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Microsoft sees big sales for Vista although analysts aren't as optimistic

Microsoft is predicting that its Windows Vista operating system will mean big business when it is released early next year. The company expects that the adoption rate for the operating system in business environments will be double that of Windows XP after the one year mark. If numbers provided by IDC are any indication, that would mean that Microsoft is aiming for 20% penetration for Vista.

Despite Microsoft over enthusiasm for the release of Vista, analysts are less optimistic when it comes down to sales. ZDNET UK reports:

IDC expects a healthy adoption of Vista, Gillen said. "But we're not expecting it to be fundamentally different from previous releases of Windows," he said. IDC's projections suggest that 11 percent of business PCs that run Windows will be running Vista at the end of next year, Gillen said. Rival analyst company Gartner expects the installed base of Vista in large enterprises to be about 10 percent a year and a half after it ships. "We're not hearing companies say they're in a rush to get their users to Vista," said Gartner analyst Michael Silver.

The latest builds of Vista have gained quite a bit of praise from testers and the press. The operating system is feature complete and Microsoft is now working on polishing up the interface, ironing out the bugs and taking care of driver issues pointed out by testers.

Windows Vista will place a large emphasis on security seeing as how its predecessor was the victim of numerous attacks. Vista’s built-in security features which are there to protect the operating system have come under fire by a number of companies and organizations including Symantec. And as reported earlier today, Microsoft is also looking to bill Vista as a reputable gaming platform.

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Vision isn't reality
By AlexWade on 10/2/06, Rating: 0
RE: Vision isn't reality
By montgom on 10/2/2006 2:07:32 PM , Rating: 2
Everyone should have a dream, including MS about Vista. Some dreams may not come true.

RE: Vision isn't reality
By Murst on 10/2/2006 2:11:02 PM , Rating: 2
You really think people will "wait"? People will buy a new computer, and they will get the latest OS available. That will be Vista. The majority of the people out there could not point out the difference between 95, 98, ME, XP, Vista, nt, 2000, or 2003. Saying they'll "wait" for Vista is rather difficult to believe.

RE: Vision isn't reality
By Clauzii on 10/2/2006 4:12:10 PM , Rating: 3
Well, Win98se lives longer than even MS planned :)

RE: Vision isn't reality
By OrSin on 10/2/2006 4:24:54 PM , Rating: 1
Why do people always talk for from of people. I'm tester and althoguht Beta had it bugs it was beta. Right now I ahve 3 computers runing Vista RC1 and all perfectly stable. First thing you ahve to know is MS is nnot in charge of driver support. The hardware people are. So if you ahve something that dont work it your hardware vendor to blame not MS. Second I vista runing in an AMD 2500 with Nforce2 on board video and Audio (shuttle system) and it all working fine. Alittle slower then XP, but consider all the stuff running that xp don't have its fine.

And the big test is my GF is not computer savy at all she loves it. She have 5-7 gadgets running 2 spyware and 1 virus scanner on slow 5 year computer and no slow downs. And this is not even final release. One thing to know the gadgets are great for those people that uused to download weathbug and other crap. This gives them option to use let malware products that running more seemlessly. 3 weeks and my gf has not screwed the computer yet. Thats record in my book. Sorry but Vista is sweet.

RE: Vision isn't reality
By kextyn on 10/2/06, Rating: -1
RE: Vision isn't reality
By ZmaxDP on 10/2/2006 7:04:11 PM , Rating: 5
Despite what your english-centric life may have taught you, people from other countries have access to the internet (gasp) and to this site (double gasp)! It may get your panties in a wad when someone from another nation doesn't speak perfect english, especially when you visit said country, but then I'm sure you'll learn to deal with the idocy of others eventually.

Until then, console yourself with the fact that you have mastered one language fairly well while those fools in other places are trying to make due with two or even three. Seriously, the morons. Who needs to speak anything but english when it is truly the language of world domination. To heck with those nay-sayers that mention the vast majority of the population of the earth speaking other "languages." Who cares if english is only the main language of just a small percentage of the world's countries. It doesn't matter, english is THE language.

---satirical comments ending now---

Seriously, people post on these boards from all over the world. Many of them are learning english as they go, and should be applauded for the attempt even if they mess things up a bit. Be a pal and help them out rather than slamming them. Meanwhile all us mono-linguists should take a healthy dose of humility because we havnen't even bothered to try posting in a foreign language tech site.

This message has been brought to you by Don'


RE: Vision isn't reality
By Clauzii on 10/2/2006 7:22:41 PM , Rating: 2
This is to compensate for your postrating. The world needs more people like You :)

RE: Vision isn't reality
By ZmaxDP on 10/2/2006 8:14:15 PM , Rating: 3

(If it makes anyone feel better, I live in Texas, drive a pickup, own a home, only speak english, and have only gone outside the US a few times (maybe 5).)

(On the other hand, my wife is from Brasil, grew up in Spain, Mexico, Portugal, and New Jersey. She speaks 4 languages. So, it runs both ways at my house.)

A little tolerance goes a long way...

RE: Vision isn't reality
By oTAL on 10/4/2006 6:19:10 AM , Rating: 2
You get a +1 just cause you wife speaks Portuguese. ;)

RE: Vision isn't reality
By codeThug on 10/2/2006 10:50:16 PM , Rating: 2
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan.

Opens November 3rd in the U.S.

Drop eight bux and get a clue...

By edpsx on 10/2/06, Rating: 0
RE: Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
By FITCamaro on 10/2/06, Rating: 0
RE: Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
By Chernobyl68 on 10/2/06, Rating: 0
RE: Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
By retrospooty on 10/2/2006 3:32:10 PM , Rating: 3
Pick one that fits your system, its all cheap. Where have you been?

RE: Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
By QueBert on 10/2/2006 3:36:24 PM , Rating: 2
driver support is largely there? Depends on what hardware you run I suppose. Logitech is FAR off from releasing a Setipoint Vista driver, people claim you don't need drivers for that. My Logitech Bluetooth keyboard might work on one boot, not the next. Same with my smartphone when I try to sync it. I know Vista is RC1, but with my hardware driver support is about as poor as anything I've seen. Then we have Creative, I doubt I'll ever see a decent Vista driver for my Audigy card, oh well :)
I don't expect Logitech to have Vista drivers out by Vista's launch, and I don't expect Microsoft to have implimented ones that make my BT keyboard work right. So, I'll be staying away from Vista until this has changed, which I ain't holding my breath, as Logitech is slooooooow to release XP drivers.

RE: Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
By Flunk on 10/2/2006 4:08:21 PM , Rating: 2
I also have a Logitech Keyboard, but a wired one and it works perfectly with Vista even without setpoint. I think you might be having an isolated issue. I'm sure that you'll be fixed up by the time Vista launches. As for Creative, they have already released several beta drivers for the Audigy that work reasonably well. I'm prietty sure they are commited to creating new drivers for the Audigy because they still sell dirivatives that use the same drivers (Audigy LE, Audigy 2 ZS, Live! 24 bit)

RE: Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
By encryptkeeper on 10/2/2006 4:18:20 PM , Rating: 2
The biggest problem is that aside from a pretty interface, DirectX 10 support is really the only advantage for Vista. If you don't plan on using DX10, then don't trouble yourself with it, not even for a dual boot environment. Vista uses something called "Virtual PC" which supposedly eliminates the need for dual boot configurations.

RE: Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
By Xenoterranos on 10/2/2006 6:39:03 PM , Rating: 4
DX10 is the only feature?
Lets see.
IPv6 support
vastly imporved kernel-level security.
IE No longer integrated into the OS at KERNEL level.
no more GDI+ (whatever it's called)
better firewall
makes Norton/McAffe pissy :)

and thats just off the top of my head.

RE: Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
By hughlle on 10/2/2006 3:19:54 PM , Rating: 1
becaue i'm sure that they went to all this effort for a couple of sales. every item for sale was designed and sold because they thought there would be big sales numbers........

By theprodigalrebel on 10/3/2006 1:26:58 AM , Rating: 2
Sure, people will buy windows vista, install it, and then reinstall XP shortly there after when they realize their hardware doesnt have drivers for it

The first few million people who will get Vista are:

1) Enthusiasts who know how to check the Hardware/Software Compatibility Wizard & Documentation on (and also their hardware vendors' drivers page) before they plunk down $200 for a new OS (which has its own learning curve, surprises, hits and misses). These are the same people who will ask 50 other people on a forum before choosing between a Razer and Logitech mouse.
2) People who buy new OEM PCs with the Vista-Ready sticker: they should be good to go.
3) Corporations who have IT departments to test for things like these.

As for software, nobody (with sense) should buy Vista without making sure their (commercial) software works fine with it. A quick Google search will return some forum topic on it. Having a couple of freeware apps that don't work right is just a minor annoyance - and there are always tons of alternatives for those.

Majority of Sales likely from new machine
By hstewarth on 10/2/2006 2:42:13 PM , Rating: 3
I think the majority of Vista's are going to be sold via new machines and not upgrades ( at least initially ).

I believe the biggest boost will come from when Intel's release teh Santa Rosa Notebook platform.

One thing be curious about these update - what percentage will actually be 64 bit instead 32 bit.

By AnotherGuy on 10/2/2006 3:23:59 PM , Rating: 2
exactlly what im curious about too..... will 64-bit be more like the standard or the 32bit? I hope 64bit runs better

RE: Majority of Sales likely from new machine
By crystal clear on 10/2/2006 3:37:38 PM , Rating: 3
You are right,most of the buyers are not those do it yourself type.They are the plug & play types.

They prefer a preinstalled version ready for use.

As for those updates-MS is well aware the Transition from
32 bit to 64 bit is slow.Just to remind of-

When the original version of Windows NT was released,it was a 32 bit OS introduced into a 16 bit processing world.
As such Windows NT faced many challenges that Vista would face(64 bit).
MS has this experience in mind & the lessons learnt from that transition.Namely-
*Compatibility with existing applications
*New applications that take advantage of the new architecture.
Just to name a few examples.

So I expect a similar transition now.

RE: Majority of Sales likely from new machine
By hstewarth on 10/2/2006 4:56:38 PM , Rating: 3
Keep in mind also that 64 bit from 32 bit transition is a much simpilar change than 32 bit and 16 bit.

Also that most people today don't need 64 bit, 64 bit how ever helps out with large database applications and graphic application that have many objects and need lots of memory.

I personally have several machines at home and planning to have a dual Xeon 5169 sytems - all other machines are 32bit - I planned only to have Vista on the Xeon 5160 - plus like on a new Santa Rosa based notebook next year.

By crystal clear on 10/3/2006 2:46:49 AM , Rating: 2
MS started the gradual switch over to 64 bit with the release of Windows XP PRO x64 Edition.The target groups being CAD/CAM users,Digital media applications & gamers.

Those like me using the 32 & 64 bit Win XP PRO,run the
computer in DUAL BOOT configurations.So it was possible to switch back & forth.
It was possible to run 32 bit applications on a 64 bit OS,
with help of WOW 64.
The above group of user will adapt easily to Vista,the rest will take time .
You could use the DUAL BOOT configuration as a work around.

xp still available
By Lazarus Dark on 10/2/2006 2:08:56 PM , Rating: 2
Just wondering, does anyone have an idea how long xp will still be available after vistas release and should we expect a price cut on xp?

RE: xp still available
By Murst on 10/2/2006 2:13:00 PM , Rating: 2
I'm sure you can expect XP to be out of stores relatively soon after Vista comes out. It will still be available for corporate clients, but I doubt you'll find a lot of boxes on the shelves a few months after Vista is out.

RE: xp still available
By Master Kenobi on 10/2/2006 2:26:45 PM , Rating: 2
The day Vista hits shelves, XP will be removed. This was done when XP was launched.

Now I know I will be buying a copy of Vista when it's launched, My hardware is all top notch and I've been dying to get to use ALL of my ram, not just the first 3GB of it. As an IT expert at work, and with neighbor's, friends, relatives, etc.... I'm also going to be expected to have answers to questions as they gradually adopt Vista via new PC's or whatnot. So long story short, I'll be getting my hands on it early so I can disect it. Already got 5 copies of it running at home on my LAN, doesn't do so great with the older boxes, but does nicely with all of the modern boxes.

By ajfink on 10/2/2006 3:26:15 PM , Rating: 2
Seeing as almost all PCs coming out next year will be 64-bit capable it will probably be very prominent.

RE: 64-bit
By Loser on 10/2/2006 4:10:13 PM , Rating: 2
dont be mistaken, 64 bit is still a hell driver wise. you dont wonna go there

RE: 64-bit
By OrSin on 10/2/2006 4:27:12 PM , Rating: 2
Vista had very good 64 bit support now. Windows updates are evens tarting to download the drivers without you looking for them. And again lack of drivers is not MS fault. 64 bit driver support will be more staple then 32 in vista comes out.

By lemonadesoda on 10/2/2006 5:50:56 PM , Rating: 3
The company expects that the adoption rate for the operating system in business environments will be double that of Windows XP after the one year mark
Now how can you be sure to double your adoption rate? Price=demand right? Hence they are signalling to the corporate community, that after 1 year of release, there will be some VERY VERY attractive pricing available to corporates. Maybe even "2 for 1" upgrade licenses to the corporate community?


Very very few corporates buy into a new OS until it is proven and debugged. And typically that is one year. So most companies will not move to Vista UNTIL 2008 when the price drops for corporate buyers have kicked in.


Who will be doing all this "testing" and debugging during 2007. YOU the consumer. Paving the way for the corporate take-up in 2008.


I think YOU will be the one paying, not getting paid! LOL.

PS. I am a MS fanboy... I'm just pointing out some commercial realities. By the way... if I were MS, this is EXACTLY how I would do it. (Please don't mark me down for that one! LOL)

RE: interesting...
By doctor sam adams on 10/4/2006 12:02:32 AM , Rating: 2
Yeah, that does kind of suck. Just because they stuck the fork in it doesn't mean it's done.

By Brandon Hill on 10/2/2006 2:16:16 PM , Rating: 2
I personally installed Vista on my latop and have been pretty impressed by it. It found all of my hardware with the exception of the 3-in-1 card reader (just used my manufacturer's driver CD). As for my Bluetooth, Vista actually installed generic BT drivers and the BT stack and it recognizes the installed BT hardware, but it doesn't find my BT mouse or headset...bummmer b/c those are the only reasons why I'm not using Vista more often right now.

And for the most part, just about all of my applications installed with no issues and I haven't noticed any crashes/BSODs.

But for all that it offers, I can't see myself running out and buying Vista right away unless there are some awesome promotions available at launch (as there usually are for a new Windows release).

RE: Vista
By Ringold on 10/2/2006 2:29:04 PM , Rating: 2
I agree..

I'm not sure what the pesimissim is. Yes, Beta 1 was rather annoying, but mostly functional. Beta 2 was better, RC1 better still. I still see people complain about battery life; RC1 actually boosted my laptops avg battery life by 10%. At first I thought I was imagining it, but no, under my normal usage, over a week of observing it, 10%.

I'll be 'running out and buying it' only because a new DX10-C2D-Vista box only makes sense. Why get XP for such a new machine at that point? After a few months, I'll get another copy for my current X2 system.

My only driver problem, on any system, happens to be sound, but I didnt actually try that hard either since I didnt need it.

My Vista experience was not so great
By zomalaja on 10/2/2006 7:44:54 PM , Rating: 2
Intel 865 board, 1GB RAM, everything built in. Installation of publically available RC went well, kept displaying Security center (need antivirus), suggested Trend Micro Trial for Vista. Downloaded that, install failed (service could not be loaded), after that got a fatal stop on every boot. Went to Safe mode to uninstall, said that uninstall failed because Windows Installer was not functioning. Not quite ready for prime time in my opinion.

By Master Kenobi on 10/4/2006 7:08:52 AM , Rating: 2
Go in and disable the AV service from trying to run, then nuke the startup entries and the trend micro folder. Problem solved. Windows Installer does NOT function in safemode, it never has. Your stuck doing it manually.

"Microsoft sees big sales for Vista"
By RogueSpear on 10/2/2006 9:04:38 PM , Rating: 2
Yea well what else would you expect them to say? I'd just love it if they said "We expect sales to be slow and lackluster. After spending over years and several billion dollars we don't see how we could possibly recoup the development expense."

My personal take is that this OS sucks. I know others like it, some even love it, but I simply can't stand it. You know what they say about first impressions. Unfortunately in my case the first several dozen impressions have been terrible. I don't even think service pack 1 will convince me to upgrade. Hopefully Microsoft will deliver XP SP3 as promised.

By Master Kenobi on 10/4/2006 7:10:36 AM , Rating: 2
I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

it will sell but .....
By mforce on 10/2/2006 2:19:00 PM , Rating: 3
At the end of the day Windows is Windows and MS will sell Vista just like it sold 2K and XP because Windows is a standard and you don't really have a choice . However I don't really expect to see sales booming .
Sure new computers will come with it and there's little reason to get an older Windows version . Gamers will also buy it for the DX 10 and some will get it just cause it's new and has some extra features . I'm not sure businesses and people that work on their PC will get Vista too soon though . Some are actually quite happy with 2K and there's little reason for them to upgrade .
One reason I do see for an upgrade would be the new security features but then again companies already implemented all the security they needed into their XP and 2K systems .

feature complete
By fic2 on 10/2/2006 5:07:25 PM , Rating: 3
Shouldn't that be "feature complete" (in quotes) since there were probably more features cut than actually made it? Kind of like when you are talking to someone and you hand quote something that you don't really mean.

By Murst on 10/2/2006 2:07:25 PM , Rating: 2
Well, I doubt people will switch to vista because they just want a new OS. I'm sure some will, but that will be a very small percentage of people.

The rest will get Vista when they buy a new comp. The only way Microsoft can claim something like that is if they expect a higher percentage of people to buy new hardware next year, which isn't all that unrealistic conidering the switch to multi core and 64 bit which will be happening next year (yes, I realize that its been available for some time now, but next year will probably be the adoption year).

Doubling their sales seems rather optimistic though.

MS isn't what it used to be
By msva124 on 10/2/2006 5:25:07 PM , Rating: 2
Many of the beta testers and computer-savvy people have already spoken their opinion on Vista. What we haven't heard from are the non-techies, by far the biggest portion of the computer users and the ones who will speak with their wallet. They went for XP because Windows 9x was crashing all the time. Will they buy Vista for better looks and security? I don't think so, but I could be wrong.

By dieArmys on 10/3/2006 7:36:45 AM , Rating: 2
I would change the title to ...

Microsoft Dreams Booming Sales for Vista

"What would I do? I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders." -- Michael Dell, after being asked what to do with Apple Computer in 1997
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