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NASA scientists have developed a new model that is among the first to simulate the strength of updrafts in storms. This model was applied to a global warming scenario to give a possible peek at what future weather might look like

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies is a leading research center, located in New York, which studies Earth's past, present and future climates.

The Institute has recently announced a new study which discusses what future storms might look like in a global warming scenario.

NASA's scientists at the Institute developed a new climate model for the study.  The model is among the first to successfully simulate the strength of updrafts in storms.  This allows the model to give a more complete picture of the strength of storms that are occurring around the world, and those that may someday occur.

The model is the first to successfully simulate the observed difference between land and sea storms.  It also is the first model to simulate how the strength of storms may change in a warming environment.

The model is run over regions several hundred miles wide.  It does not directly simulate thunderstorms and lightning, but instead identifies conditions conducive to producing storms of varying strengths.

The model was applied to a future scenario in which the temperature had risen 5 degrees and CO2 levels in the air had doubled.  This simulation found that the land would be warmed more than the sea, and that thunderstorms on land would be produced at higher altitudes than they are today, leading to higher intensity.

The model predicts that some regions will have less humid climates, which would indicate fewer thunderstorms.  However, Anthony Del Genio, Ph.D., lead author illustrates why this scenario may be more dangerous, particularly to western wildfire-prone states:
"These findings may seem to imply that fewer storms in the future will be good news for disastrous western U.S. wildfires, but drier conditions near the ground combined with higher lightning flash rates per storm may end up intensifying wildfire damage instead"
Central and Eastern U.S. are particularly prone to severe thunderstorms.  These storms arise when strong updrafts combine with horizontal winds to produce thunderstorms and deadly tornados.  The study indicates that this most extreme class of storms will become increasingly common, in these areas, with warming.

These increases in storm severity are due to two factors.  First, the land warms more than the sea, respectively.  Second the freezing level, will raise to a higher altitude, where stronger updrafts are present.  These factors are both common to all climate change simulations, but this is the first simulation to explore their effects on storm intensity.

A movie of cloud cover in 2000 generated from data from the GOES-11 satellite, which was used to verify the model, is posted on NASA's website.


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By JasonMick (blog) on 9/2/2007 12:46:17 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
These models provide a close enough approximation to reality in order to meet the requirements


That was my point, precisely. I also was acknowledging that these models cannot predict some behaviors.

For example solid state electronics concepts such as tunneling and channel creation are only well modelled on a atomic basis. Large scale models would fail to anticipate these quantum effects.

My point is that it would give you more data if you could do a fine grain model on everything, such as your electrical example, but it would be too computationally intensive for today's computers.

Fortunately coarse-grain models such as electrical circuits modeling provide a good enough system to provide general necessary information about behavior, as you and I both stated.

We are both in agreement on this point, I was simply providing additional information on the short-comings of coarse grain models, which I believe the poster was referring to.


By TomZ on 9/2/2007 12:52:52 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
It is sorta scary that modeling, which everything from airplanes to weather reports rely upon for information is similarly coarse grained.

OK, then we both agree that these types of models are not really "scary." I realize you already backpedaled from that statement in the sentence that followed, but it still kind of sounded like FUD to me, especially when you brought up safety-critical systems like aircraft design.


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