Despite PlayStation 3’s currently sluggish sales, Wedbush
Morgan Securities analyst Michael
Pachter is picking it to be the overall winner in the console war.
According to him, the outcome won’t be decided on exclusive games like Final
Fantasy XIII or Metal Gear Solid 4, but rather exclusive movie titles like Casino
Royale. “Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to
deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the
console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios,” Pachter wrote in a
207-page industry report
“Should the studios embrace Sony's Blu-ray standard for high
definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over
Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba's HD-DVD format, we
think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate
software sales for years to come,” clarified Pachter.
Pachter goes into specifics about how he believes the video
game console race will play out over the next few years. He guesses that
Microsoft will capture 44 percent of the U.S. and European market by the end of
this year, with PS3 and Wii to capture approximately 21 percent and 35 percent,
respectively. Nintendo will then take over for a short while in 2008 with 39
percent share, eventually with all three console makers eventually sharing the
market.
“Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36
percent of the market, with Nintendo 'capturing' second place at 34 percent and
Microsoft finishing third at 30 percent. We believe that this is essentially a
dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate
significant profits,” Pachter concluded.
The report’s forecasts are for the western market, however,
as the Xbox 360’s foothold in Japan is far behind the U.S. and Europe. “These
estimates do not include market shares in Japan, which we expect to be dominated
by Nintendo (51 percent through 2011) and Sony (44 percent),” Pachter added.
Another analyst, Colin Sebastian at Lazard, continues
to harp on the PlayStation 3’s high cost barrier to entry, stating that
consumers are unlikely to purchase the console until either a price drop or
greater selection of games. “We continue to believe that a significant
pre-holiday ramp in PS3 unit sales is unlikely without a more robust title
lineup and/or a hardware price cut,” he said.