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Sony's CEDIA Sales Data  (Source: AnandTech)
Sony lets its Blu-ray numbers slip show at CEDIA

Back in May, DailyTech caught flak for a column that claimed late-April HD DVD and Blu-ray sales were in a virtual tie. A lot of reader’s claimed unreliable data was used, or even making figures up entirely

Well, courtesy of Anandtech's CEDIA coverage, the world now has Sony's official word on the matter, with a rare look not at just percentages, but actual sales volume. This Sony viewgraph (shown to the right) was intended to show to sales superiority of Blu-ray, but it shows a few other trends that are particularly interesting. For one, there is confirmation of DailyTech’s claim of a sales tie in April, albeit a brief one. But the raw data reveals an even more interesting trend. Sales for both formats have been on a declining trend since December.

Yes, both are trending downward -- with Blu-ray dropping more sharply than HD DVD.

Now, you can call this just the standard post Christmas drop. But is it? The Christmas season is the high sales point for consumer electronics and big-ticket items ... but movie purchases don't exactly fall into this category. A lot of people went out and bought PS3s and standalone HD players for Christmas. But it seems that after the initial rush wore off, they lost interest in buying new movies for those players.

When you realize that additional players are continually being sold after Christmas, the drop in movie sales is even more worrisome. A new format being adopted is supposed to see sales rising, not dropping.

With combined sales for both formats only in the 60K discs/week range, clearly consumers are still waiting to buy into HD. What's the missing factor still? Cheaper players? Cheaper discs? A better selection of movies? Greater HDTV penetration? Dual-format players? All of the above?

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Prices and Selection
By Larrymon2000 on 9/6/2007 12:04:46 PM , Rating: 2
I think most people just simply want more movie choices and prices on players that are down to the 150-200 range. It's the same as when DVD technology came out. I'm sure not many people would drop many hundreds of dollars on a player. Many people have HDTV, but I guess DVD quality is good enough for most.




RE: Prices and Selection
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 12:12:07 PM , Rating: 2
I know for me, I have a pretty extensive home theater setup and library, but I have a lot invested in DVDs. I know the high def players support standard DVD, but I'm concerned about future proofing my choice before investing thousands in a particular format library.


RE: Prices and Selection
By peritusONE on 9/6/2007 12:38:54 PM , Rating: 5
For me, I love my HD-DVD add-on drive for my XBOX 360. However, I only own 6 movies compared to my 100+ DVDs. Why? Because you still can't get HD discs for "cheap". Most of my DVD collection came from movies that dipped in the sub-$10 range before I would buy them. The current HD-DVD discs I own I've been able to find for $20 or less.

With most HD-DVD and Bluray discs still commanding an average of $30 per movie at retail (some have the nerve to charge $39.99 per copy), sales just aren't going to be that big. Once new movie releases are introduced at $20, then I will certainly buy more, along with a lot of people.

Just my opinion, though....I don't claim to actually know anything about the HD movie market.


RE: Prices and Selection
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 1:04:41 PM , Rating: 2
I've got to admit, the 360 add on drive would be my cheapest option into the High Def media circus, as I already have a 360.

But, you've already pointed out the main reason I haven't made the jump. The price of movies. I have hundreds of DVDs, buying several amonth. That kind of investment in high def, to see the players not be made any more, and trusting the one I bought to stay working, or not break, is a bigger financial risk that any hardware.


RE: Prices and Selection
By Christopher1 on 9/7/2007 9:02:08 AM , Rating: 2
That is the main reason that I have heard from other people as to why they have not gone to Blu-Ray or HD-DVD: they don't want to get stuck with a player that does not work anymore or have it break and them not sell players anymore, like some people during another era got socked.


RE: Prices and Selection
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 1:27:05 PM , Rating: 5
I'm guessing this is the same reason why HD movie sales are flattening out... HD-DVD/BD owners are willing to buy *new* movies they *don't* already own in HD, but they're not going to rebuy their movie collection in HD, not until you can pick them up 4 for 20 at blockbuster or in the $10 and under bins at walmart.


RE: Prices and Selection
By walk2k on 9/6/2007 2:37:27 PM , Rating: 2
Yes, I think that is right, and it goes back to title selection. The release of day-and-date HD-format discs has been pretty slow.

I've re-purchased only 4 movies, Unforgiven and Road Warrior which were both terrible, early DVD releases (lousy transfers, non-anamorphic) Pirates of the Carribean (the first one) because I couldn't resist the first good Disney release with 24bit TrueHD, etc... and The Fifth Element, because I am a total nerd.....

The rest of my purchases were new titles and/or ones I did not already own on DVD - Casino Royale, The Departed, etc.


RE: Prices and Selection
By stephenap on 9/6/2007 8:57:12 PM , Rating: 2
if you could rent them then more people would by the players and then buy the movies ( im in oz and cant rent any BD or HD here not sure in the states )


RE: Prices and Selection
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 9:52:03 PM , Rating: 2
Only HD movie rentals I've seen here (U.S., North Carolina) is off of X-Box live market place. Not exactly HD-DVD, but also not bad to be totally honest.


RE: Prices and Selection
By RubberJohnny on 9/6/2007 11:44:27 PM , Rating: 2
I'm in oz too and i've seen BR for rent at my local blockbuster - Indooroopilly, QLD. Granted there was only a really small selection and they were positioned near the PS3 games.


RE: Prices and Selection
By zinfamous on 9/7/2007 6:51:58 PM , Rating: 3
the blockbuster and Hollywood Video in my nieghborhood both have meagre HDDVD/BR sections.

Netflix, however....doesn't limit your options to where you live :) (In the states, at least)


RE: Prices and Selection
By SeeManRun on 9/6/2007 12:15:02 PM , Rating: 3
I think paying nearly twice as much for a movie on HD vs DVD is a major reason, as well as getting more HD into Blockbuster. Not to even mention all the DRM crap that comes into play, forcing you to upgrade everything and not just the actual player. I am not compelled to upgrade, as DVD's look pretty good already, and the increase in resolution is not enough reason. I'd rather have HD-TV than buying HD movies.


RE: Prices and Selection
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 12:23:54 PM , Rating: 3
I do watch Hi Def TV and I'm not too bothered about the cost of the players. Its the cost of the library that goes with it, and making sure that is the right choice.

If I could be sure both formats would survive, then that would be acceptable, but all the trime they are trying to 'win' a war, then it only leaves uncertainty.


RE: Prices and Selection
By Vanners on 9/6/2007 11:08:15 PM , Rating: 2
I agree, DRM is a deal breaker - first they ask you to pay more for the player and the disc - then they give you the same quality as before unless you have the right screen and connections.

If you have a screen that is capable of HD, why down-res because the connector is the wrong format!

The arguement is between Piracy and Highway Robbery. I don't do piracy, but the only way to avoid highway robbery is to avoid the format - which I have done.


RE: Prices and Selection
By othercents on 9/6/2007 1:44:44 PM , Rating: 2
Thats exactly true and thats why I think the HDDVD sales are not as erratic as the BR sales. The BR consumers are video junkies and the HDDVD consumers are more average Jo users. There are spikes in the BR side because video junkies will buy the latest movie with disregard to price while the HDDVD consumers are consistently looking at price to determine if they should buy.

The other thing to note is if someone might have purchased an HD player and mostly play DVDs on it with only a small HD collection (IE 5 free HD movies). I expect this to happen more often with HDDVD than BR.

Other


RE: Prices and Selection
By luhar49 on 9/7/2007 12:59:03 AM , Rating: 2
There was a 3 for 2 sale of HD movies on Amazon recently. I ordered 6.

I am certainly not buying another new movie DVD now. I will just wait for a good deal to turn up on HD discs and buy them.

For those sitting on the fence...are you going to continue buying DVDs for new movie releases for next 3-4 years hoping for one HD format to die ?? What if both formats stay ? Would you rebuy HD versions of these movies? Or start your HD journey from that point only...


RE: Prices and Selection
By MrWho on 9/7/2007 7:33:01 PM , Rating: 3
"For those sitting on the fence...are you going to continue buying DVDs for new movie releases for next 3-4 years hoping for one HD format to die ?? What if both formats stay ? Would you rebuy HD versions of these movies? Or start your HD journey from that point only..."

Continue buy DVD / Wait for one format to die - Yes
Rebuy HD versions of DVD - Only if real cheap


RE: Prices and Selection
By 9nails on 9/8/2007 12:26:17 AM , Rating: 3
quote:
For those sitting on the fence...are you going to continue buying DVDs for new movie releases for next 3-4 years hoping for one HD format to die ?? What if both formats stay ? Would you rebuy HD versions of these movies? Or start your HD journey from that point only...


Looking at all the technology that I own which would be incompatible with HD, (TV Set, Stereo Receiver, ReplayTV, Cable Box...) I only see dollar figures to replace all of this stuff. It's not enticing knowing that there are format wars, incompatible devices, and substantially higher costs or subscription services associated with the switch. Video is sufficient in Standard Definition for me until my current tech catches on fire or swims in a flood, or worse. My video watching habits are not precedent enough in my life to warrant so much money to be thrown at it.

Will I wait 3-4 years for a format to die?
Yeah, and perhaps longer.

What if both formats stay?
I'd pick the most affordable of the two at the time it is necessary. But personally I feel that, download to DVR will be the future. (As long as it comes with backwards compatibility so that I can burn a standard DVD to watch on the road, in a hotel, on a portable player or phone etc...)

Would you rebuy HD versions of these movies? Or start your HD journey from that point only...
Someone would need to give me a significant trade-in deal to get me to repurchase my library in a new format. I'm looking at over 200 DVD's that I own now. Since I'm not a current HD owner, I can only respect the feedback from others and knowing that they have been happy with quality upscalling devices on their old standard definition disc's to say that I'll happily stay with my well collected library.


RE: Prices and Selection
By TomCorelis (blog) on 9/8/2007 3:10:13 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
As long as it comes with backwards compatibility so that I can burn a standard DVD to watch on the road, in a hotel, on a portable player or phone etc...
I can almost promise you, it won't. The media companies are very pensive about allowing people to do anything with this new, high-quality video. They know they've failed in the past, and they seem to want to force consumers to cede control to them at any cost.

Why am I not switching? The market, and a good chunk of the consumers, seems to have forgotten that a lot of people are just flat-out broke. Like me... and I have a whole queue of other technology purchases to do before I update to this stupid high-def mania.... new monitor, ipod classic, playstation3.... and somewhere in that an HDTV to watch all this stuff on. A good chunk of media consumers--young adults and college kids--simply can't afford to switch.

Also, the format wars are BS. I'm rooting for Blu-Ray (high capacity disc is way more important) but I won't buy in to it until the dust has settled.


Different trends
By GreenEnvt on 9/6/2007 12:03:02 PM , Rating: 2
Looking at that chart, HD-DVD's average seems to be about the same all the way across (post december). Their final point on the graph is about the same as the initial post Christmas drop.
Bluray is lower then their initial drop though, they have been going steadily downwards.




RE: Different trends
By deeznuts on 9/6/2007 12:41:24 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah but if you look, at the far right, Blu-Ray has a huge spike at the end of the graph, while HD DVD doesn't, which averages out.

These are weekly sales I believe? BD's graph has huge peak to trough dips and raises, which we can all assume tie-in to movie releases. The causes for the trough to peak back to troughs? Give me some movie release dates that correlate to each week and we can see.


RE: Different trends
By othercents on 9/6/2007 1:37:26 PM , Rating: 2
I think we are looking this the wrong way.

If you take into account that most BR buyers are video junkies where video quality is more important than price and HDDVD buyers are just average Jo consumers where price is just as important as video quality then the graph makes sense. The BR owners are buying movies as soon as they release without regard to price because they want the best immediately. The HDDVD owners are buying movies as they want and has nothing to do with new releases, but of long term investment.

This also shows a significant trend that might give us to first glimpse into which platform will win. The average Jo consumers are the ones that make up the majority of the consumers and those are the people companies will want to target for this type of product.

Other


RE: Different trends
By ChristopherO on 9/6/2007 3:34:14 PM , Rating: 3
Owning both, and not caring what color my movie cases happens to be gives me an interesting perspective.

HD DVDs are more advanced... The interactivity is better, firmware upgrades are easier, the movie presentation is totally indistinguishable from BD. The non-final BD specs are hurting Sony. I'm not thrilled with needing to continually buy new hardware in order to do things that should have been there last July. I'm patiently waiting to upgrade to the Samsung BD-UP5000 so my BD player will have similar functionality to my 18-month-old Toshiba.

For instance, one can watch 300 on both formats. They look the same, both have lossless audio, and the HD DVD format allows PiP so you can watch the whole film in green-screen how it was actually shot. The argument of "BD holds more data" is irrelevant except when considering data applications (games, archival, etc). Case in point, the Heroes HD DVD set has 2 hours 53 minutes of video per disc, a DD+ sountrack, and PiP video commentary on many of the episodes. The quality is sterling... The only drawback is no TrueHD, which is Universal's choice and not a data limitation. Every film could contain a TrueHD soundtrack but studios appear to be stubborn (I'm guessing Dolby must require an additional licensing fee? In that regard LPCM is free but huge from a data perspective).

In the long term, I think most players will be universal and no one will care what color their media happens to be. Contrary to popular belief this is nothing like VHS v. Betamax. The discs are the same size. The decoding chips are more or less identical. The barrier to a dual format player is the extra licensing costs and an OS tweak to support both XML and Java. Technically it isn't difficult.

People that want one format to die are being ridiculous. That's like saying "I don't give a crap about your financial investment, I want you to throw everything out the window because I like another company better." I'm not so selfish that I want some guy to lose $3000 because I don't like the color of his movie cases. That's arrogant and mean spirited. You can't put the genie in the bottle. Live with it and learn to co-exist.


RE: Different trends
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 4:01:39 PM , Rating: 3
Or a bit more like saying "I'd like there to be just one standard so I don't have to spend extra $$$ to play every move I want to see"... One or the other dieing is good for consumers, my preference is Blueray dieing, you've pointed out a lot of the reasons here... Higher cost, for a lower cost unfinished product.... And yet sony is totally confident they've already won!!!


RE: Different trends
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 4:10:03 PM , Rating: 2
that should read "lower quality", though I guess lower quality referres more to the series of glitches found in early blueray players that I can only hope are finally resolved (picture that is too dark etc).


RE: Different trends
By leexgx on 9/6/2007 11:47:25 PM , Rating: 2
on the PC side i refer BD to be the Prefered Burner/reader holds alot more the dvds 4.4gb/9gb, HD 15/30gb, BD 25/50gb (Yes HD-dvd will have 51gb but that be tripple layer BD tripple layer will be min 75gb or maybe alot more)

as most users will be buning single layer disks BD better format as i am asumeing it costs more to use an HD-dvd dual layer disk over an single layer BD disk

for the HD side i realy do not care as long as dual format players come out later on it not matter or just get an PS3 and convert any HD-dvd stuff (download) into an BD disk there $£$ loss thay should Not stick with one format and block out an bigger market does not matter that what the image shows its been selling 3:1 ratio and if you only sell to HD-dvd only your loseing 2-4 sales to each BD not sold


RE: Different trends
By Christopher1 on 9/7/2007 9:08:42 AM , Rating: 2
Well, I agree with the space thing, however..... I don't have much in my collection that is over 51GB.... actually, come to think of it I have NOTHING that is over 51GB's, to be honest.

I would prefer that HD-DVD became the standard even for archival, or that both standards were supported on one burner, so that I could pick&choose based on the cost of the disks.


RE: Different trends
By leexgx on 9/7/2007 3:20:31 PM , Rating: 2
you just thinging of one thing over 50gb more thinking on the lines of back up for SD content that i have in Xvid


RE: Different trends
By DingieM on 9/7/2007 9:29:27 AM , Rating: 2
I believe HD-DVD already has single-sided 3 layer 45GB discs...


RE: Different trends
By leexgx on 9/7/2007 3:11:38 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
I believe HD-DVD already has single-sided 3 layer 45GB discs...


? its an triple layer disk @ 51gb
BD tripple layer is 75gb but seen rumors mite be able to get it to 100gb (33gb per layer)


RE: Different trends
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 4:06:20 PM , Rating: 2
Both formats continuing to exist will probably the best solution. It would engender competition and probably lead to pressure to keep prices low.

A disparity in sales for one format or the other does not really matter, as AMD keeps Intel on it's toes without a huge market share. Granted, its not the best analogy, as the criteria is for a fixed standard, rather than increasing perfomance.

The competition would be good, if only there was not exclusives for one side or the other. if the formats survive long enough, I think many content provides will support both formats.


RE: Different trends
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 4:22:53 PM , Rating: 2
That will be true assuming Dual format players drop in price significantly... The same condition is true for why dual format dvd burners are the norm these days.


RE: Different trends
By TomZ on 9/6/2007 4:31:44 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Both formats continuing to exist will probably the best solution. It would engender competition and probably lead to pressure to keep prices low.

I disagree - competition at the format level is not necessary; instead, competition between player manufacturers is what is important.

For example, DVD had effectively no competition, yet it enjoyed a very wide acceptance, and yielded cheap, high-quality players and tons of content.

I agree with the widely-held belief that having two competiting incompatible formats is slowing acceptance by consumers, at least until cheap dual-format players effectively erase the differences between the two formats.


RE: Different trends
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 5:15:03 PM , Rating: 2
I think we actually agree.

Having two competing standards is undnecessary; however, now that we do and the investment of consumers means that one side losing will have a detrimental effect. Therefore, the best solution is the one that has the least detrimental effect and that would be both surviving and being widely supported.

If dual format players become unbiquitous, then which format is standard will be moot. Until that point, the vying between the camps leads to good offers to entice the consumer.


RE: Different trends
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 5:18:36 PM , Rating: 2
Until they become ubiquitious at a price point the average consumer can afford... If licensing fee's prevent sub $200 dual format players then there's a problem.


RE: Different trends
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 5:20:10 PM , Rating: 2
Let me try that again, with a little spell correction and punctuation.

I think we actually agree.

Having two competing standards is unnecessary; however, now that we do, and considering the investment of various consumers, there are consequences. One side losing will have a detrimental effect. Therefore, the best solution is the one that has the least detrimental effect and the compromise would be both surviving and being widely supported.

If dual format players become ubiquitous, then which format is standard will be moot. Until that point, the vying between the camps leads to good offers to entice the consumer.


RE: Different trends
By TomZ on 9/6/2007 9:50:14 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah, I agree with you on that. Ordinarily I would consider the investment that people made in the "wrong format" a sunk cost, especially within the hardware manufacturers, but you're right, it is helpful to consider the collective investment made by the consumer.

Because of this, it is absolutely imperative that Sony fix their strategy and bring some low-cost BD players into the market ASAP! The holiday season is going to see a flood of low-cost HD-DVD players at retailers like Wal-Mart, and unless Sony takes action to counter this, 2008 is going to to be the year the blue disks get a case of the blues.


PS3 impact
By Chernobyl68 on 9/6/2007 12:11:47 PM , Rating: 3
I wonder how many of those spikes in the BD graph are due to a particular movie in release, or giveaways with some players...




RE: PS3 impact
By Lonyo on 9/6/2007 12:14:45 PM , Rating: 2
Well I wonder if the BR graph shows sales, or units recieved by customers.
I wouldn't call the 5 free BD films sales when they are freebies, and if they do consider them sales, then the new HD-DVD offer from Toshiba with 5 free films for HD-DVD buyers will soon even that out.


RE: PS3 impact
By Murst on 9/6/07, Rating: 0
RE: PS3 impact
By porkpie on 9/6/2007 12:27:00 PM , Rating: 2
Sony's been including free discs since the PS3 was launched in November of last year.


RE: PS3 impact
By Murst on 9/6/2007 1:07:45 PM , Rating: 2
Where did you get that information? The 5 free movies were promotions started this summer.


RE: PS3 impact
By mdogs444 on 9/6/2007 1:14:32 PM , Rating: 2
I think hes referring to promotions like Talledega Nights being packaged with the inital PS3's at launch.


RE: PS3 impact
By Murst on 9/6/2007 2:59:15 PM , Rating: 2
And how would that be relevant? Toshiba offered the same w/ the Xbox 360 HD DVD addon shortly before the PS3 came out.


RE: PS3 impact
By acer905 on 9/6/2007 12:16:01 PM , Rating: 2
Thats exactly what i was wondering. It might just get a surge when they do something smart and offer a decent incentive to purchasing em. Rather than the normal standard of saying "Its better, buy it. No, we don't care how much it costs, but it anyway"


RE: PS3 impact
By walk2k on 9/6/2007 12:51:22 PM , Rating: 2
It's pretty easy to tell what the problem(s) are:

1. 2 formats, consumer confusion
2. expensive players
3. lack of title selection

2. and 3. may fix themselves over the short term but as until one format or the other caves in this stuff will probably not take off, not nearly like DVD did.


RE: PS3 impact
By hdd839 on 9/6/2007 1:42:30 PM , Rating: 3
It seems clear that people are not truly buying into either one right now. Personally I think everything costs too mch, but it's not the player cost that keeps me away. It's the cost of the movies.


RE: PS3 impact
By Goty on 9/6/2007 1:25:31 PM , Rating: 2
How about the spikes in the HD-DVD line?

Also, free movies shouldn't count for either format in that graph since it's labeled in POS (Point Of Sale) units.


RE: PS3 impact
By OxBow on 9/6/2007 2:16:43 PM , Rating: 2
I find it interesting that the HD-DVD spikes are hitting at the slumps in the BD progression, and in general, vice versa.

While the trend on the BD line is downward to a slightly greater degree than the HD-DVD (they both appear to drop), the sheer size of the BD spikes shows a much higher potential for BD. Given that HD-DVD has been on the market longer, a more level trend is to be expected. Since that trend is lower than the BD trend right now, it still looks good for BD.

I think trying to chart this is a bit of a mistake at this point. 12 data sets is not really enough to predict anything. Even at this time next year a chart like this would still be next to worthless. What is promising is the potential for sales here, which for BD is significantly higher than HD-DVD. When there is a consistently large number of movies available in a format that people want to spend money on, the trend for sales here should increase. Since the potential is higher for BD than HD-DVD, according to this useless chart, the potential for consistent sales once the merchandize is consistently available looks better for BD.


RE: PS3 impact
By DingieM on 9/7/2007 9:49:53 AM , Rating: 2
Useless?

Your post reeks of BD fanboyisme and especially fear.

The turn of the tide for Paramount and others going for HD-DVD exclusivity and/or support for HD-DVD will give another HD sales landscape altogether whether you like it or not.
18 months is the duration of the deal but it can be easily deciding for even BD to lose or HD-DVD and BD even out and stay together.

Deciding factor may be the fact that HD-DVD is region-free.

But, as I've said multiple times, the biggest competitor is internet (illegal downloads, online HD video stores like Xbox Live Marketplace), harddrives and flash.


What if...
By acer905 on 9/6/2007 12:25:55 PM , Rating: 1
I was just thinking... most people who actually care about high def movies are either promoting one side or another, or waiting till the war is over. Or maybe even both. I personally would prefer HD DVD, for a few different reasons (one being dislike of sony products, another is that i am cheap). But what if this war goes the way of, oh say, memory cards. With no real end to the constant battle in sight. Some people are stubborn and will refuse to use one sytem or another...

Not that i see it happening, i still see a victory in HD DVD's future. Again mostly out of sheer dislike of sony. But, its still food for thought.




RE: What if...
By Murst on 9/6/2007 12:35:27 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
most people who actually care about high def movies are either promoting one side or another, or waiting till the war is over


The people who really care about HD movies don't give a damn about who wins the format war. They already have players for both formats.


RE: What if...
By TomZ on 9/6/2007 1:27:34 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
They already have players for both formats.

I doubt that. Given the very small market penetration for hi-def players, what percentage of homes do you think have already purchased players for both formats, as of today?


RE: What if...
By timmiser on 9/6/2007 1:52:02 PM , Rating: 2
Maybe more than you might think.

You could argue that mostly videophiles would own HD players at this stage of the game and because they are videophiles, they are already acustomed to spending lots of money on equipment and would have a very likely chance to own both player formats.


RE: What if...
By Murst on 9/6/2007 2:53:45 PM , Rating: 2
Exactly..

You need to look at the assumption here. We're assuming to be talking about the people who really care about HD movies. If you really care about HD movies, yet do not own an HD player, there appears to be a contradiction here.

Its like saying you realy care about playing Madden but you don't own a gaming console.


RE: What if...
By IGoodwin on 9/6/07, Rating: 0
RE: What if...
By luhar49 on 9/7/2007 12:00:57 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
If that collection becomes obsolite/unusable then that is a hestiation factor.


What makes you think your media will become obsolete/unusable? Even if one format drops you still have your existing player. You might not be able to upgrade to a newer version of the hardware but thats hardly a loss.

Point of being a videophile is that you want to achieve the best quality. You would probably know that there are good quality DVD players available today which cost much more than a HD player. Even the cheapest HD player today would beat the best DVD player available.

So just think, people who had spent money on those expensive DVD players, would they think twice before buying an HD player ? If quality is what you want, you will go HD today. There is no waiting.


RE: What if...
By adiposity on 9/12/2007 7:05:37 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
So just think, people who had spent money on those expensive DVD players, would they think twice before buying an HD player ? If quality is what you want, you will go HD today. There is no waiting.


As someone who bought a 65 inch HDTV in the first generation and a $800 dvd player flagship from Toshiba, I consider myself somewhat of a videophile. Yet, I have not bought a blu-ray or hd dvd player. I do own a PS3, but not for the blu-ray, and I have never bought a blu-ray disc. Quality is what I want, but I see no compelling reason to upgrade now. There simply is not enough choice in the media for the HD formats to entice me. In other words, I'd like high quality, but what I want isn't always available in high quality. When it is available, I might have to stick it in a different player to play it...which annoys me.

The biggest reason, however, is that I am watching HD movies all the time, and was doing so before anyone could ever pick up an HD-dvd or blu-ray player...on cable. Why would I want to go buy a box, go down to the store every time a new movie comes out, when I can press a button and watch a movie without getting off my couch. Not everything is on cable, but not everything is on a HD format either. I hope blu-ray wins, just because I want bigger discs for PCs.


RE: What if...
By Blight AC on 9/6/2007 1:05:25 PM , Rating: 5
Well, that's what I was doing, waiting to see who was the victor. What got me though, was the Amazon.com deal where you get 8 HD-DVD titles for the cost of the Xbox 360 HD-DVD drive. So, right now I can pay less then $200 bucks, get 8 HD titles with the player.. maybe 4 titles are ones that I would actually consider buying anyhow. It's a pretty good deal for me.

I was also hoping for an early HD-DVD win for pretty much the same reasons as you.. although more about wanting to see Sony fail.. they need to relearn humility. Sony's a good company, but their proprietary crap needs to stop, it's bad for the consumer.

I think the main reason for the lackluster HD sales is due to folks keeping their current DVD library. I know when DVD became mainstream I wanted to replace most of my VHS titles (which wasn't much) with DVD's because of the higher quality, durability, option for Widescreen (films not altered to fit 4:3 screens) and ease of use (no need to rewind!) It was definitely an improvement. With HD, it's mainly about improved quality, and upgrading a large library just for an improvement in quality, well, I'll just stick with my DVD's and look for HD options on future purchases.

In fact, overall, I'd say this format war was bad for the Movie Industry as a whole. Since I heard about the upcoming HD formats, I have nearly stopped buying new DVD's, and was waiting to see who the victor was before expanding my library with new titles. For around 2 years now, I'm still waiting, although, I believe I may be in the minority, since people are still happily buying DVD's.

Right now though, it looks like both formats are around to stay, unfortunately, Sony yet again is hard headed about causing dilemma for the consumers. So, I don't feel bad about jumping on the HD-DVD bandwagon, and I think this Holiday season will see an appreciable increase in both HD formats, that may start to gain traction in 2008. However, I think it's going to be new releases that drive sales, and not re-releases of movies people already have on DVD. I think people will see their existing DVD library as good enough when quality is the only reason to upgrade, and maybe, when one of their DVD's becomes unplayable, then they'll upgrade it if the cost difference is nearly negligible.


RE: What if...
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 1:44:25 PM , Rating: 2
As I do have a large DVD collection, I have no intention of replacing any of the movies in it to HD, especially as DVDs can still be played on the latest players.

If, and more likely when, standard DVD is no longer supported, or another 'must have' feature emerges, I doubt I'll change my mind. I would only buy HD movies not in my collection and they would have to be ones I liked. If it was a so-so film, a DVD version would probably do.


RE: What if...
By Mitch101 on 9/6/2007 3:10:56 PM , Rating: 2
Standard DVD's can be played back in HD-DVD players.


RE: What if...
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 3:23:49 PM , Rating: 2
Never said they couldn't. Was making a point that at some point in the future, satandard DVDs will become obsolete. Could be 30 years away, the same that's happening to VHS.

My point was, that obsolecence is what would drive me to replace my current collection, not the presence of the same item being available in HD. I would need another 'must have' reason to make the switch.


RE: What if...
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 3:26:03 PM , Rating: 2
Just to add, my original post stated that becasue HD players can play DVDs, that is another reason not to replace my DVD collection with HD content.


Old graph
By ArneBjarne on 9/6/2007 1:47:02 PM , Rating: 3
Everyone realizes that the graph is old and ends with the week ending 05/13/2007 right?

If you want a more up to date picture the Nielsen VideoScan market share numbers (BD/HD DVD) for the year up to the week ending 08/26/2007 (copied from AVS thread*) are here:

quote:

Day        Week            YTD              SI
01/07     63.3/36.7    63.3/36.7    41.2/58.8
01/14     68.2/31.8    65.7/34.3    43.2/56.8
01/21     67.8/32.2    66.4/33.6    45.1/54.9
01/28     68.8/31.2    67.0/33.0    46.7/53.3
02/04     69.0/31.0    67.4/32.6    48.1/51.9
02/11     69.6/30.4    67.7/32.3    49.3/50.7
02/18     65.0/35.0    67.4/32.6    50.3/49.7
02/25     68.5/31.5    67.4/32.6    51.5/48.5
03/04     65.7/34.3    67.2/32.8    52.2/47.8
03/11     68.7/31.3    67.9/32.1    52.8/47.2
03/18     81.7/18.3    69.2/30.8    54.3/45.7
03/25         n/a          70.4/29.6    55.6/44.4
04/01         n/a          69.9/30.1    56.2/43.8
04/08     62.4/37.6    69.4/30.6    56.4/43.6
04/15       61/39           69/31          57/43
04/22       52/48           68/32          57/43
04/29       71/29           68/32          58/42
05/06       60/40           68/32          57/43
05/13       62/38           68/32          57/43
---------------------graph ends here------------------------
05/20       58/42           67/33          57/43
05/27       69/31           67/33          58/42
06/03       61/39           67/33          59/41
06/10       66/34           67/33          59/41
06/17       64/36           67/33          59/41
06/24       70/30           67/33          59/41
07/01       65/35           67/33          60/40
07/08       66/34           67/33          60/40
07/15       61/39           67/33          60/40
07/22       74/26           67/33          60/40
07/29       66/34           67/33          60/40
08/05       62/38           66/34          60/40
08/12       66/34           66/34          61/39
08/19       71/29           67/33          61/39
08/26       68/32           67/33          61/39

YTD: Year To Date
SI: Since Inception


So, the first week after the graph ended the YTD was 2:1 in favor of BD and it was exactly the same after the week ending 08/26/2007.

*http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=87...




RE: Old graph
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 2:04:27 PM , Rating: 2
Yes, I did notice when the timeline stopped, and realize that more recent figures had not shown a marked shift in the market.

However, I was wondering about the difference between actually sold verses the shipped, which was a distinction made in the article.


RE: Old graph
By ArneBjarne on 9/6/2007 2:07:23 PM , Rating: 2
Nielsen VideoScan is data for actually sold.


RE: Old graph
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 2:41:26 PM , Rating: 2
OK, you made me do some research :)

The figures are from 'traditional' channel POS figures; however, the reason they are percentages, rather than sales numbers, is becasue the collection method does not cover the whole market. I agree, good for showing trends, but not the same as total sales from all areas by the producer of the good. Which, I think is what is shown by Sony's graph.


RE: Old graph
By ArneBjarne on 9/6/2007 7:07:37 PM , Rating: 2
I don't know what you mean by 'traditional', but while it doesn't cover all retailers (eg. Wal*Mart is currently not included AFAIK) it does cover all types of retailers (http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/456 ):

quote:
Nielsen VideoScan is home entertainment industry's leading source for competitive sales info, tracking point-of-sale data from all channels of video distribution including mass merchants, audio/video retailers, electronics outlets, grocery stores, drug stores, and internet sites.


It is certainly the most complete picture you can get, and while only the percentages are made public (and an indexed title top ten), they do track the actual numbers on each title. We just don't have access to those, because they would obviously have a hard time making any money on subscribtions etc. if all the numbers were already made public for free.

I also suspect that is the reason why the graph is not up to date, because i do think it is based on Nielsen VideoScan numbers. Again because those are the best numbers available.

http://www.videoscan.com/about.html


RE: Old graph
By porkpie on 9/6/2007 2:18:36 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
If you want a more up to date picture the Nielsen VideoScan market share numbers
But those share numbers don't show actual unit sales. They're just relative figures between the two formats. So its impossible to say whether they're showing Blu Ray as trending up or down.


RE: Old graph
By ArneBjarne on 9/6/2007 2:32:42 PM , Rating: 2
Yes, and for some of the points being made in other posts that is enough.

For the others, it is still relevant to know, that the graph does not contain recent data.


POS Sales!
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 12:16:40 PM , Rating: 2
I'm pretty sure POS Sales, on the graph, has a redundancy, unles POS is being used in its other meaning.




RE: POS Sales!
By KristopherKubicki (blog) on 9/6/2007 12:20:10 PM , Rating: 2
It means point of sale -- which is a generic term to describe retail sales.


RE: POS Sales!
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 12:25:23 PM , Rating: 2
I know what POS stands for :)

Where is that humor button!


RE: POS Sales!
By KristopherKubicki (blog) on 9/6/2007 12:48:10 PM , Rating: 2
LOL sorry I just spent an hour arguing with someone about the iPod. I'm a big frazzled.


RE: POS Sales!
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 12:54:11 PM , Rating: 2
No problem. Although there is some irony in getting noticed by the editor for talking about POS. Was hoping for a better impression.

Hope your iPod frazzling moment passes as quickly as an iFad.


RE: POS Sales!
By KristopherKubicki (blog) on 9/6/2007 1:05:09 PM , Rating: 2
I aim to please!


RE: POS Sales!
By vortmax on 9/6/2007 12:25:29 PM , Rating: 1
I thought POS meant "Piece of %$#^"...LOL maybe not.


Proof
By SlipSlideBazoom on 9/6/2007 4:04:39 PM , Rating: 2
In the interest of the safety of the children, I must point out that "inadvertedly" is not a real word. Try "inadvertently" instead. It's friendlier and it smells spring-time fresh.




RE: Proof
By porkpie on 9/6/2007 4:24:57 PM , Rating: 6
Lol, I typed "inadvertedly" into Google to see if you were correct, and not only did it not not flag a spelling error, but the #1 hit led right back to this story.


RE: Proof
By KristopherKubicki (blog) on 9/6/2007 5:40:25 PM , Rating: 3
:)


RE: Proof
By joeld on 9/11/2007 9:04:22 PM , Rating: 2
Awesome!


Compared to DVD sales?
By pnyffeler on 9/6/2007 12:51:59 PM , Rating: 2
The only way I'd find those numbers to have much meaning is to superimpose them with data showing DVD sales. Perhaps the dip is caused by early adopters giving up paying extra money for movies they can get much cheaper on DVD. The big question is whether movie sales of DVD's went up or down, and whether this fits any previous trends.

Besides, aside from the readers of this site, I bet most people can't tell the difference between the picture quality of a DVD and an HD-DVD or Blu-Ray without somebody like us telling them what to look for.




RE: Compared to DVD sales?
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 2:06:55 PM , Rating: 2
I can deffonetly tell the difference on my Toshiba HD-TV, and it only supports 720P... There is a huge difference between 720P content from x-box video market place and HD Cable compared to my upscaled to 720P dvd collection.


RE: Compared to DVD sales?
By SirLucius on 9/6/2007 2:20:23 PM , Rating: 2
I don't think most people can tell if they just walk into a store and see HD video. But if you do a side by side comparison, or watch something in standard def or upscaled HD like Locusts said, I've found most can see the quality difference. It's similar to how most people can't tell the differnce between a 128kbps mp3 and a higher bitrate mp3 (even 256 or 320 kbps) individually. But if you play one then the other through a decent speaker setup many will notice.


RE: Compared to DVD sales?
By SirLucius on 9/6/2007 2:21:31 PM , Rating: 2
* I mean watch something in standard def or upscaled HD and then watch true HD content.


RE: Compared to DVD sales?
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 2:34:23 PM , Rating: 2
In addition, I've noticed that at least with my RCA upscaler, some DVD's will upscale better than others... Kingdom of heaven for instance is terrific, can barely tell any difference at all, blood diamond is the opposite, it doesn't upscale very well. The star wars prequels are so-so, it all depends... With HD-DVD (or BlueRay) you have consistency.


RE: Compared to DVD sales?
By Hoser McMoose on 9/6/2007 5:45:21 PM , Rating: 2
I think it would be interesting and in fact hugely funny to see DVD sales super-imposed against this. With each getting something like 30-50K/week sales, compared to total DVD sales they would both be essentially at zero on any graph.

Just for comparison, here's a site listing the top DVD sales for the week:

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/weekly/thisw...

The #1 DVD for the week ending Aug. 26th was Wild Hogs, at 737,956 units for the week. That single title alone exceeded the total combined sales of all Blu-Ray and HD-DVD titles by an order of magnitude. I couldn't find any numbers but I suspect that total VHS sales are completely dwarfing Blu-Ray and HD-DVD sales as well.

On the upside both Blu-Ray an HD-DVD *MIGHT* have passed Betamax sales! :)


Both Dropping!
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 12:07:54 PM , Rating: 2
I'm not sure how you see a trend of both formats dropping. Thegraph, to me, shows an intial drop, with BD on a slight decline after and HD on a slight increase.

My eyes bust be playing tricks.




RE: Both Dropping!
By CU on 9/6/2007 12:17:13 PM , Rating: 2
I see the same thing. I think this graphs makes HD look better than BD.


RE: Both Dropping!
By Murst on 9/6/2007 12:28:56 PM , Rating: 2
Yep... I think masher is looking too closely at montly numbers.

The trend does seem to be declining BR numbers, while HD DVD seems to be fairly stable.

In any case, the sales figures are bad for both, as you would expect sales to be increasing.


RE: Both Dropping!
By masher2 (blog) on 9/6/2007 12:40:37 PM , Rating: 1
I was trying to be as objective as possible in describing the graphs. But yes, you're right. If one discounts the Dec-Jan slump period, then HD-DVD sales are stable, if not trending upward.


RE: Both Dropping!
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 12:51:34 PM , Rating: 2
Wasn't trying to doubt your objectivity and I'm certain that if your headline read HD-DVD sales increasing DB in decline, you'd get some serious flack.

I like your reporting and the lively debate that usually follows, even if I don't always agree.


BR down HD up?
By Oregonian2 on 9/6/2007 12:59:32 PM , Rating: 2
Seems that if one discounts the initial last year post-Christmas drop, HD has been mildly drifting up most of the year (if you imagine a trend line that ignores the initial drops on both lines) while the BR, although higher on the chart, has a net drift downward in the same region (right 80% of the chart).




RE: BR down HD up?
By TP715 on 9/6/2007 1:12:14 PM , Rating: 2
I copied the JPEG, deskewed it, digitized the plots, and did simple linear regression on the data past the first decline (ie ignoring the first two tics on the x-axis). BlueRay declined 19%, HD-DVD increased 40%. However, over the period between the first decline and the end of the plot, BR out sold HD-DVD by a factor of 2.3. HD-DVD's rise is not as obvious because of the scale of the plot required because BR far outsells HD-DVD (according to this Sony data).

And yes, I do have too much time on my hands.


RE: BR down HD up?
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 1:37:03 PM , Rating: 2
If I had to guess, and as I don't have any actual facts to back me up, I'll have to. What is being revealed is the initial impact, and aftershock, of the PS3 having BD capability.

Over time the PS3 impact on BD sales is bound to decline, in favor of stand alone players, and the underlying trend is starting to emerge. This has nothing to do with how good, or bad, the PS3 happens to be, just that its effect on the HD market maybe being balanced out.


RE: BR down HD up?
By Locutus465 on 9/6/2007 1:44:27 PM , Rating: 2
Thank god, that's an interesting interpetation of the data. Clearly something Sony is blind to, or at the very least unwilling to admit. I'm still of the belief that Sony is doomed... Customers might buy a premium movie player (think 4 head hifi VHS), but they're not going to buy into a movie format that inherently demands a premium (Beta, BlueRay...)


Wow...
By severtki on 9/6/2007 1:34:49 PM , Rating: 2
Nice, people. You've done some incredible statistical analysis on this thread... ("If I squint this way, it LOOKs like BR is going to kick the pants off of HD-DVD...")

Sorry folks, this graph is completely meaningless without more context, which DT does not provide us. (and WHY are their lines nicely curved? Their "data" would have come from discreet data points. Are these moving averages? No info from the graph on that.)

I'm not statistician, but it's clear there aren't any among the rest of you, either...




RE: Wow...
By porkpie on 9/6/07, Rating: 0
RE: Wow...
By IGoodwin on 9/6/2007 1:57:42 PM , Rating: 2
I think most people place statistics somewhere bellow lies, where truth is highest.

However, graphs do show trends, and this does appear to be fairly clear. BD has sold more than HD, which we all know. As this is Sony's presentation, not HD, the positive trend for HD and negative trend for BD carries more weight.

There should be no issue with a discussion for any point of view, except when a person decides to say, "no matter what you say, I'm not changing my position", becasue then the discussion becomes emotional. The intransigent will continue until no-one will respond, which they claim as vindication.

As a matter of fact I have a degee in mathematics, so I know more than a little about statistics. Even if I can't spell everything correctly.


RE: Wow...
By timmiser on 9/6/2007 2:01:33 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
WHY are their lines nicely curved?

Actually its called a smooth line graph. (You'll learn about this when you get to high school!) It's a popular format for graphs that are designed to be easier to spot trends than the point line graph you are referring to.


RE: Wow...
By aeroengineer1 on 9/13/2007 2:19:28 PM , Rating: 2
And when you get to college and get into a field like engineering, you will be told to go back and change your graphs because they are showing data that are not present. Unless you have all the data points connecting the smooth lines, it is useless information in between the data points and will show inaccurate trends and false information. Why I am not a mathematician, but in engineering we use math to look at the slope of the line as a rate of change. This, for those that are interested, is called a derivative. The rates of change with the spline or polynomial fit, as it is called in other worlds outside of high school, are completely skewed and typically is used to predict something slightly outside of a data set. Unfortunately the use of the spline or polynomial fit was done improperly because the order of the fit was done to one higher than the number of data points and hence it will fit though all data points essentially giving you a very pretty graph that limited interpretive information can be made from it.


movie cost
By dl429 on 9/6/2007 2:25:50 PM , Rating: 2
The biggest problem is the cost of the movies not the players. While I agree mass market adoption of either HD format will not occur until $200 players are the norm, the decline in sales of movies has nothing to do with that. There are more BR and HDDVD players in homes now than at the time represented in the beginning of the graph, thus potentially more customers. The problem is most people will not pay $35 for just any movie. Most early adopters purchased the few available action movies they deemed worthy of the extra cost but will not pay a premium (2x or 3x as much) for others. HD movies need to have a price cap of $20.




RE: movie cost
By Truxy on 9/6/2007 3:05:31 PM , Rating: 2
Only when HD-DVD/BR movie pirating is widely popular will they lower the price, because then they'll have something out of their hands to blame the lack of sales on.


RE: movie cost
By RubberJohnny on 9/7/2007 12:49:20 AM , Rating: 2
You obviously haven't been to Piratebay lately.
HD-DVD/BR pirating looks pretty popular there...


This chart weeks or months? I assume weeks?
By Mitch101 on 9/6/2007 3:09:16 PM , Rating: 2
From what I see it looks like HD-DVD sales in the last couple of points are slowly moving upward.

Wish we could overlay the following, Declining PS3 Unit Sales, Specific Movie Releases like 300, Standalone HD-DVD unit sales, Total Blue Ray and HD-DVD player units.

Im betting that HD-DVD sales and Blue Ray movie sales are directly in proportion to the hardware out there. Say that for every 5 PS3's that were sold 2 HD-DVD units in early 2007. Each buys 1-2 movies a month. The variations are going to be the exclusive titles released for one platform over the other. Since everyone would just about buy 300 and a 5/2 split then it would make perfect sense that the blue ray sales would appear to be much higher when they are actually directly in proportion to the existing hardware in consumers hands. Since the HD-DVD player has dropped in price to approx $200. I would imagine the units sales are slowly evening up to PS3 sales.

My Predicition. HD-DVD will begin to overtake blue ray sales around X-mas because of the players $200 pricetag as more HD-DVD players are sold. As I dont see many people buying Blue-Ray players because of the $500+ buy in on either the PS3 or Set top blue ray player. After X-mas with the boost of HD-DVD sales these charts will start to reverse. As well as Toshiba stating they will ship every laptop with an HD-DVD drive at no cost in 2008 and two major movie companies moving to HD-DVD from Blue Ray.

2007 Was Blue Ray but 2008 will be the year HD-DVD Strikes Back.




By TomZ on 9/6/2007 9:52:21 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
2007 Was Blue Ray but 2008 will be the year HD-DVD Strikes Back.

The more I think about your post - the reasoning and the conclusions - the more I think you are right. It seems like there could be a lot of low-cost HD-DVD players sold this holiday season, which will drive content sales throughout 2008.


HD looks pretty steady as of late
By jak3676 on 9/6/2007 12:06:25 PM , Rating: 2
While both lines show overall decline from the post Christmas rush, it looks like HD has been faily steady since then - only BD seems to be in a steady drop.

Now what does that mean - probably nothting!

BD seems to consistantly outsell HD, but HD is still growing its user base as well. This is a non-winable battle for either side or consumers at this point. Until everyone can agree on a single format or dual-mode players/discs then a majority of consumers will continue to stay on the sidelines. VHS still outsells both formats combined by a large margin.

I'll keep waiting.




Growing Consumer Awareness
By SirLucius on 9/6/2007 12:16:47 PM , Rating: 2
I think part of the decline may be from consumers taking more time to find the product that fits their needs at the right price, and being more aware of the things they buy. With DVD, there was really only one choice. But now consumers have to pick between two formats that most people can't distinguish between. And while Blu Ray appears superior (general thought is that a higher price = a better product), people are finding that there really is no big difference. I was walking around Best Buy looking at HDTV's with my dad (he's looking to pick up a new ~60" TV) and he was geniunely trying to understand the differences between HD-DVD and Blu Ray.

I don't think the cost of HDTV's are a probelm. At this point I think most people are looking to go HD for their next big TV set. What's important is for there to be one format at a low cost. While choice is good, your average Joe is very simple minded when it comes to electronics. Until one format can really distinguish itself as the format of choice, I think that sales will continue to follow this trend.




Graph numbers
By v1001 on 9/6/2007 12:17:24 PM , Rating: 2
Even though both are lower now, looking at that graph it looks like HD-DVD gained about 10,000 closer to Blu-ray. Where it was about 20,000 apart originally it is now only 10,000 apart. So Blu-ray lost ground to HD-DVD. Thats not that much of a gap left. And with Paramount/dreamworks gone from Blu-ray I can see HD-DVD closing the gap and moving ahead very soon now.

I can see how most people would just look at that graph and just see a line higher and think "thats great!". But really looking at it this is definitely a blunder and is not in favor for their own product.




War Is Bad Mkay
By Truxy on 9/6/2007 12:31:00 PM , Rating: 2
The HD DVD war is only working against both sides. The average person who just bought their first HDTV doesn't know about the different formats. There's tons of people who still consider DVD's 'new' technology... while it seems laughable, lots of people who I know are in this category. When the salespeople try to sell a player to him/her, what do they have to work with?

Q: Will it play any new movies?
A: "No... you'd need both players for that."
Q: How much would both cost?
A: "About $800."
Q: Will my existing DVD player still work with this TV?
A: "Yes."
Great, thanks for your help, goodbye.

No sale for either format.




Not willing...
By vortmax on 9/6/2007 12:39:19 PM , Rating: 2
As a lot of people have been stating, most people are just not willing to invest in an HD player, period. The price premium for the HD content is just not worth it to consumers yet. It's all about the price, once that falls, then it'll take off...which is why, I believe HD DVD sales will soon surpass BD.




Yes all of the above, sorta.
By mindless1 on 9/6/2007 1:48:56 PM , Rating: 2
The missing factor is, why spend all this money on an larger better TV so I don't have to sit so close to even see the difference on many flicks, when I don't even watch much TV and like my current TV in general.

Why pay a lot for an HD player when by merely waiting another year or two, they'll be coming from China for 1/4th the current prices? If I were addicted to movies, maybe it would make more sense.

Without feeling it worthwhile to upgrade the TV, nor pay a lot for the player, certainly the higher cost of HD content is also a detraction. Few movie choices is also a major detraction, the fewer movies you watch the more you tend to be selective in what you do (want to) watch.

I'm one of those in the "convert when it breaks" crowd. When my current TV breaks, I'll upgrade it. When my current 2 DVD/MPEG4 players break, at least one will probably be upgraded to an HD player. This is actually optimistic, as I'm quite mechanically and electronically inclined so they might be repaired instead of replaced, sometimes it's not failure that prompts replacement but I'm just tired of looking at it and want a change, but not within the first few years of ownership. This is keeping in mind that I don't watch many movies, so even a midrange DVD player ends up lasting a long time.

I don't even see buying into HD disc technology much in the future, I feel eventually the preferred HD delivery will be via our cable company and watch on demand. I'm not so possessive that I need to "own" a disc that I wouldn't watch many times with rare exceptions.




comes down to content
By soulbabel on 9/6/2007 4:17:32 PM , Rating: 2
I bought a whole lot of Blu-ray movies 2 or 3 months ago, because movies that I wanted to own came out. But lately, the new releases were movies I would rent at most. So I'm still all for Blu-ray movies, just not the ones that have been coming out. I doubt this chart reflects owners of HD devices saying, "hmm, I think I'll save $5 and buy the DVD version of this movie instead of the high def format."




My thoughts...
By mickyb on 9/6/2007 8:32:53 PM , Rating: 2
Variable costs rule, but everything is getting more expensive and if it is a matter of saving $5, then it is worth it. I would rather have a HD format for just the next five years (when the one I picked loses and closes shop) than to have a DVD format.

If you are willing to buy a HD TV and you are a DVD purchaser, then you are willing to buy into the HD format.

If you are gamer, then you probably are allied with the format that the game machine supports.

I wonder how much of this data include BD Games for the PS3 and not just movies?

How anyone can draw a conclusion from this JPEG image is beyond me. Even the angle of the camera shows that the top of the border is not straight. Everything should look like it is trending up.

Comparing HD CATV to any media delivered format is risky. The compression on the images is horrid. My regular upscaled DVDs look better than most HD CATV channels. There is that one HD nature channel that is an exception. They must use that as a demo station.

Personally, I want BD to win. It has nothing to do with Sony or movie content. I just want the bigger size for my computer backups. If we can commoditize BD, then I can back up my terabyte of data a little easier.




I can name three things.
By greyfade on 9/6/2007 8:43:22 PM , Rating: 2
1. Price. Players are still too expensive, you still need expensive cables and an expensive new TV, and movie discs are still much more expensive than DVDs.

2. DRM. Hands down, the biggest problem is making everything work together. It's stupid, it's a pain, and it turns a lot of people off when it doesn't just work like their old DVD player, VCR/Beta, Cable TV hookup, and antenna. Add to that the fact that you cannot (as of yet) preserve your new digital media, and it becomes even less attractive. I think people are starting to realize that all of this is anti-consumer *by design*.

3. Unfair non-competition. What I mean is, movies are being released often on just one of the two formats. Consumers who have chosen a player are finding out that they must buy *ANOTHER* player to see the movie they have bought (or will buy). I know some of the movies I want to see (LoTR, for example) are being slated for an HD-DVD-only release, leaving my poor PS3 out in the cold with nothing but 300 to watch. This is anti-competitive, and it hampers consumer choice. The war cannot be fought on two fronts against two different enemies; the format war must be fought directly, on one unified front for there to be any resolution: ALL MOVIES SHOULD BE RELEASED ON BOTH FORMATS FOR EITHER OF THEM TO MATTER.




By Shawn on 9/7/2007 2:39:29 AM , Rating: 2
I am surprised at how civil everyone here is being! That being said, I think things are looking good for HD DVD. This holiday season we'll have a better idea how things might turn out but my guess is that both formats are here to stay. We won't be getting any kind of mass adoption until dual format players are reasonably priced.




It's war!
By encryptkeeper on 9/7/2007 11:24:32 AM , Rating: 2
A new format being adopted is supposed to see sales rising, not dropping.

Well, considering the fact that the as this battle between BR and HD DVD goes on, it looks more and more like theres no end in sight. Many people are being smart and taking the wait and see approach. This just means they'll have to wait even MORE.




“And I don't know why [Apple is] acting like it’s superior. I don't even get it. What are they trying to say?” -- Bill Gates on the Mac ads











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