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Print 114 comment(s) - last by edge929.. on Nov 15 at 11:18 AM

Creator of Pong and the man behind Chuck E. Cheese gives thumbs up to Wii and Xbox 360, but thumbs down for PlayStation 3

Nolan Bushnell, founder of all things at one point joyous to children, is featured in an interview with Red Herring where he is asked for his opinion on the state of the video game industry today.

Bushnell, who started Atari, is one of the grandfathers of the video game industry. When asked about about which areas he still follows of his former industry, he said, "I’m very curious and interested in the Nintendo Wii. I think it may expand the market beyond the hardcore [18- to 24-year old]." 

He also expressed fondness for Microsoft's online strategy, saying, "Xbox Live is interesting because it potentially becomes the platform for the living room."

But the tuned changed to a less positive note when it came to PlayStation 3. 

"I think Sony shot themselves in the foot… there is a high probability [they] will fail. The price point is probably unsustainable. For years and years Sony has been a very difficult company to deal with from a developer standpoint. They could get away with their arrogance and capriciousness because they had an installed base," Bushnell said.

Bushnell explained that ease of software development could be a deciding factor: "They have also historically had horrible software tools. You compare that to the Xbox 360 with really great authoring tools [and] additional revenue streams from Xbox live… a first party developer would be an idiot to develop for Sony first and not the 360. People don’t buy hardware, they buy software."

The interviewer then gave a counterpoint, stating that Sony must have been doing something right in order to sell over 100 million units of each PlayStation generation.

"It wasn’t anything brilliant that they did. With the PS and PS2 it was timing. They had the right pricing at the right time [and were] almost the accidental winner," answered Bushnell. "It would not surprise me if a year from now they’ll be struggling to sell 1 million units. [Factoring in the PS3’s price], I think in the U.S. the number of early adopters you have is actually around 300,000."

Sony is targeting to ship 400,000 PlayStation 3 consoles to the U.S. for its launch window, and a considerable portion of the allotment already sold out via pre-orders.



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COME ON.
By Quiksel on 11/9/2006 9:43:41 AM , Rating: 5
Not trying to get modded down, but tell my why Bushnell's opinion is relevant in today's day and age of gaming. Sure, he did found Atari, and was rather successful while the video game industry first took off (it was hard for anyone not to do well before the crash). But this guy was not the king of how to do it right, either.

Just because the "grandfather" of the industry says PS3 is bad doesn't mean he has a clue. Ask me what my grandfather thinks of my shiny new sports car that's fast as hell, and he'll tell you "when I was your age, we were happy with an old beat up Chevy" or, "50hp was more than enough to get around". Sure, he was there, but is he relevant for today? To me, not really.

I have a lot of respect for the guy, but not when he's shooting off about what's wrong with today's industry.




RE: COME ON.
By Exodus220 on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
RE: COME ON.
By halibut on 11/9/2006 10:16:02 AM , Rating: 4
Atari still makes games and publishes a lot of stuff. One thing that he is saying from experience and viewing what is going on in the console market. He is seeing what made his console the Jaguar a flop. He says indirectly that the reason his console was a flop, is what is going to be the downfall of the mighty Sony PS3. You look at some of the examples of consoles that failed:
-Neo Geo - Price
-Atari Jaguar, & 7800 - timing
-Sega DreamCast - timing and limited game support
-NEC TurboGraphx16 (This one I owned) - limited game support and rental support (their HUCards were not rental friendly in comparison of the gigantic cartridges from other vendors.))
-I can't think of any others right now...

They were all effected by timing, game publisher support, and cost, and are the main purchasing factors in the industry.

XBOX360 was great on timing, WII is great on price and where do you place the PS3?


RE: COME ON.
By NoSoftwarePatents on 11/9/2006 11:14:44 AM , Rating: 2
Actually the NeoGeo was not a failure-SNK's upper management was a failure at that time, since the company itself went bankrupt in the early part of this decade, then partially reformed, and was then later evolved into SNK Playmore.

http://www.snkplaymoreusa.com/

There are more than 100 games for the NeoGeo from 1990 to 2003. The NeoGeo was always a niche market, which is why the price NEVER dropped on new units for the life of the device. Also, the real income the powered SNK was from their Multi-Video System arcade version of NeoGeo. Porting the MVS to the home version was easy, since the ROM images were the same.

http://www.mameworld.net/maws/


RE: COME ON.
By Trisped on 11/9/2006 12:15:46 PM , Rating: 2
No, NeoGeo was a flop because it never caught on. Yes, I know 1 person that bought it and was happy with it, but everyone else thought it was stupid. I also remember all the news posts about how the company thought it would be great and pull them out of troubled times, which evolved into the company going under and the handhelds rebirth as a niche market product.

But back to the point, He is saying that the PS3 is not going to do well because it is too expensive for the power, late to market, and more HTPC then actual consol. Right now their only benefit is there zealous fan base, but if they don't turn that into PS3 owners real quick then they won't get the support base to warrant the investment of game designers.

Sony took a very big gamble with the PS3, and we will just have to wait and see if it pays off.


RE: COME ON.
By NoSoftwarePatents on 11/9/2006 1:14:31 PM , Rating: 2
"...everyone else thought it was stupid..." is subjective, so you aren't adding anything as you opine. Now compared to other hardware for arcade platforms, it was technically inferior, as Capcom's CPS-2 had a powerful architecture as was Sega's System32 platform for starters.

The NeoGeo was NOT TARGETED at the same market segment that the Sega Genesis, NEC TurboGrafx-16 and Super Nintendo was as it was released in 1990. It was found in magazines such as The Sharper Image, Playboy, and it could be purchased at places like the now-bankrupt Incredible Universe and other not-so-common stores.

It was an enthusiast platform, targeted exclusively at people who were willing to pay $150 or more per game with a super expensive console, plain and simple. Thirteen years is a LONG time-what other platform has been supported that long in recent times? Some "flop" indeed.

http://www.neo-geo.com/

If you really believe SNK was going after the same customers that were willing to pay $100-150 for a dedicated game machine coupled with $30-50 games, you are just plain wrong. If you have any websites that cite the fact that SNK was somehow banking that the NeoGeo was going to exclusively "save them", I'd love to see that.

SNK has made some bad management decisions, like all companies do, but the NeoGeo and MVS were NOT the main reason why they went bankrupt.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNK_Playmore


RE: COME ON.
By akugami on 11/9/2006 3:54:58 PM , Rating: 1
Neo Geo was awesome. Nothing beats hacking genuine arcade controllers to the Neo Geo controller and playing some of the (at the time) awesome arcade games available on the Neo Geo. Some of my favorite gaming moments was late nights with friends playing Samurai Shodown 2 (arguably the best in the series). And it wasn't some arcade to home translation, it was the real deal.


RE: COME ON.
By Rollomite on 11/9/06, Rating: -1
RE: COME ON.
By othercents on 11/9/2006 4:28:06 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
Right now their only benefit is there zealous fan base

So how big is this fan base? I would have to say that almost everyone that owns a PS2 is looking at purchasing a PS3 over an Xbox360, if they are planning to upgrade. Thats a large fan base. If Sony sells PS3s to have their current PS2 owner base then they will be more successful than Microsoft.

Also you have to look at the international market to see where Microsoft is struggling. One of the key markets (Japan) is not doing well for Microsoft, but might be a very good market for Sony. This is a wait and see type event because hell the PS3 could just plain suck as a console.

Other


RE: COME ON.
By Locutus465 on 11/10/2006 8:46:38 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
One of the key markets (Japan) is not doing well for Microsoft


Traditionally yes, but MS has finally found a killer app for Japan, if they keep it going Sony isn't the clear victor any more.


RE: COME ON.
By RandomFool on 11/10/2006 9:26:11 AM , Rating: 1
I know for a fact every PS2 owner is not looking at buying a PS3 because I own a PS2 and have no interest in the PS3.

$500 bucks is a lot of money for a kid. I know I wouldn't ever get a new system unless it was for Christmas and only after the price dropped. I couldn't fathom spending 300 on the PS2 never mind $500.


RE: COME ON.
By Zandros on 11/9/2006 12:07:26 PM , Rating: 5
Atari of old does not make or publish games. Infogrames bought the Atari name, and changed branding from Infogrames to Atari.


RE: COME ON.
By AlexWade on 11/9/2006 1:05:41 PM , Rating: 2
I wouldn't call the TurboGraphix16 a failure. I still own mine, and in fact was playing Military Madness recently. The TG16 changed the console market with their CD. I wish mine wasn't broken, because there are some TG16 CD games that I want to play right now. Specifically, the game Ys I&II.


RE: COME ON.
By nunya on 11/12/2006 12:46:38 AM , Rating: 2
Maybe they'll pop up on the WII


RE: COME ON.
By Kevil on 11/9/2006 1:36:58 PM , Rating: 4
Being first to the market does not make great timing and saying Atari still makes games is inaccurate, Infogrames release under the Atari name. The Atari of old no longer exists. The clash of the next gen is far from over we're only starting to see the 360 maturing and giving us great titles. We'll need to see how both the PS3 and Wii mature before we can actually call any of them flops.


RE: COME ON.
By One43637 on 11/9/2006 7:40:44 PM , Rating: 2
quote:

By Kevil on 11/9/2006 1:36:58 PM , Rating: 3
Being first to the market does not make great timing and saying Atari still makes games is inaccurate, Infogrames release under the Atari name. The Atari of old no longer exists. The clash of the next gen is far from over we're only starting to see the 360 maturing and giving us great titles. We'll need to see how both the PS3 and Wii mature before we can actually call any of them flops.



my sentiments exactly.


RE: COME ON.
By akugami on 11/9/2006 3:58:22 PM , Rating: 2
The Atari of today is not the same as the Atari of yesteryear. Same name, different company. It's dead Jim. And if you want clarification on why Atari now is not the same company as Atari then, look it up in the wikipedia.


RE: COME ON.
By timmiser on 11/9/2006 1:40:22 PM , Rating: 5
Actually, Nolan Bushnell was out of Atari by the time Atari ran into to it's major troubles. The Atari of today really has no connection to the original Atari. The name has been sold a couple times because of its name recognition and no employees ever transfered along with the name. For many years it was absorbed in the Warner Bros. conglomerate.

Nolan Bushnell is a visionary inventor and has a keen awareness of where things will be in the future so I would pay good attention to what he has to say.


RE: COME ON.
By highlandsun on 11/10/2006 3:20:04 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah right. Such a keen awareness that he turned away Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak when they pitched their idea of a personal computer, and forced them to go off on their own and start Apple.

Nolan Bushnell had one good idea and one stroke of luck. After he left Atari none of his other companies ever went anywhere.

He had nothing to do with the Atari Jaguar, 7800 or any other of Atari's last products, those were all done under the Tramiels. By the time Bushnell realized his mistake about computers Atari was already out of the race, an also-ran.


RE: COME ON.
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 3:25:12 PM , Rating: 3
This statement makes sense.

This is not the first developer, software company, big company or even financial forecaster to say Sony's Price Point is bad for the Average Consumer.

Sure they could still sell millions of PS3's. Lets say they sell 30 million of 3 years. They need to sell STAGGERING numbers of PS3's to make a profit. Here's why. They are losing more money then ever per single console unit. Only a large installed base of units will allow for the tremendous software sales they need to recover from the loses. The recovery could takes years even if they sell moderately well.

Im single male who makes approxiamtely 32K a year.. around 16 dollars an hour. I could afford a PS3, but I don't like living in dept so I don't use credit cards much. I live for the moment without being in debt.

There are alot of families who live in debt.. mainly because there are alot of families of 3 to 4 people in this world living off the same income as I or allittle more.

I've owned all the Nintendo's ( thank my parents for the 1st couple ) .. I bought a PS2 ( I never owned the 1st ) .. and I I still have my PS2 ( bought a seocnd one, the 1st wore/broke ) and now have a 360.. I just got Gears Of War.

I know a few who bought 360's and barely afforded it.
It's not features we're comparing, or who's better.
It's the PRICE OF ENTRY I could argue all day long that by the time I bought my 16 thousand dollar car and upgraded I should've bought the 24K Mustang V-8, but life doesn't work that way. We buy what we can afford when we can afford it.

Just a realty check. PS2 was 299.00 when i got my 1st.. ( its been 5yrs for it to drop to 129.00 ) .. It continues to sell well, especially to poorer families who want a good system that has a large library. It's one reason Wii looks appealing.. combine its lower price with a upgraded, more powerful GameCube internals, add better controls and you have developers who have room to make better games off of a platform they already understand.

Xbox 360 looks to be off to a good start and they are improving well for the 1st year they've been out.


RE: COME ON.
By chaos386 on 11/9/2006 9:52:57 AM , Rating: 2
I agree. I wouldn't trust the founder of Atari to know whether or not a system is going to fail.

Does no one else see the irony?


RE: COME ON.
By TomZ on 11/9/2006 10:32:20 AM , Rating: 4
No, I don't see any irony. After all, Atari had a very successful run at the time, and continues to be successful even today. Just because Atari isn't doing consoles today doesn't mean that Atari's founder doesn't know a thing or two about the gaming market.


RE: COME ON.
By kidsafe on 11/9/2006 12:10:37 PM , Rating: 2
You're leaving out a small detail. Atari today is GT Interactive renamed, a division of Infogrames. It's a hollowed out brand and doesn't even bring with it any of the original IP.


RE: COME ON.
By TomZ on 11/9/2006 12:14:16 PM , Rating: 2
I agree, but my point is that Bushnell did lead Atari to a good deal of success, and that the brand lives on today, even if it is a different company.


RE: COME ON.
By AzureKevin on 11/9/2006 10:34:55 AM , Rating: 5
It's not ironic. He has better reasons than anybody for why he thinks the PS3 will fail. He's been through that kind of failure before and has the experience to back up his reasoning and claim.

Here's an example of a scenario that would be ironic: the PS3 is in the same position Atari's console before it failed, but Bushnell praises the PS3 anyway and claims it will be the leading console. That would be ironic.

With all this being said, you still have to take predictions for what they are: predictions! Quit bashing the man just because you hope the PS3 will do well. He is simply giving his opinion on the matter, and there is nothing wrong with that. Only time will tell if he is right or wrong.

Personally, I don't want to see the PS3 fail. Competition is good for the consumers, and with the PS3 at such a high price, Nintendo and Microsoft have all the more reason to keep their consoles at a lower price.


RE: COME ON.
By MrSmurf on 11/9/2006 11:36:39 AM , Rating: 1
Exactly. He's been there before, lol


RE: COME ON.
By raisinbrainMMM on 11/9/2006 9:54:13 AM , Rating: 5
I'd listen to him before I listed to anyone of Sony's/Microsoft PR team.

He's a third person and has a pretty obvious argument. I can't see the PS3 doing any better than the PS2. Its hard to see that because the competition from other consoles is so strong right now. At the same time the price point is horribly high and the only reason you see this huge demand for the PS3 is because most people that are itching to get their hands on one are thinking of being able to sell the machine for a profit in case they aren't happy with it.

I'm sure that if the Ebay factor did not exist, the demand would be much lower. Most people would be much more weary before investing 600 dollars on a machine if they knew they would be stuck with it if it sucks. RIght now they can turn around and sell it for more than they bought it for to a bunch of hungry rich, early adopters.


RE: COME ON.
By plonk420 on 11/12/2006 6:09:53 PM , Rating: 2
i see two target audiences being a bigger draw: Home Theater Crowd (for flashy console system) and, to a lesser degree, the gaming crowd, at least at launch.

i'm not sure i see (some) people doing the math to see that 360 being the same price as PS3 if you're wanting a next gen HD movie format...


RE: COME ON.
By edge929 on 11/15/2006 11:05:57 AM , Rating: 2
/agree

Good price + FUN games = Successful console

end of story


RE: COME ON.
By ChugokuOtaku on 11/9/2006 10:00:07 AM , Rating: 2
he's not judging this by the standard of his glory days. Instead, he's observing the trend. No where does he mention about anyone settling for a 50Mhz processor does he?


RE: COME ON.
By VIAN on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
RE: COME ON.
By RandomFool on 11/9/2006 10:21:28 AM , Rating: 3
I'm sure 30 years from now you won't be able to form a decent opinion about video games either. I mean they'll probably be very different from today and why would you want to stay informed about something you're interested in.

Experience is wicked important. My grandfather was a mechanic and if he was still alive; I wouldn't dream of buying a new car without taking to him. Bushnell's been in the industry for awhile so I'm guessing he has a pretty good idea of how it works especially since the Atari did die despite it's popularity. just because things change doesn't mean people lose touch with reality.


RE: COME ON.
By TomZ on 11/9/2006 10:26:39 AM , Rating: 4
One thing to remember is that this guy didn't just make a prediction, but he put forward a few concrete reasons why he thinks Sony will fail. Who cares about whether he is qualified or not to judge the industry - the real question is, are his observations correct. If you don't agree that Sony will fail, then do you also disagree with his reasons why he believes what he does? Do you have counterpoints?


RE: COME ON.
By Quiksel on 11/9/2006 10:36:12 AM , Rating: 2
I'm not all that "qualified" to make a judgment on whether his observations are "correct". But I do think that there is a small (and getting larger) amount of sensationalism being stirred up simply because Nolan Bushnell, the grandfather of the video game industry, says PS3 is a dud.

I don't really have to agree or disagree with what he says, but it sure makes a good news article, now doesn't it? Why even take sides on whether he's right or wrong, it's not the point!

I'm no PS3 fanboy, but news like this is starkly poor taste. Hell, even Sony's newsbytes are even worse poor taste, with all the MS bashing and non-sensical spins on how their product is still better somehow. But I'm not blown away by the fact that Bushnell is saying something about PS3, mostly because he's just not all that relevant in today's gaming industry.

~quiksel


RE: COME ON.
By Quiksel on 11/9/2006 11:00:20 AM , Rating: 2
And to sort of summarize what I'm saying, it's kinda like this:

TomZ Forecasts PlayStation 3 Failure

Sure, TomZ is an avid poster, and makes good posts. He even has good points. But does that make it a great news story? Simply put, No.


RE: COME ON.
By Aikouka on 11/9/2006 11:16:57 AM , Rating: 2
Show me where TomZ helped to shape the gaming industry as we know it and maybe I'll turn an ear.

The reason this is news is because he isn't just some Joe Schmoe with an opinion... he's been in the business and has seen the good, the bad and the ugly (and so has every Clint Eastwood fan :P). Am I saying that just because he's the Atari founder that makes him automatically correct? No, not in the least bit. Do I think that his claims have merit with his experience in the field? Yes, I do.

DailyTech provides articles about current technology and tries to give you the nitty gritty. If it focused on purely "newsworthy news" you may not see interesting little tidbits like this. It's like a mix between Digg and CNN with a bit of tech (and that damn Oooops! error) mixed in ;).


RE: COME ON.
By TomZ on 11/9/2006 11:49:33 AM , Rating: 2
The fact that it is "news" is due to the guy's reputation and experience. But any Joe-off-the-street can make valid, accurate observations and maybe predict Sony's success just as well as a seasoned pro. My point was only that if someone doesn't agree with the conclusions, it would make a more valid argument to address his reasons, rather than his character.


RE: COME ON.
By ted61 on 11/9/2006 12:13:20 PM , Rating: 2
I don't care about all the hype. From looking at the consoles, games and prices, ted61 is buying ted97 a wii.


RE: COME ON.
By lemonadesoda on 11/9/2006 7:42:00 PM , Rating: 4
Warren Buffet is the granddaddy of financial investments. I still take his opinion seriously. I really can't understand how you can correlate the validity of Bushnell's opinion/observations with your old fuddie-duddy grandpa.

It's pretty naiive to pooh-pooh the observations and comments of industry veterans.


RE: COME ON.
By Clauzii on 11/9/2006 9:17:30 PM , Rating: 2
I agree, and this new (Nov. 7th) PS3 MotorStorm Intro shows that both SONY and the developers are on the right track, and even, I think, making the $499,-/$599,- pricetag looking pretty ok!

http://media.ps3.ign.com/media/748/748488/vids_1.h...

MotorStorm is going to be THE racing game for PS3 in 2007. And by the looks I'm truely glad I can wait till it gets going in DK.

Even at $599,- or Kr. 3995,-, which is basically cheaper in current danish kroner compared to the PS2 which, years back when it came, also was at Kr. 3995,-, but with less bying power than today.


RE: COME ON.
By Clauzii on 11/9/2006 9:26:14 PM , Rating: 1
sorry, buying - not bying..


RE: COME ON.
By Clauzii on 11/11/2006 10:59:10 AM , Rating: 2
Instead of rating it down, tell me.


Change of Mind
By darith27 on 11/9/2006 12:39:04 PM , Rating: 2
After watching this I had a change of mind, and I'm definitely considering on purchasing the PS3 (mainly b/c of bluray & hdmi support)

http://zdnet.com.com/1606-2_2-6132101.html




RE: Change of Mind
By michal1980 on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
RE: Change of Mind
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 3:33:08 PM , Rating: 2
Remember how the low end PS3 was going to come without HDMI?

It's because the industry and companies involved in HDMI have agreed not to flag movies ( to check if HDMI is being used to protect from Pirating ) till 2012.

They only added it to appease an already angry and weary consumer base.

It's one reason MS can play 1080p over component cables without worry of degradation.

Most average cosumers don't care alot about HD-DVD or BLuray right now. Maybe they will more in 2 or 3 yrs (??) unless another better format comes along which is very possible!

Question is.. Does Sony have that kind of time? 2 or 3yrs of slow PS3 Or Bluray sales will hurt (IF that happens)

On the other side.. Console maker MS for Xbox 360 doenst have to worry. They support HD-DVD but don't have the stake in HD-DVD if it fails. MS will not lose the staggering money SOny will if Bluray fails since Sony had the biggest hand and probably the biggest use of its own money to develop Bluray. Toshiba developed HD-DVD.. I don't even think MS had a hand in their development.. they just are one of the companies who think its price point is geared more towards average shoppers. ALot of folks out there can't justify that kind of money.

Maybe in 4 or 5 yrs when HD-TV's are as affordable as regular tv's now.. I think if timing had been different..


RE: Change of Mind
By michal1980 on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
RE: Change of Mind
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 4:41:19 PM , Rating: 1
In every debate and every forum there's always a critic and I with an open mind try and see every view of an opinion.

I liken your opinion to the backwards hillbilly who drives a 2006 Corvetee, but lives ina trailer with the family.

I just checked out Best Buys website. Yes, you're right I see some good 20 INCH High Def LCD's for 499.00 I could play games on.. I guess that would be sort of ok..

But right now, Especially Bluray is mainly being looked at by Video/ Audio.. umm.. "Motorheads" if you excuse the term. I work in the mediecal field and know even some doctors who know little about HD-DVD or Bluray nor care.. because they have Student loans and Houses they are paying on.. They have their priorities straight.

Lets say though for your argument I'm buying Bluray or even the cheaper HD-DVD .. or interested in PS3 so I can play Bluray movies.. I'd like to think there are less more people living in home driving Chevrolet Malibu's or Honda Civics, then people living in trailers driving Vettes or Vipers.

If I buy PS3, Bluray, or a HD-DVD upgrade for my Xbox 360.. I'm afraid I'll have to go with a 50 INCH Plus size. Call me nuts, but for my own sake, or even when I have friends oever.. I hate to watch movies on a small screen.

I guess we could all just gather around the family on our computer monitors and watch tv...


RE: Change of Mind
By michal1980 on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
RE: Change of Mind
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 7:54:25 PM , Rating: 1
You think so ?

Another friend is a student loan collector.. One she mentioned was a Dr. who owed 800k in Stuident Loans..

Not all Dr's are older fellows.. many are out of school and in debt.. with families.. bill of their practices, insurances.. and just because you're rich doesnt make you a gamer.. an audiophile.. or anything of a hobbyist..

Although im sure there are plenty of Dr's and Lawyers who love all the above.. so dont go there..


RE: Change of Mind
By TomZ on 11/9/2006 5:30:57 PM , Rating: 2
I agree with your overall thesis, but I did want to point out that Microsoft made a significant investment for HD-DVD in terms of the file formats, specifications, and software involved. I don't know the percentage split between Microsoft and Toshiba in terms of investment, but there was enough investment by Microsoft that they also feel that HD-DVD is "their" format.

But to be sure, they have much less at stake than Sony does with Blu-ray. If HD-DVD fails, then worst case, Microsoft might have to bring out a Blu-ray device for XBOX - no big deal, I think.


RE: Change of Mind
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 3:40:11 PM , Rating: 2
HDMI doesn't matter much till 2012- ITS TURNED OFF, not to mention.. another point.. most HD-TV owners don't even have a HDMI port on their tv. Only newer HD Sets do..

http://editorials.teamxbox.com/xbox/1608/Editorial...

1080P Reality Check
http://www.hdtvexpert.com/pages_b/reality.html

Understanding 1080P ( Covers resolution, refresh rates, Why it wouldnt look better on alot of sets that "Support" 1080P)
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/accessories/200...


RE: Change of Mind
By ArneBjarne on 11/9/2006 6:34:22 PM , Rating: 2
There is a lot more to HDMI than the image constraint token.

You get digital out of both video and audio. No DA conversion going on in the console, eliminating one of the main concerns people had about using the previos generation of consoles for DVD movies.

All other HD players have HDMI out so it is the industry standard for HD out. This is why many new HD display devices do not support 1080p input from component/vga. What good is 1080p analog out from the xbox if your projector/tv does not support 1080p analog in? The issue is illustrated by this thread at avsforum, where people are trying to find out which projectors/tvs actually do support 1080p analog input:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=74...

HDMI is needed for digital transfer of the new HD audio formats. S/PDIF out, which the xbox has, can not handle it. To make matters worse the xbox does not even have analog 5.1 out AFAIK, which means you will not be able to access the HD audio tracks on HD-DVD movies at all.

All in all the PS3 specs make it a nice 1st generation BD player, especially considering the price. The xbox with a HD-DVD add-on on the other hand is by far the worst speced HD-DVD player there is AFAIK can tell.


RE: Change of Mind
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 7:51:20 PM , Rating: 2
I dont disagree with much of what you say. I was really addressing avg folks who really dont know shit from applebutter.. not people who are audiophiles..

First of all.. there are quite a few HD-sets that come with HDMI DO NOT support 1080p.. so even HDMI will not help in many cases for yrs to come.. maybe when next Gen consoles are out. Then the few that do.. sometimes get translated to interlace (1080i) because the sets refresh rate... or worse you get stutter and dropout..

I agree with you..alot of older sets with no HDMI don't support 1080p either ( mine goes to 1080i, although my cousings says it will support 1080 over composite cables - it says in his book .. i didnt believe and he showed me) .. but in the big picture almost all cable which is being upgraded now only supports 720p and it looks to stay that way for sometime. So for some time you'll see HDMI TV's lacking 1080p support to save on cost. Cables companies will do 720P for years to come ..


Im sure 10 guys here might care.. but With all the features a PS3 has in order to take advantage of them everyone that loves the PS3 ( ON PAPER who doesnt? ) will go buy a 600 dollar PS3, a 5.1 or better audio system, a HD-TV, and everything else.. like th 7.1 audio on HD-DVD, Bluray..

Audio is something that really isn't quite so ESOTERIC to the normal run of the mill consumer in general.. I know you can do 5.0 Dolby over analog though.. I digital connection with my 5.1 setup.. and If I bought the HD-DVD player addon.. I'll just have to live with 5.1 .. but I feel as a gamer im a bit ahead of the curve.. alot of friends dont have a widescreen HD TV.. they have regular 480i tv.. and no one else I know even has 5.1 ..

So even though what you say about the Digital (S/PDIF) is true on the 360.. ( It doesnt support support 7.1 Dolby which is one of the audio streams on HD-DVD or Bluray ).. technically I think that linkup could support 7.1 bandwidthwise .. but as you may have meant.. the audio hardware has to support it..

My post have been mainly covering why I doubt PS3 because of the entry price to mainstream who bought PS2 .. not because of its features.. alot of folks dont even care about 5.1.. less have 6.1 and will people flock to buy 7.1, and HD-TV and a PS3 altogether .. Wii buyers don't have any of those options or care.. because to them its about gaming.. When you talka bout a gaming machine it has to be practical and affordable.. Nintendo could've out out a 600 dollarr system I suppose if they wanted to bury themselves for sure.


RE: Change of Mind
By ArneBjarne on 11/11/2006 5:40:12 PM , Rating: 2
By HD Audio I do not mean 7.1, for now that is pretty irrelevant as no movies are mixed with that many channels, except for SDDS 8 channel, but that is another story since no consumer setups match the use of channels there (5 front, 2 surrond and 1 sub).

I meant the new formats like dts-HD Master Audio that has higher sample and bitrate, combined with lossless compression, or the uncompressed soundtracks. S/PDIF cannot handle anything but standard Dolby Digital and dts like you know it from DVD*. This is ilustrated on the chart on this page of the dts website:

http://www.dtstech.com/dts-hd/why-does-dtshd-sound...

You actually need HDMI 1.3 to get it all, even the earlier versions of HDMI will not do as you can see.

Now if the xbox actually has 5.1 anologe out that would help alot, since you could at least get the HD audio out on analoge then (assuming that it is uncompressed, or that the xbox can decode the format if it is compressed). However, as far as I can tell it only has 2 channel analoge out, which would limit it to Dolby Pro-logic at best (4 channels matrix encoded into 2), but in that case standard DD/dts over the S/PDIF would be better.



*DVDs rarely use the full bitrate possible with the standard DD/DTS formats though, so you would in most cases get better bitrate from the HD-DVD version on the xbox compared to a normal DVD version. Eg. full vs. half-bitrate standard dts.


RE: Change of Mind
By Corrupt4d on 11/9/2006 7:57:56 PM , Rating: 2
HDMI is turned off? Then how is my HDMI upconvert DVD player hooked up to my HDMI receiver? And how is my HDMI receiver hooked up to my HDMI tv?


ICT isn't fully enabled right now, but that doesn't mean that HDMI is pointless.


RE: Change of Mind
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 8:55:32 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah I didn't mean it that way. If you read the whole post you would've gotten the idea -- I think everyone here including myself knows the jack itself works.

Upconversion, which is also known as line doubling, reduces the visibility of horizontal scan lines, which become more noticeable on large screens. The resolution upconversion does, will not actually add any real picture information to the image, as you cannot create real picture information where none existed before.

What upconversion "theoretically" does is create a smoother look for non-HDTV signals. Since Widescreen DVD's are 480P the HDMI really isn't doing shit, except being a signal carrier. Most regular DV players manufacturers could've just as easily made upconversion happen over component cables, but they were considering the few digital tv's with 1080p and pushing HDMI of course.

If you own a Xbox 360 and watch a 480P Widescreen movie & also own a HD-TV you're getting an upconversion because the signal is being upgraded thru the Xbox 360 ( you have the 360 set on 720P or higher broadcast) - is broadcasting an HD Signal so it looks much smoother.. while even Regular 480P DVD players hooked up with Component cables still only outputs a 480P signal.



RE: Change of Mind
By PanzerEdge on 11/10/2006 2:13:13 PM , Rating: 2
> 1080P Reality Check
http://www.hdtvexpert.com/pages_b/reality.html

You're talking about an article that was written in July of 2005!!! There are 1080P TV sets, and Blu-ray, HD-DVD and some PS3 games that offer 1080 source material. How's that for a reality check?

Xbox sites that downplay superior features of the PS3 make for great comedy. You forgot articles downplaying Blu-ray, because no one is ever going to watch that. Sheesh.


RE: Change of Mind
By Goty on 11/9/2006 6:13:56 PM , Rating: 2
It's funny how these kinds of articles never show up on [i]certain[/i] websites.


300,000?
By regnez on 11/9/2006 9:31:51 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
"It would not surprise me if a year from now they’ll be struggling to sell 1 million units. [Factoring in the PS3’s price], I think in the U.S. the number of early adopters you have is actually around 300,000."


I am not a huge fan of the PS3 or anything, but this statement makes no sense. If there were really only 300,000 ish early adopters of the PS3 in the US, would ebay really have to take measures to stop sellers from selling their preorders? and the preorders that were for sale for awhile were going for $1000 - $1500 a piece.

People would not be ready to pay $1500 for a slip of paper and a chance at a PS3 on launch day if there were so few early adopters.




RE: 300,000?
By AmbroseAthan on 11/9/2006 9:39:35 AM , Rating: 2
The pre-orders were not based on the 400,000 mark of the launch window. My guess is it was closer to 50,000 for the pre-orders; the stores don't want to put themselves into a difficult position.

So you now have 300,000 people hoping for 50,000 units pre-order units, plus the Ebay history with the 360 launch, and the PS2 popularity. The history of other systems is going to skew the demand/price for the ebay pre-orders to high levels. Even at 100,000 pre-order units it is still pushes the demand would still present itself the same (based on the before mentioned histories).


RE: 300,000?
By DFranch on 11/9/2006 9:41:28 AM , Rating: 2
I doubt there were 300000 preorders issued for the PS3. So the early adopters are bidding stupid amounts of money to be the first guy on the block to have a PS3. But relax, I'm pretty sure Sony will sell more than 300000 in the next year. They don't deserve to for many of the reasons cited in the article (Poor design tools, general arrogance, forcing blue-ray on gamers (I added that last one)), but they will sell like hotcakes.


RE: 300,000?
By ChugokuOtaku on 11/9/2006 9:47:24 AM , Rating: 2
I find the statement quite agreeable.

If you think about it, those 300,000 ppl who are getting the the PS3, these are the people who will buy it whether it's priced at $600, or $6,000. This is very different from PS2, where when comparing to it's competition of the time, the price was not a factor, since both the Xbox and the PS2 were priced roughly the same. However, with the PS3, price becomes a much bigger deciding factor, since the most expensive competition is still $100 less than the Core PS3. So for those were are wavering on which console to get, Sony will be losing a lot more of those customers than in the previous console war. Now, as for those ppl who are deciding on whether to get a console at all, Sony will lose big, as that hefty pricetag does not look pocket friendly in anyway, and it will be difficult finding enough justification to go against such a huge drawback.


RE: 300,000?
By TomZ on 11/9/2006 10:28:28 AM , Rating: 2
The eBay restriction is based on the experience with the XBOX 360 (not the PS2), and also is probably based (I would guess) on some behind-the-scenes threats by Sony to eBay to keep that market under control.


RE: 300,000?
By deeznuts on 11/9/2006 1:17:13 PM , Rating: 2
Regardless of presales, does anyone believe this guy that he sees only 300,000 units of the early adopters? Anyone seriously?

The only way I see this happening is if Sony only delivers 300,000. IMO sony will sell whatever they can deliver at the beginning. How many gamers you know passed on the XBOX for over a year to "wait for the Playstation?"


RE: 300,000?
By peldor on 11/9/2006 1:57:49 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
How many gamers you know passed on the XBOX for over a year to "wait for the Playstation?"

Not many gamers, but plenty of idiots.


RE: 300,000?
By deeznuts on 11/9/2006 6:43:46 PM , Rating: 2
To each their own, but there's still a lot of them.


I'd Have to Agree
By porkster on 11/9/2006 9:36:25 AM , Rating: 3
I'd Have to Agree

* Over priced for market-type.
* Awful design, especially controllers.
* Using dud DRM and expensive blue-ray format.




RE: I'd Have to Agree
By michal1980 on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
RE: I'd Have to Agree
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 5:03:06 PM , Rating: 2
Yes it is OVERPRICED for the market type.
NO its NO OVERPRICED for its features.
But the 1st sentence matters most.

The "hundreds of thousands" ( as you say ) who sell them to IDIOTS who buy them for much much more money doesnt not help Sony NOR does it help Developers worrying that they won't make a profit if sales are 'slow'

Hundreds of Thousands of 2hand 3rd party sales of people like you and me making mor emoney off someone else doenst give any money to anyone but us.

And Wii could easily take 1st or second- even though it is technologically inferior to Xbox 360 or PS3 beause it'll sell millions.. and more millions then Game Cube - lets not forget it'll play Gamecube games - a Nintendo first.

I wouldnt doubt if Sony came in 3rd place in the game console this time. They should've stuck to selling stand alone Bluray players.. having it as an addon for PS3.. then we all could've bought one for 300 dollars.. They could've then been smart.. waited for BLuray to drop .. and added it to PS3 as an internal drive 3yrs later..

it would've been brillaint. The number of people who bought more then one PS2 due to wearing it out has been high.. Imagine the number of people that would've bought a 300 dollar PS3.. bought games.. and said 3yrs later.. Yeah.. I'll buy another PS3 with Bluray.. I have the games to justify it.. etc.. etc..

Now instead.. people are buying a Wii or 360.. Way to go Sony.. Guess my PS2 is doomed to be played less and less..


RE: I'd Have to Agree
By akugami on 11/10/2006 1:23:46 AM , Rating: 2
Even with more technologically advanced features, it may be overpriced if these features are difficult to utilize to increase my gaming enjoyment. I have yet to see how Blu-Ray or the Cell processor will change the face of gaming or produce games not possible on lesser systems. Maybe produce games not as graphically pleasing due to the PS3's more powerful GPU but I have yet to see any game or gaming concept that can only be done on the PS3 that can't be duplicated on the Xbox 360 or with a big graphics drop on the Wii.

I'm going to have to agree that had Sony's movie and corporate leaders not pushed for Blu-Ray on the PS3, Sony could very well be the undisputed leader still. The reason is that the PS3 was meant to be a trojan to get Blu-Ray into people's homes. This way, Sony can reap an insane amount of licensing dollars from all Blu-Ray movie sales as well as drive sales. Much like how Phillips (I think it's Phillips) enjoys royalties and licensing fees from CD sales whether they are blank or not.

As it stands, the high cost of both the Cell and Blu-Ray could very will sink this ship. Even if Sony retains the lead but it's leadership margin is very slight it could find the PS3 a failure due to not being able to recoup the cost of the PS3 and if Blu-Ray finds itself on the losing side of the HD format wars. Projections from a Sony exec was five years before Sony recoups the cost of developing and subsidizing the PS3. I'm sure these are projections for if the PS3 is the market leader and likely a strong market leader much like how the PS2 is the undisputed #1 console.

The ultimate irony would be that in pushing the Blu-Ray on the PS3 so that they can possible reap higher profits from Blu-Ray, Sony may have killed one of it's few cash cows. Anyone looking at Sony's electronic departments can see that overall, they're doing poorly from strong competition from Korean companies and cheap knockoffs from China.

Being firmly middle class, I have the money to buy a PS3 and I have an HDTV. I like games. I seem to be the prime target for the PS3. I owned a $1000 Laserdisc player for crying out loud and paid $100 per movie for it. However, if I'm not willing to pay $500 and change for a console, how many others with my situation aren't? This isn't even counting those who can't afford $500 for a console.

Oh, and I hate the standard PS1 and PS2 controllers. The inside of the faux cross controller, where it's cut out and pointed always digs into my left thumb and hurts when playing twitch games or during intense gaming. I much prefer the design of the Xbox's cross controller or the original from Nintendo. Basically I use 3rd party controllers for my PS1 and PS2.


RE: I'd Have to Agree
By DingieM on 11/10/2006 5:42:18 AM , Rating: 2
"Maybe produce games not as graphically pleasing due to the PS3's more powerful GPU but I have yet to see any game or gaming concept that can only be done on the PS3 that can't be duplicated on the Xbox 360 or with a big graphics drop on the Wii."

You are very wrong about this. Xbox360 has the (much) more advanced GPU but the PS3 has the (difficult to utilize) cell broadband processor that has the highest calculation power. From the beginning it was known that games as application is not that well suited for the cell.
Go read some technical articles on the net.
Look at Gears Of War now...still not impressed...well wait and see when PGR4 is here! Just an example...

And all this talk about HD-DVD versus BluRay...well video's from the internet will take over.


RE: I'd Have to Agree
By akugami on 11/10/2006 12:43:19 PM , Rating: 2
Well, I'm not as update on the GPU's of the respective consoles but from my layman's view of things, the Xbox's GPU is technologically more advanced features wise but that the PS3 GPU was maybe a bit more powerful. But who really cares, they're similar enough power wise that to me it doesn't matter. A console's graphics capabilities are not something I can control unlike a PC in which I scrutinize offerings from both nVidia and ATI very closely to see what is best for me.

As for Cell, it's the most powerful CPU out of all the next gen consoles on paper but a lot of it's power is very very limited much like how GPU's in today's PC's are very powerful but very limited in the type of calculations it's suited for.

I'm not disagreeing with anything you're saying, the post you're replying to just has me stating it from a Sony hype standpoint about how super duper uber the PS3 is and how it is amazingly more powerful by factors of 100 over it's competition. Sadly the fanboys are eating it up.


RE: I'd Have to Agree
By Clauzii on 11/10/2006 8:16:34 PM , Rating: 1
* Over priced for market-type.

Cost no more in todays money than PS2 did back then. Where is PS2 today with more than 100mill. units sold. PS3 will get cheaper with time, just like any electronic gizmo.

* Awful design, especially controllers.

Design is totally subjective - I think it's more B&Oish than XBox 360, so I like. The controllers are some of the best out there.

* Using dud DRM and expensive blue-ray format.

Everybody is using DRM today. Yes, while initially more expensive, it's STILL more storage than HD-DVD. IF it's a more silent drive than HD-DVD, I'll go for that too.

And it's ALL in one box ;)


RE: I'd Have to Agree
By Clauzii on 11/11/2006 10:30:13 AM , Rating: 2
Yeah, the truth hurts!


Same price, great tools?
By tozz on 11/9/2006 10:55:33 AM , Rating: 1
The PS3 will cost about the same as the PS2 did when it came out in Sweden, it was a crazy success at that price.
All this crap about shitty tools, how come the PS2 has the greatest game library ever made? Is it because the tools sucks? (Games are a matter of taste, but nobody can argue the diversity and quality of the PS2 game library).
I remember Epic saying something like "the PS3 is very easy to develop for, in three months we ported the entire unreal engine".

He is right about one thing, it's about games, and the PS3 games aren't priced any worse than the competition. In a game library over 5years you'll probably have 20-50 games at least, will you hurt badly if you have 18-48 instead? No, didn't think so either (people love to use the "I can get a Wii and a couple of games for the same price").




RE: Same price, great tools?
By static1117 on 11/9/06, Rating: -1
RE: Same price, great tools?
By Aikouka on 11/9/2006 11:27:08 AM , Rating: 2
One of the bigger comments this time around is Sony lost a lot of the exclusive titles that it used to have. I'd say the only two big exclusive titles that the PS3 has are Tekken and Final Fantasy. If you want to go further, you could probably include Virtua Fighter as I believe that's also a PS3-only title. Note that this does not include Sony titles such as Gran Turismo (SCEI produced).

Developers are diversifying now more than ever because there's actually worth in developing for other consoles as well as Sony's offering. The 360 is powerful enough to offer a similar experience and already has a user base, so it's got advantages that developers take into account.


RE: Same price, great tools?
By TheDoc9 on 11/9/2006 12:21:43 PM , Rating: 2
Exactly, and another poster earlier wanted counter points for PS3's success.

How about the name? most people don't read dailytech or several of the other bias news sites, no most people may check the net or buy a few magazines to find a release date and based off of the the generally posative experiance they had with ps2 and ps1, the'll pick up a ps3. Even if it means saving for a little while.

I myself have a 360 for over a year and I still plan on getting a ps3 why? Because i'm not that impressed with the 360 thus far. Plus FF is going to be a Sony only title, that alone will sell millions of ps3's.


RE: Same price, great tools?
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 5:08:27 PM , Rating: 2
Dont say Final fintasy will be PS3 Only unless you're the predient of that company and can make that choice...
the company may release it 1st on PS3, but it could still possibly be on 360 later.. They did release the FF RPG on 360.. so they dont seem to be tied down to being able to do that .. They already sell it on pc as well.. PC users dont have to go buy PS3, Xbox, or Wii..


RE: Same price, great tools?
By robber98 on 11/9/2006 8:26:27 PM , Rating: 2
What? FF XI? OH PLEASE!!


RE: Same price, great tools?
By otispunkmeyer on 11/10/2006 6:04:36 AM , Rating: 2
true

i have a 360 now, i have TDU, PGR3, dead rising....burnout etc all great games that i cant play on the PC and some of which only appear on the 360

but i will be getting a PS3 at some point

GT5 is just gonna be too good to miss, and there ive said it. i bought the 360 because of a handfull of great games, and the plethora of great games coming soon

but im prepared to buy a PS3 in 2008 because of 1 game. a game thats a Playstation exclusive


RE: Same price, great tools?
By akugami on 11/10/2006 12:19:44 AM , Rating: 2
The PS1 had a large library of games because it Sony got lucky and made some smart decisions (mainly using a CD drive instead of super expensive cartridges) and because of the stupidity and hubris of Nintendo. The PS2 got a large library from the momentum of the PS1 as well as having the largest installed user base.

What's happening with the PS3 is, even the developers (which makes all those games for Sony) are a little hesitant to go all out in support of the PS3. Even they are wary of the very high price point and thus, they're hedging their bets by spreading games around to the PS3 and Wii.

One must remember it's the developers that made all those games for the Playstation and Playstation 2, not Sony. If they leave, the huge library of games that has been the PS1 and PS2's strength becomes negligible since most of the hot games will be cross platform and there will be an arguably equally large library of games for both the Xbox 360 and Wii.

The problem isn't the cost of individual games, though the higher development costs for the PS3 threatens to keep that high. The problem is the initial cost of entry. At $500 (and realistically $600 with tax and a new game), it is simply too high of a cost for the more casual gamers. Only the hardcore and households with more disposable income will buy into the PS3 and I can't see it being more than 10 million roughly by next Christmas and 20 million after the 2008 Christmas season.

The reason is that even with a $100 price drop next Christmas it is still too pricey and out for most people. And let's say the Christmas after that in 2008 it drops another $100. That's still $300 for the lower end system and $400 for the higher end one. While much more affordable, it's not like the Xbox 360 won't drop in price nor the Wii. By 2008, you're likely to see a $150 Wii and a $200 premium Xbox 360.


By psychobriggsy on 11/9/2006 9:52:55 AM , Rating: 2
But it will still probably sell some 15-20 million consoles in the first three years of its life, and I expect it to remain in third place throughout that time (XBox360 has a year's headstart on sales, good games and cheaper price, Wii has a very cheap price and fun games and control system and Nintendo can make millions each month). In the longer term maybe cost reductions to expensive PS3 components (Cell, BluRay, RSX) will bring the pricing in line with the XBox360, at which point the PS3 will sell more - especially as BluRay will start to pass the early-adopter phase.

But instead of the generational sales after 4-5 years being 100m, 24m, 24m (PS2, XBox, GC), they'll be far more even, probably 40m, 35m, 30m, although which console attains each figure is still up in the air.




By DingieM on 11/9/2006 10:22:12 AM , Rating: 2
"In the longer term maybe cost reductions to expensive PS3 components (Cell, BluRay, RSX) will bring the pricing in line with the XBox360, at which point the PS3 will sell more - especially as BluRay will start to pass the early-adopter phase."

The Wii and the 360 will also find cheaper means of manufacturing and bring down the end customer price. So your argument will be invalid.


By psychobriggsy on 11/9/2006 2:23:17 PM , Rating: 2
BluRay has far far more room to drop in price than a DVD drive because it is so new. If it really is $300 per device, then it could drop to $50 in three years. A $20 DVD drive will drop to what? $15?

Also it is likely that Microsoft will incorporate the HD-DVD drive into the XBox360 at some point in the future, raising the cost a little.

However I should have pointed out that the greatest threat to the PS3 comes from a year or two of poor sales - because developers will stop developing games (or nearly as worse - not put extra effort into the titles, so no taking advantage of hardware specific features like Cell) - the problem with the GameCube and the Dreamcast.


By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 3:48:20 PM , Rating: 2
It took 5 YEARS for the PS2 I bought at 299.00 to drop to 129.00 that it is now and now it comes with one controller, instead of the two mine came with on launch.

If you expect the price OF PS3 to drop from 600 to 399 anytime in the next year, don't hold your breath. You'll be dead. PS3 needs to sell well now, not later. There is more competition now then when PS2 arrived. There are less console exclusive games now. All reasons PS3 will matter less, even if you don't consider its price which cost wayyy too much for the avg family.

People on these boards act like everyone int his world is dropping everything right now to buy a Bluray OR HD-DVD player.. Well wake up because most don't give a shit. And because of that alone.. PS3 is a game console that cost too much.


nah
By encryptkeeper on 11/9/2006 11:52:46 AM , Rating: 2
I don't think this guy's comments need to be taken to heart, but I think a simple truth may be that it will be a LONG time before there is a price drop on the PS3. Already a year has gone by and no sign of a price drop from Microsoft. That may be good for Sony, but remember all the money they'll have to make up for in high development and manufacturing costs. They won't consider lowering prices until they recoup most of that, and that will be a while.

Put simply, it's a catch 22 with Sony right now. They need to come out of the gate hard and fast and sell lots of consoles and lots of games IMMEDIATELY. But they can't do that because except for the initial crowd that just has to have it, everyone will wait for a price drop. But Sony won't do a price drop until they sell a buttload of systems. See what I mean?




RE: nah
By michal1980 on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
RE: nah
By Etsp on 11/9/2006 1:12:25 PM , Rating: 2
PS2 Was a success because of three reasons: 1. It came way before the xbox did. 2. It Started the Concept of Backwards Compatibility. 3. It was a cheap DVD player.

As for why the DreamCast wasn't successful? I believe that part of the reason was how much the PS2's abilities were hyped up for a year prior to its release. News about the backwards compatiblility and it's ability to play DVD movies made the Dreamcast in comparison a waste of time.

Yes, developers had trouble making games for the PS2 for the first year it was out as they had to adjust to it. That is why it was able to compete with Xbox when it came out a year later. The games that came out for the PS2 in that first year, were mostly bad. Either had too much time devoted to making the graphics look nice or too much time devoted to making it a good game. It was rare to see both good graphics and good gameplay in that first year. The situation this time around is completely different. This time, The PS3 will be one of the last to be released and needs to fight an uphill battle against Xbox360. It will also have to battle against the extremely low cost of the Wii. It doesn't have time for developers to grow accustom to it's unique quirks and with it's high price... only it's name will prevent it from being simply a niche market. And as far as Wii dying out is concerned.... It will be the most agile of the console's this generation. It will not be dying out any time soon...


RE: nah
By michal1980 on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
RE: nah
By encryptkeeper on 11/9/2006 3:36:22 PM , Rating: 2
It's really not a good idea to say the Wii will be considered like the Gamecube in a year, or anytime. The new control scheme will allow new and innovative gameplay that I'm willing to bet Microsoft and Sony will eventually adopt themselves.


RE: nah
By akugami on 11/10/2006 12:58:23 AM , Rating: 2
Well, the reports I'm seeing all say the initial games look very very nice, which isn't too hard considering the graphical prowess of the PS3. The problem is that I'm seeing everyone say the games for it while graphically nice seems like yesterday's games with updated graphics. Not so nice. I actually do expect games with better gameplay to be out after the initial wave of games though. Basically the jury is still out.

I'm going to have to go with the Gameboy as a series to refute the argument against the Wii being able to take the #1 spot. The Gameboy series has never, with the possible exception of the original Gameboy been the most powerful handheld system and yet it is continually the winner in the portable console wars. The PS2 was never the most powerful of the consoles in it's generation and yet it was the winner. Nintendo must play it's cards right and along with a little luck, it is very possible to take over the next generation of consoles.

There is a certain momentum to these kinds of things and the PS3 has been falling falling falling. Nintendo has been rising and if they build on it properly it can propel itself into a close second or even first. Momentum is hard to slow down or reverse unless something major happens. I don't know of anything Sony has planned that will keep it's downward spiral from changing. I do agree that the "cool" product can quickly have cool off in a hurry as we've seen many seasonal products that just lose it's appeal. The problem is the Xbox 360 isn't doing too shabby and the Wii has the most positive buzz going in. The PS3 on the other hand has a lot of negative buzz.

You're predicting the Wii to be a fad. The Wiimote is also highly modifiable since specific games can have different hardware shells to interface with the base Wiimote. Let's face it, games like Dance Dance Revolution had a very long period of popularity and most recently Guitar Heroes. I think the market is much more accepting of different input methods for gaming now than it ever was. And just because you and I don't see any gaming concept currently that will keep the Wiimote controller fresh doesn't mean there won't be any new gaming concept using the Wiimote that will. After all, who new games like Resident Evil, Tetris, Street Fighter, Metroid and Zelda would be so darned fun. They were new and unique gaming concepts at the time but because they were great games or had a unique atmosphere (in the case of Resident Evil) that was just different from anything out there at the time and thus made it's mark.

And don't think this is not possible. Nintendo's patented cross controller gave way to new gameplay on the NES. The SNES controllers shoulder button allowed more gaming precision due to more buttons that were easily accessible. The analogue stick from the N64 (which Sony copied and actually released before Nintendo) was what truly allowed 3D gaming to work on the consoles and feel more real. While I say the touch screen on the DS has been more fad than true game changer, though some games do make good use of it, the Wiimote has the potential to be the next analogue stick or cross controller. An input method that changes the face of gaming. But only if developers make proper use of it.

And please do not compare geeks that frequent tech web sites and buy $400-500 video cards to the average gamer. We might pay those kinds of money for our toys but the average consumer will not.

A lot of people between 20 and 35 may be making decent money but a lot of them also have other priorities like paying off student loans and buying a car and house to secure a future for themselves and family. Yes, they still like games but there are other things that will take up their time. I know for a fact that while I still love games, between work and my girlfriend, it leaves me with very little time to play games.

While HDTV sales are growing, SDTV sales are still at least half of all new TV sales. It's not like HDTV's are the only sets being sold, SDTV's still sell very well. Keep in mind even at $500 for a 32" HDTV, it's out of the price range of many consumers. Obviously as HDTV's get cheaper and cheaper this trend will change but I don't think HDTV's will make up more than roughly 50% of TV sales until after next year.


Atari is not Atari
By DarkPrime on 11/9/2006 11:37:40 AM , Rating: 3
For those who say atari is successful, then why have they reported once again massive losses this past year in revenue? The current company hasn't turned a profit in a couple years I believe (not knocking them, just stating what i've read).

Not only that, but this isn't the same Atari from the 80s. A few years ago when Atari went bankrupt, the company's assets were bought up by another game publisher. After a short time, they renamed themselves "Atari" to keep the atari name alive and associated with video games.




RE: Atari is not Atari
By L1NUXownz1fUR1337 on 11/9/2006 11:45:24 PM , Rating: 2
shite,

they couldn't even support unreal tournament on linux - even thou they would take your money for the linux version.

If you ever been to their HQ you wouldn't seen their play
room didn't have the games that made them who they are - just their new 3dfx games.


A $600 Dollar Console Failing?
By MrSmurf on 11/9/2006 11:35:21 AM , Rating: 3
A $600 Dollar Console Failing? I refuse to believe it, lol.

Sony needs a price drop after they steady shipments in ~March or else they will no longer to top dog in the videogame industry.




RE: A $600 Dollar Console Failing?
By edge929 on 11/15/2006 11:18:55 AM , Rating: 1
Price drop in March huh? When pigs fly dude.

It'll be at LEAST a year from now before they price-drop anything and even then, it's highly doubtful. I believe Sony reps already stated no price drops for 2-3 years to try to recoop (sp?) some of the initial losses, don't recall the article.

If the high-end PS3 were half price ($300 for you mathematically challeneged) I still would have a hard time justifying it. Keep in mind, I consider myself a "hardcore" gamer who just happens to be in the "target" age group of 18-24. I work as a programmer, have for the past 5 years, make really good money for my area and have ZERO debt, pay $400 in rent each month, paid off C5 vette in the garage and I STILL won't buy a PS3 until it comes down a lot.


Why is everyone discounting his opinion?
By MonkeyPaw on 11/9/2006 3:12:52 PM , Rating: 2
I dunno, it doesn't really matter if the guy is still in the business--he used to work in the business and knows what it takes to succeed and even what it takes to fail. His points are quite valid, and many of them are the exact same points that many others have been contending for a while now: PS3 will be the last to arrive, it's the hardest to develop for, Sony is the hardest to work with, it's the most expensive. Sony may have hit it big with PS1 and PS2, but Nintendo and MS have taken different paths since then and are doing rather well with their approaches. Ever notice how the only one trashing XB360 is Sony? Look how many critics of PS3 there are already--especially the big game developers. MS and Nintendo really don't have to say anything abd about PS3, many others are doing that for them. Even Sony is struggling to play up PS3--the best they can do right now is poke fun at MS's add-ons and tell people that the cost is "worth it." No one can say 100% for sure that it will be a failure or a success, but everyone can have an opinion.




By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 4:53:34 PM , Rating: 2
Id think his opinion would matter more.
Being he saw Atari start and succeed.. then have major problems .. then go to some success again making software.

Im saying is he knows failure.. just like everyone does and has.. its easy to look back.. give some advice on what not to do..

Sony.. On what not to do.. Don't make a console too our of price for the massess ! You need those masses to sell enough games and have enough developers confidence that when they make a game.. it'll make them money.. Instead of.. whats happening today.. "Don't take a chance" "Develop it" "Then Port it to 2 or 3 consoles"


He clearly is not a fan of sony
By KeithP on 11/9/2006 9:16:28 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
"For years and years Sony has been a very difficult company to deal with from a developer standpoint. They could get away with their arrogance and capriciousness because they had an installed base," Bushnell said.


That pretty much sums up where he is coming from. He clearly dislikes Sony. It seems to me he is just using the opportunity to try and push some negative buzz on the PS3 while trying to pump up their competitors. The PS3 may indeed fail. Sony has a tough road ahead of themselves but I am going to have to agree with the "he isn't relevant" crowd.




RE: He clearly is not a fan of sony
By ghemml on 11/10/2006 1:11:55 AM , Rating: 2
If you are a software/game developing company, and ask/pay for Sony's SDK. And take them 6 months to reply you. How will you feel?

I want to sell my products and at the same time market Sony's flagship. But if I have to send so many emails to get them to respond. I will try to find other better Company which likewise Microsoft.

Time is money, "IF" Sony in this case provide lousy software support. I'm not just only wasting my time, but also wasting my money cause it keep delaying my development.

I experience this before, its very frustrating when u have a 2 years project, while trying to get the software to work with your system. Support doesn't seems to exist.

Its almost like spending $50,000 on a Simulation software with only 7 days warranty.


Hmm...
By retrospooty on 11/9/2006 9:29:43 AM , Rating: 3
"For years and years Sony has been a very difficult company to deal with from a developer standpoint"

Development, product management, PR/Marketing, R&D , Quality control, and just about any other aspect I can think of.

Kharma is biting sony pretty hard these days.




By zsouthboy on 11/9/2006 10:35:04 AM , Rating: 1
Discrediting the source does not discredit the argument.

Saying that OMG ATARI IS TEH DED LOLZ does not help.




By L1NUXownz1fUR1337 on 11/9/2006 11:41:11 PM , Rating: 2
Linux ownz all you appleTechites.

Linux is on the ps3 ,

the # of m$ haters > the # of sony haters thus xbox 336 will lose.

Linux : welcome to the free world.


PS3
By hunter44102 on 11/9/2006 9:42:24 AM , Rating: 2
I don't believe that anyone will know how the PS3 will do ahead of time. If they provide great games and eventually bring the price down, it may sell. There seems to be a demand for it already based on the pre-orders.

The problem Sony has this time is the 360, a system at the same level but cheaper, and it has a 1 year head start. It has shown to be fairly popular even at the $400 price level.





His Comment is relavent
By ViperROhb34 on 11/9/2006 3:22:30 PM , Rating: 2
This statement makes sense.

This is not the first developer, software company, big company or even financial forecaster to say Sony's Price Point is bad for the Average Consumer.

Sure they could still sell millions of PS3's. Lets say they sell 30 million of 3 years. They need to sell STAGGERING numbers of PS3's to make a profit. Here's why. They are losing more money then ever per single console unit. Only a large installed base of units will allow for the tremendous software sales they need to recover from the loses. The recovery could takes years even if they sell moderately well.

Im single male who makes approxiamtely 32K a year.. around 16 dollars an hour. I could afford a PS3, but I don't like living in dept so I don't use credit cards much. I live for the moment without being in debt.

There are alot of families who live in debt.. mainly because there are alot of families of 3 to 4 people in this world living off the same income as I or allittle more.

I've owned all the Nintendo's ( thank my parents for the 1st couple ) .. I bought a PS2 ( I never owned the 1st ) .. and I I still have my PS2 ( bought a seocnd one, the 1st wore/broke ) and now have a 360.. I just got Gears Of War.

I know a few who bought 360's and barely afforded it.
It's not features we're comparing, or who's better.
It's the PRICE OF ENTRY I could argue all day long that by the time I bought my 16 thousand dollar car and upgraded I should've bought the 24K Mustang V-8, but life doesn't work that way. We buy what we can afford when we can afford it.

Just a realty check. PS2 was 299.00 when i got my 1st.. ( its been 5yrs for it to drop to 129.00 ) .. It continues to sell well, especially to poorer families who want a good system that has a large library. It's one reason Wii looks appealing.. combine its lower price with a upgraded, more powerful GameCube internals, add better controls and you have developers who have room to make better games off of a platform they already understand.

Xbox 360 looks to be off to a good start and they are improving well for the 1st year they've been out.




This just about sums it up
By bunnyfubbles on 11/9/2006 3:54:09 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
They could get away with their arrogance and capriciousness because they had an installed base


So true. Sony scored big with the PS1, the PS2 had no major advantage in its generation other than its installed base thanks to PSX/1...well I guess it also had the advantage that it came out a year before its competition...




RE: This just about sums it up
By michal1980 on 11/9/06, Rating: 0
Wii > X-Box 360 > PS3
By knowom on 11/9/2006 10:49:09 PM , Rating: 2
Wii is gonna do really well it's affordable, free online play, has old classics, innovative controller, plus and perhaps most importantly nintendo's got alot of game developers this time around. That's basically why PS, PS2, and NES all did so well. PS3 is just too expensive right now so it probably won't do too well at launch plus sony has lost it's ironfist over alot of it's publishers it might skate by, but wii will likely do the best out of the three followed by xbox360 unless something substantial changes.




PS3 failure
By 429killer on 11/10/2006 3:08:17 AM , Rating: 2
If Sony loses this generation it will be because M$ just has way too much disposable cash. It is no secret that Sony is in big financial trouble. Companies like Samsung have taken a huge chunk of Sony's business. Xbox 360 will outsell PS3 this christmas soley due to avalibility. Games like Gears of War will convince consumers to pull the trigger on 360 even thought they wanted PS3. By the time PS3's become, avaliable M$ will counter with Halo 3, which will be light years ahead of any first party software that Sony has to offer at that time. The nail in the coffin will be a big 360 price drop for christmas 07. Sony will not be able to counter this because of the huge loss taken on every PS3 and their overall financial trouble. Victory M$.




GO & TRY IT OUT
By crystal clear on 11/10/2006 5:41:18 AM , Rating: 2
LETS go the practical way-why predict,why guess,why forecast
on/about PS3-JUST HAVE A PS3 thorughly revued by DT to see,
what this product is worth technically & price wise.

I judge a product on its technicalities/usage/quality/price
etc & not on its manufacturers.

As for games, those ATARI days are gone no more,NOW its
ON LINE GAMING-INTERACTIVE GAMES-& more to come.
Its whole new ball game.

You buy a product not based on reviews but testing it/using it/trying it out/to feel it/ YOURSELF at the store.

SO GO TO A STORE & TRY IT OUT & then comment- this applies to all without any exceptions.




ps3 bad all around
By masachris on 11/10/2006 7:22:20 AM , Rating: 2
i think ps3 will fail in one major category, online gaming. ms has an awesome live system and the wii will have classic games. what does the ps3 have? nothing. egm wrote a article about gran turismo hd's online stratagy, its gonna ship with around 15 cars and two tracks for 59.99usd with 144 more cars online and 15 or so more tracks for between 1.50usd and 3.00usd. you do the math thats 320usd for one game. you call that a killer app? it looks like sony is planning a similar online strategy with all games. if you ask me thats a joke. just like 3DO all graphics no gameplay.




Bushnell: Irrelevent Has-Been...
By ToeCutter on 11/10/2006 11:33:32 AM , Rating: 2
Wow, the response to this article indicates that few posters remember who Nolan Bushnell is and how many times he's been completely WRONG on a variety of gaming predictions.

This guy is a talking head. He's commented on every single console since SNES and he's been wrong on just about every prediction he's ever made.

I encourage everyone to go out a Google-Fu Bushnell before taking even marginal interest in his comments.

The guy's a washed up has-been. These comments are the only way he seems to make press these days.

Whatever, Nolan. No one is listening...




By BubbaJoe TBoneMalone on 11/11/2006 9:38:50 AM , Rating: 2
Fortunately, I was able to enjoy Pong then Atari when they were first released but if anyone who wants to see a glimpse of video console/gaming history, check out "The Video Game Revolution" on PBS. It's in high definition too! It's really fasinating how it all started way back in the 60's!!

Here's the link for local listings - http://www.pbs.org/kcts/videogamerevolution/




Moderated
By Spar on 11/10/06, Rating: -1
"I mean, if you wanna break down someone's door, why don't you start with AT&T, for God sakes? They make your amazing phone unusable as a phone!" -- Jon Stewart on Apple and the iPhone

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