will go to the all people who bought rev1s, so really Apple just needs to find 6 million customers in 18 months (4+4+2). Apple's business policy: Rush a product out, let the early adopters find the problems, then improve it later. The early adopters are hardcore fans, have money to burn, and follow Apple anywhere, so this seems to work just fine (macbook(pro), imac, & ipod users keep coming back for more). Go to Apple enthusiast forums and you will see that just about everyone knows this and accepts it as the cost of dealing with Apple.


27.4k iPhones / day ? 1.1k iPhones / hour
By jpcesar on 6/8/2007 1:59:18 PM , Rating: 2
To reach their goal, they must sell 27400 iPhones per day, that gives 1100 iPhones each hour for ALL the year.

The time i took to wrote this, they should sell 18 iPhones.




RE: 27.4k iPhones / day ? 1.1k iPhones / hour
By michael2k on 6/8/2007 5:27:27 PM , Rating: 1
You did the math wrong. 10 millions phones in 18 months is 18.26k phones a day, or 761 an hour.

Of course they sell something like 10x as many iPods in a year, so it is possible.


RE: 27.4k iPhones / day ? 1.1k iPhones / hour
By rtk on 6/9/2007 3:09:30 AM , Rating: 2
They *just* announced the 100 millionth iPod being sold, after six years, and 20 million of those were in q4-2006.

In other words, they haven't sold anything close to 10x as many Ipods in a 18 months.


RE: 27.4k iPhones / day ? 1.1k iPhones / hour
By michael2k on 6/10/2007 3:21:53 AM , Rating: 2
Oh, come on, I was rounding up with my 10x value. They only sold 46m iPods in 2006, 35m in 2005, so probably only 61m in 2007. Given 18 months then they would be selling about 90m... not THAT far off from 100m.

61m in 2007 translates to 167k a day, or 6.9k an hour.


RE: 27.4k iPhones / day ? 1.1k iPhones / hour
By rtk on 6/10/2007 3:37:14 AM , Rating: 2
2005 = 35 million
2006 = 46 million
2007 = 61 million
-----------------
total= 142 million

They sold their 100 millionth on the 9th of April of this year:
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/04/09ipod.htm...


By michael2k on 6/11/2007 12:49:31 PM , Rating: 2
Did you not understand my post? If they sell 61m iPods this year (and the year is half over), and continue to sell at the acclerating pace they've observed these past few years, from today until 18 months from now (concurrent with the iPhone release), Apple will sell about 90m iPods, or roughly 9x as many iPods as iPhones.

There, is that clear?


As a side note..
By ksherman on 6/8/2007 10:10:39 AM , Rating: 2
Apple removed the line 2 year contract line from the ads...

http://www.macrumors.com/2007/06/06/apple-removes-...




RE: As a side note..
By tuteja1986 on 6/8/2007 10:21:10 AM , Rating: 2
Ohh.. 3Million pissed of customer if the battery life stories are true !! but i have to say phone looks pretty cool but still lacks the feature i need before i pickup a iphone.


RE: As a side note..
By darkpaw on 6/8/2007 4:15:16 PM , Rating: 3
The next Apple customer I actually see get pissed off at Apple will be the first. They are like religous zealots. Steve Jobs could go on stage and call them any name in the book and they'd thank him for his sermon.


iStupid
By HardwareD00d on 6/8/07, Rating: 0
RE: iStupid
By Phynaz on 6/8/2007 1:35:27 PM , Rating: 1
Verge of death?

With a market cap of $106 billion USD?

With YOY sales increase of 40%

Wow, Dood, you're an Idoodiot.


RE: iStupid
By michael2k on 6/8/2007 3:15:00 PM , Rating: 2
They've been on the verge of death for 30 years now. They're probably older than you are :)

They are also worth more than Dell and have the highest growth rates in the industry at 30%. They're not going away any time soon.


RE: iStupid
By OblivionMage on 6/8/2007 3:46:01 PM , Rating: 2
I do agree that apples products are about novelty, and that look and 'style' is WAY above functionality in the priorities of their followers. Yet it seems like there are enough people who pay the extra money for a worse product, that they will not die...I mean, google will take over before they get a chance


RE: iStupid
By michael2k on 6/8/07, Rating: 0
RE: iStupid
By Oregonian2 on 6/8/2007 9:12:01 PM , Rating: 2
There have been a few times where Apple was indeed near death, but none of those times have been recently (although if Jobs had not come back to Apple, they may indeed have gone the way suggested).


On behalf of UK mobile users
By Adsski on 6/8/2007 10:17:44 AM , Rating: 2
I think this looks a cool product, I will probably get one when they are released here in the UK.

But...

Only if you add 3G first!
I love the idea of proper safari browser, but not at the crippled GPRS/EDGE speeds.

Of course it does have Wifi, but free access to Wifi when out and about is like hens teeth in this country.

Thanks




RE: On behalf of UK mobile users
By Griswold on 6/8/2007 10:46:23 AM , Rating: 3
EDGE is an enhancement for GPRS and HSCSD (thus EGPRS and ECSD). As far as EGPRS goes, I wouldnt call an average of 150-200kbit/s crippled, I mean, what do you want to do with your mobile besides surfing a bit and e-mail? I'ts not quite up there with UMTS (aka 3G), but I found it to be more than sufficient for what you can do with a mobile phone in the internet.

Old fashioned GPRS is too slow with its mere 55kbit/s, though.

I still agree that a "premium" product like that should also cover UMTS.


100$ for 4gb?!
By OblivionMage on 6/8/2007 3:52:09 PM , Rating: 2
It just struck me that the only difference, or at least the only one I know about, between the 500 and the 600 dollar versions of the iphone is a measly 4gb. Talk about a fricking markup...




RE: 100$ for 4gb?!
By Goty on 6/8/2007 5:26:46 PM , Rating: 2
Kind of like paying $750 for another 2GB or RAM in a Macbook Pro.


iPhone vs iPod
By pcmodem on 6/8/2007 6:52:23 PM , Rating: 2
I don't need a 4GB/8GB iPhone.

Would love a 30GB/80GB wide-screen iPod.

Cheers,
PCM




RE: iPhone vs iPod
By Oregonian2 on 6/8/2007 9:16:10 PM , Rating: 2
Me too. But still not for $500.


the facts
By m56 on 6/8/2007 6:55:13 PM , Rating: 2
Hi everyone, good comments. Apple makes good products that everyone can use, from computer uber geeks to my Mom who doesn't know that much about computer, and why? It is pretty intuitive, and has great software. I tried out alot of different music managers and mp3 players before I got an apple laptop and an ipod and it made the things I wnated to do easier, and less of a headache, that is why apple is still around. Now with this phone, people will finally start to realize what phones can be, because having lived in Japan for a couple of years I can tell you that our cell phones and cell networks are not very good at all, but most consumers dont know that so they just take their free locked phones and 2 year contracts for alright service. Yes, the iphone will have a contract also but in return I get a great phone that will play my videos and music, and I wont have to buy it all from my carrier. The 3G question is irrelevant really because why do I need 3G when I will be getting wifi internet access at most the places I go, and something tells me that wifi hotspots will be getting alot bigger in the near future (Earthlinked/googled/ municipal run wifi networks). The bottom line is that apple makes solid products, they caught all the carriers off guard with this phone, or maybe not, maybe Verizon and motorola were secretly working on a great phone for the consumer, or maybe they were just gonna continue feeding us RAZR's every 2 years.




RE: the facts
By kyleb2112 on 6/8/2007 7:35:48 PM , Rating: 2
Way too many broken ipods out there to call apple solid. Let's see how many iphones are still working after 14 months.


The question now is...
By INeedCache on 6/9/2007 4:52:39 AM , Rating: 2
are there 3 million people with more money than brains?




RE: The question now is...
By michael2k on 6/10/2007 3:28:17 AM , Rating: 2
100 million iPods were sold, weren't they?


No 3G no deal.
By RMSistight on 6/8/2007 2:11:33 PM , Rating: 2
I'm sorry but you expect me to pay $500 or $600 for a phone that uses only 2.5G? You must be joking. I know a lot of people that think the iPhone is cool, but at that high price tag and the fact that it doesn't have 3G is very discouraging. I, along with others, have agreed that it's better to just wait for a revision of the iPhone. If you're paying that much, you better have all the latest features. I might as well go with the Nokia N95. While it's not as crazy as the iPhone, it's 3G, 5 megapixel camera, DVD-like recording and most important to me is the onboard GPS unit. Just my opinion that's all.




ebayers
By GoatMonkey on 6/8/2007 5:18:13 PM , Rating: 2
Sucks for those guys who paid way too much on ebay auctions.




By Senju on 6/8/2007 5:45:18 PM , Rating: 2
Steve Jobs always kinda tests the market of new projects by making things exclutive. It may take another six months for the next gen of iphone to show up but I am pretty sure it is already in the r&d labs.
If Jobs wants to go international in the phone market he has to make the move to 3G. In Tokyo, everything is 3G now. There is no way he could enter this market with out it. I wish him luck to enter the market here but he will have to sell via Docomo or Softbank. I heard rummors that Softbank was interested in the iphone. BlackBerrys just enter the market here this year with Docomo services so my bet is Apple working with Softbank. :D




iPhone
By DrGross on 6/8/2007 6:17:25 PM , Rating: 2
$500? It's a PDA right? Is it the best ever? If so it's worth it.




"majorly boosting"?
By androticus on 6/9/2007 1:21:53 AM , Rating: 2
When did "majorly" become a word (suitable in what is supposed to be passing for journalism.)




iPhone Manual Leaked
By crystal clear on 6/10/2007 10:31:00 AM , Rating: 2
Want to know whats inside-

quote:
Apple WWDC: iPhone Manual Leaked On Eve Of Conference


The big iPhone news circulating on the Web this weekend is a leaked AT&T manual. The "iPhone Sales Training Workbook" is intended to teach cellphone-store employees how to tout the phone's features and overcome customer objections.

http://informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2007...




By MarcusJ on 6/11/2007 4:56:00 PM , Rating: 2
The idea of the Iphone is great but with the price and options you have already I feel the selling of the phone will be slower then thought. I based this theory on the fact that cell phones that come out have always been about the provider rather then the shiny options that come along with the phone.

Take a look at the Razer when it first came out the price was very high similar to the iphone.Yes, maybe not all options that the iphone has but the Razer was still a piece of work to average cell phone user. People waited and some of razer's sold, but when it crossover to different providers that when people really started buying. I really don't think 3 million will drop there existing service over one iphone!

New people will buy the iphone but the majority of consumers won't leave there existing service plan risk paying a large service contract cancelation fee which most have(T-mobile-Verizon) and go for a new phone with it's own plan(Yes the iphone will have a monthy plan too and other changes).I say wait, when Verzion and Nextel and all other providers offer the iphone it will be cheap and have more to offer and have better appz to play with after going through the hundred that apple has built on the iphone already!




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