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NASA scientists have developed a new model that is among the first to simulate the strength of updrafts in storms. This model was applied to a global warming scenario to give a possible peek at what future weather might look like

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies is a leading research center, located in New York, which studies Earth's past, present and future climates.

The Institute has recently announced a new study which discusses what future storms might look like in a global warming scenario.

NASA's scientists at the Institute developed a new climate model for the study.  The model is among the first to successfully simulate the strength of updrafts in storms.  This allows the model to give a more complete picture of the strength of storms that are occurring around the world, and those that may someday occur.

The model is the first to successfully simulate the observed difference between land and sea storms.  It also is the first model to simulate how the strength of storms may change in a warming environment.

The model is run over regions several hundred miles wide.  It does not directly simulate thunderstorms and lightning, but instead identifies conditions conducive to producing storms of varying strengths.

The model was applied to a future scenario in which the temperature had risen 5 degrees and CO2 levels in the air had doubled.  This simulation found that the land would be warmed more than the sea, and that thunderstorms on land would be produced at higher altitudes than they are today, leading to higher intensity.

The model predicts that some regions will have less humid climates, which would indicate fewer thunderstorms.  However, Anthony Del Genio, Ph.D., lead author illustrates why this scenario may be more dangerous, particularly to western wildfire-prone states:
"These findings may seem to imply that fewer storms in the future will be good news for disastrous western U.S. wildfires, but drier conditions near the ground combined with higher lightning flash rates per storm may end up intensifying wildfire damage instead"
Central and Eastern U.S. are particularly prone to severe thunderstorms.  These storms arise when strong updrafts combine with horizontal winds to produce thunderstorms and deadly tornados.  The study indicates that this most extreme class of storms will become increasingly common, in these areas, with warming.

These increases in storm severity are due to two factors.  First, the land warms more than the sea, respectively.  Second the freezing level, will raise to a higher altitude, where stronger updrafts are present.  These factors are both common to all climate change simulations, but this is the first simulation to explore their effects on storm intensity.

A movie of cloud cover in 2000 generated from data from the GOES-11 satellite, which was used to verify the model, is posted on NASA's website.


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RE: So What Else Are the Simulations Missing?
By Kuroyama on 9/2/2007 12:15:20 PM , Rating: 3
ALL models work by oversimplifying the problem. You then do simulations to see whether the model fits the data. Open any textbook (say economics for instance) and you should have little trouble discovering vast simplifications in the models. Even "common sense" is often wrong, for instance sometimes higher prices of necessities actually lead to higher demand! http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2007/0...

This is true even in hard core sciences. I worked in a quantum physics theory group one summer as an undergrad and basically the way it worked was the professor would propose a simplification of the QM to make things computable, then we would write up software and simulate, then the experimental group would do experiments and see if the simulations fit the experimental results.

So, no, this is not Simcity 1.0.


By masher2 (blog) on 9/2/2007 1:46:25 PM , Rating: 2
> > "ALL models work by oversimplifying the problem. You then do simulations to see whether the model fits the data"

Exactly so. It's a valid-- indeed a critical methodology. The problem is that GCM models have yet to "fit the data". Their abilities to predict future behavior have, so far, been nonexistent. The models are continually revised to bring them into alignment with current history....and when the next batch of data comes out, the models are again off base.


"And boy have we patented it!" -- Steve Jobs, Macworld 2007














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