The Death of Moore's Law: T-Minus 15 Years and Counting
Michael Hoffman & Kristopher Kubicki
September 19, 2007 11:46 AM
comment(s) - last by
A young Gordon Moore circa 1975
Gordon Moore took part in the afternoon keynote during IDF 2007
The fall edition of the 2007 Intel Developer Forum (IDF) is officially underway from the San Francisco Moscone Center. The Tuesday morning keynote featured more
details about the
as one of the main points of the discussion.
In a later session, Dr. Moira Gunn, host of NPR Tech Nation, hosted a fireside chat with Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder and creator of Moore's Law. Moore received a well-deserved standing ovation from the crowded conference hall packed with thousands of attendees more than willing to respect a Silicon Valley legend.
Of course, the question on everyone's mind was the validity of Moore's Law. Specifically, whether or not it holds up today the same way it did when Moore first documented his observations almost forty years ago.
Moore's Law -- actually more of a conjecture -- essentially states the number of transistors placed on an integrated circuit doubles every two years. His observation helped outline trends the semiconductor industry for more than 40 years.
"We have another decade, a decade and a half, before we hit something that is fairly fundamental," Moore said during the session. That something "fundamental" is material science. Even the most advanced lithography conceivable today can't eliminate the brick wall that is the nanoscale.
Even at some point, lining up individual atoms no longer becomes feasible for transistor design. Researchers from Intel are already easing into the field of using carbon nanotubes for processor interconnects; a team from
the University of Pennsylvania just announced a new method for storing data
via phase-changing nanowires
"It's an exciting time," he said. "I'd love to come back in 100 years and see what happened in the meantime."
Of course, even Moore's understanding of transistor trends is no match for the prowess of ambitious engineers. Conventional computing principles go out the window with
the advent of quantum computing
, for example. Other types of alternative computing, including biological-based neural-computing, does not readily translate to transistor-count -- but that hasn't stopped researchers from
making enormous progress in the last few years
The death of Moore's Law is imminent, but new research and new materials assure that its successor will pack the same punch.
This article is over a month old, voting and posting comments is disabled
What about Microsoft?
9/19/2007 2:29:05 PM
Doesn't Moore's Law apply to the install size of Windows too? lol
RE: What about Microsoft?
9/19/2007 2:48:53 PM
The post below says it better...
RE: What about Microsoft?
9/20/2007 2:35:31 AM
Above now, at least the theory of relativity is still working right?
(i do know what the real theory of relativity is)
"It looks like the iPhone 4 might be their Vista, and I'm okay with that." -- Microsoft COO Kevin Turner
"Nehalem" Taped-out and Running Windows
September 18, 2007, 12:04 PM
Researchers Develop Nanowires for Storing Computer Data
September 18, 2007, 6:22 PM
Scientists Discover "Hidden" Order for Quantum Computer Advancement
July 31, 2007, 9:20 AM
Researchers Produce Chemically Operated Neuro-memory Chip
May 30, 2007, 11:12 AM
Google's Gleaming Glass HQ Gets Mountain View Snub, LinkedIn Gets the Love
May 7, 2015, 6:58 AM
Tech's Tax Day Fortunate Few: Qualcomm, Xerox, GE, et al. Pay Little or No Taxes
April 15, 2015, 11:30 AM
LinkNYC Terminals to Blanket New York City With Free WiFi, Free Calls, and Ads
November 17, 2014, 6:50 PM
Microsoft is Open-Sourcing Most of .NET, Adding OS X and Linux Support
November 12, 2014, 8:27 PM
Home Depot Lost 53 Million Emails, Blames Windows, Buys Execs New Macs
November 9, 2014, 5:00 PM
Former NSA Lawyer: If Google, Apple Encrypt User Data, They’ll Wither on the Vine Like Blackberry
November 6, 2014, 12:15 PM
Latest Blog Posts
Sceptre Airs 27", 120 Hz. 1080p Monitor/HDTV w/ 5 ms Response Time for $220
Dec 3, 2014, 10:32 PM
Costco Gives Employees Thanksgiving Off; Wal-Mart Leads "Black Thursday" Charge
Oct 29, 2014, 9:57 PM
"Bear Selfies" Fad Could Turn Deadly, Warn Nevada Wildlife Officials
Oct 28, 2014, 12:00 PM
The Surface Mini That Was Never Released Gets "Hands On" Treatment
Sep 26, 2014, 8:22 AM
ISIS Imposes Ban on Teaching Evolution in Iraq
Sep 17, 2014, 5:22 PM
More Blog Posts
Copyright 2016 DailyTech LLC. -
Terms, Conditions & Privacy Information