The Death of Moore's Law: T-Minus 15 Years and Counting
Michael Hoffman & Kristopher Kubicki
September 19, 2007 11:46 AM
comment(s) - last by
A young Gordon Moore circa 1975
Gordon Moore took part in the afternoon keynote during IDF 2007
The fall edition of the 2007 Intel Developer Forum (IDF) is officially underway from the San Francisco Moscone Center. The Tuesday morning keynote featured more
details about the
as one of the main points of the discussion.
In a later session, Dr. Moira Gunn, host of NPR Tech Nation, hosted a fireside chat with Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder and creator of Moore's Law. Moore received a well-deserved standing ovation from the crowded conference hall packed with thousands of attendees more than willing to respect a Silicon Valley legend.
Of course, the question on everyone's mind was the validity of Moore's Law. Specifically, whether or not it holds up today the same way it did when Moore first documented his observations almost forty years ago.
Moore's Law -- actually more of a conjecture -- essentially states the number of transistors placed on an integrated circuit doubles every two years. His observation helped outline trends the semiconductor industry for more than 40 years.
"We have another decade, a decade and a half, before we hit something that is fairly fundamental," Moore said during the session. That something "fundamental" is material science. Even the most advanced lithography conceivable today can't eliminate the brick wall that is the nanoscale.
Even at some point, lining up individual atoms no longer becomes feasible for transistor design. Researchers from Intel are already easing into the field of using carbon nanotubes for processor interconnects; a team from
the University of Pennsylvania just announced a new method for storing data
via phase-changing nanowires
"It's an exciting time," he said. "I'd love to come back in 100 years and see what happened in the meantime."
Of course, even Moore's understanding of transistor trends is no match for the prowess of ambitious engineers. Conventional computing principles go out the window with
the advent of quantum computing
, for example. Other types of alternative computing, including biological-based neural-computing, does not readily translate to transistor-count -- but that hasn't stopped researchers from
making enormous progress in the last few years
The death of Moore's Law is imminent, but new research and new materials assure that its successor will pack the same punch.
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RE: Already dead
9/20/2007 1:34:15 AM
U have no idea of whats coming up in tech and u make claims as if u have seen the future. SO EAT this,
1) What stops the size of processors from getting big ?
We can have a processor as big as a human brain and billion times more capable than it. Our legs are fast but wheels are faster.
2) We can use one virtual soft processor that uses a billion other processors for its simulation. So in theory we can have a software emulation of processor running on trillions of processors with a zillion Mhz speeds.
3) we have just began 3D chip designs so expect things to grow in ^3 soon.
4) 4D Chips will have no limits of speeds.
RE: Already dead
9/20/2007 2:02:38 AM
what does having bigger processors have to do with fitting with doubling density?
RE: Already dead
9/20/2007 4:45:25 AM
Could you please restate that none of it makes sense to me.
If you're being sarcastic, I don't get it.
RE: Already dead
9/20/2007 2:10:18 PM
I think you missed my point, which is that manufacturing capability seems to be outstripping our ability to design chips that complicated. As the OP pointed out, a large portion of the transitors are RAM cache already.
4D chips - that's funny! You may as well go ahead and patent that idea.
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