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The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the worst drought in US history
A primary tenet of global warming alarmism is invalidated.

A recurring theme in my past columns is that a moderate degree of global warming is likely to be beneficial to mankind. Al Gore, on the other hand, says climate change is already causing catastrophic results. In testimony before Congress last March, he stated, "droughts are [already] becoming longer and more intense". But the findings of a group of University of Wisconsin-Madison researchers say otherwise.

The scientists, led by Gemma Narisma, examined 100 years of global rainfall data. Using sophisticated wavelet analysis methods, they identified 30 cases of severe droughts lasting 10 or more years. The results showed the number of droughts dropping sharply over time. From 1900-1920, seven droughts, another seven from from 1920-1940, and eight from 1940-1960. But after that, the picture changes. In the period 1960-1980, only five droughts were recorded, and from 1980-2000 (the warmest period of all), only three occurred. Furthermore, of the most severe droughts, none began in the last 30 years..

The researchers found another surprising result. Changes in rainfall levels are not only much more common than previously thought, but they tend to occur in a very abrupt, unexplained manner. More proof that climate change is part of nature.

The work represents the first systematic survey of abrupt climate changes that have occurred in recent history. Professor Johnathan Foley, who also participated in the research, says the study is important, "because previous work largely focused on ancient climates or theoretical changes in future climates".

The findings are published in Geophysical Research Letters.



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RE: Global dimming
By masher2 (blog) on 9/12/2007 10:18:15 AM , Rating: 5
> "But who's to say that the early 1900s did not experience an unusually high number of droughts? "

Exactly. However the same logic applies to global temperatures. Perhaps the early 1900s were unusually cool, and we're simply returning to a more natural environment?

100 years of climate records -- be they temperature, rainfall, or storm activity -- is an incredibly small slice of planetary history. Drawing conclusions from them is always risky business.

> " I'm just pointing out that the article doesn't really invalidate the theory that warming is causing more droughts"

To be more precise, it invalidates the theory that warming is causing more serious droughts.

> "although he seems to argue [GW] has nothing to do with human behavior"

Certainly mankind is having some sort of impact; UHI (urban heat island) effects alone are unequivocal. However, the degree of is unclear, and anthropogenic effects may well turn out to be far outweighed by natural causes.

Furthermore, its even less clear what the overall impact of global warming will be. My personal opinion (supported by evidence in the "related story" above) is that the warming we're expected to experience over the next century or two will be primarily beneficial to mankind.


RE: Global dimming
By Lightning III on 9/12/07, Rating: -1
RE: Global dimming
By porkpie on 9/12/2007 2:03:28 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
and who knows what real beneficial impact...
The important point of your post is right there. Who knows? Certainly not you or anyone else. Homo Sapiens have been around for a few million years. We survived the last few times the ice caps vanished. I think we'll do just fine this time.

quote:
everything is pointing at co2 for the last mass extiction
Wrong again. The last major extinction was the K/T event, which almost certainly was caused by meteor impact.

quote:
No you myopic ass
Why so much emotion? Are you really such a fanatic you can't handle honest debate?


RE: Global dimming
By Lightning III on 9/12/07, Rating: 0
RE: Global dimming
By TomZ on 9/12/2007 4:20:14 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
to me he is the guy from the thank you for smoking movie, just insert global warming is a myth instead of smoking

I think quite possibly it's the other way around. The global warming enthusiasts, such as yourself, are like the general public who once believed from listening to the "consensus" from "health experts" (doctors) that smoking is good for you. At the time there were probably "smoking is healthy" skeptics, just like there are AGW skeptics today.


RE: Global dimming
By dever on 9/12/2007 2:04:03 PM , Rating: 2
Mature and compelling.


RE: Global dimming
By TomZ on 9/12/2007 3:03:02 PM , Rating: 2
NOT.


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