2007 Hurricane Season: Where's the Beef?
July 31, 2007 1:12 PM
comment(s) - last by
Another milder-than-normal season takes shape
During the active 2005 hurricane season, the usual doom-and-gloom prophets blamed the storms on global warming. "Nature's wrath," we were told, "hath been unleashed". Aided by a complaisant media, we were told this was our wakeup call, come to punish us for our SUV-driving ways.
Then disaster struck. The
not only didn't live up to predictions, it wound up being one of the quietest seasons of the past century. No matter. We were told to ignore this year-long blip, told that 2007 would come roaring back with a vengeance.
And yet, here we are, two full months into the season, and not a single hurricane has formed. Not one. Just two mild tropical storms, one of which didn't even strike land, and a third storm which never went above subtropical status. Hurricane forecasters are
their predictions for the rest of the season.
And so it goes. The sky isn't falling yet. But what about the future? Will global warming wreck all our beach-going vacations?
There are two schools of thought regarding the effects of climate change on hurricane science. The first begins with the fact that hurricanes require warm water to form. Global warming means warmer water, leading to the naive conclusion is that more hurricanes will form. The second school realizes that hurricanes are heat engines -- driven not by raw temperature, but by temperature differentials between regions. Global warming warms the arctic and temperate belts, but not the tropics. This reduces the total energy available for major storm formation. It also increases upper-level wind shear, which tends to tear apart storms before they grow too strong. This school believes the long term effects of global warming will be fewer, milder storms.
Climate change aside, hurricanes come and go in cycles. Professor William Gray, one of the nation's most respected hurricane forecasters, believes storm activity will remain high for the next several years, due
simply to a long-term cycle
of changing Atlantic currents. A team of researchers led by Dr. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center goes further. In a
paper published last year
, they claim storm rates have not risen over the past 100 years, but only that improved monitoring technology results in registering storms which would have previously been missed. And professors Vecchi and Soden's
research on wind shear
suggests no long-term storm activity increase should be expected.
I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm not selling my ocean-front condo just yet.
This article is over a month old, voting and posting comments is disabled
RE: Here's the reference...
8/1/2007 9:52:22 PM
I think you protest too much.
I posted that comment by mistake. I had originally intended to edit it for clarity and ran out of time... hitting the "post comment" button rather than cancel.
The expectation, not obligation, you would include a reference to the Holland study indicates that I have a higher standard for you that that of mainstream reporter. My personal expectations for mainstream reporters is about a 7th grade level ability at math and writing, due to the large number of idiotic stories that routinely get significant press butchering at even the pinnacles of the press (BBC, CNN, NYT, WSJ). Although I do admit this is slightly unfair.
Again, my expectation was formed on;
1. Pretty much every news outlet has carried the story about the Holland Study (although the Study is from a quick reading deeply flawed) starting with CNN International (the first one I read anyway) on 7/29. It does seem slightly disingenuous that you were totally unaware of the study.
2. Again, calling the other people more biased is not really a great reason to be biased
RE: Here's the reference...
8/2/2007 10:29:20 AM
> "The expectation...indicates that I have a higher standard for you that that of mainstream reporter"
While I appreciate the kind words, I have to point out standard journalistic ethics, which requires news reports to be unbiased and objective, but op-ed commentary (a category to which blogs belong) is not. Commentary is
to display a biased opinion. The only journalistic standard is that op-ed pieces be clearly labelled as such, rather than straight news reporting.
Anyone reading the above blog clearly knows my position on the debate. That makes it biased. I proudly stand behind that. However-- in sharp contrast to supposedly "unbiased" mainstream news -- that opinion is not only backed up by scientific fact and hard reasoning, but the dissenting opinion is also reported. I have enough faith in my readers intellects to allow them to choose which side they believe in; I don't need to force them down a path by offering them only a single option.
"I'd be pissed too, but you didn't have to go all Minority Report on his ass!" -- Jon Stewart on police raiding Gizmodo editor Jason Chen's home
Latest By Michael Asher
EU President to Speak at Climate Skeptics Conference
February 18, 2009, 7:53 AM
Chinese Man Killed By Exploding Cell Phone
February 3, 2009, 11:29 AM
UPDATE: Biodiesel Idles Minnesota Schools
January 23, 2009, 3:40 AM
Will the Real Antarctica Please Stand Up?
January 22, 2009, 6:08 AM
Global Warming May Decrease Hurricanes, Research Suggests
January 14, 2009, 10:24 AM
Japanese Report Disputes Human Cause for Global Warming
January 14, 2009, 8:43 AM
Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979
January 1, 2009, 11:31 AM
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the (Climate) Forum
December 30, 2008, 3:06 PM
Climate Report Downgrades Ice Loss; Media Reports Opposite
December 29, 2008, 3:30 AM
Princeton Physicist Calls Global Warming Science "Mistaken"
December 23, 2008, 2:37 PM
NASA Opportunity Rover Breaks Record for Most Miles Traveled on Another Planet
July 29, 2014, 1:38 PM
Commercial Drones to Get Privacy Guidelines Via Executive Order
July 25, 2014, 5:34 PM
Pentagon's Priciest Project, F-35, Misses International Debut
July 25, 2014, 10:18 AM
Temple University Researchers Hit the Delete Button on HIV, Remove it from Human Cells
July 22, 2014, 7:39 AM
Airbus Shows Off All-Electric E-Fan 2.0 Airplane, Plans Production in 2017
July 21, 2014, 9:29 AM
Buzz Aldrin Says First Astronauts to Set Foot on Mars Should Never Return Home
July 9, 2014, 9:46 AM
Most Popular Articles
Facebook Will Force Android, iOS Users to Use Messenger App This Week
July 29, 2014, 11:26 AM
Ford's Extensive Use of Aluminum in '15 F-150 Results in $395 Increase for Base Models
July 28, 2014, 3:02 PM
Sony's Xperia Z3 Gets Detailed in Leaked Photos
July 25, 2014, 2:30 PM
T-Mobile CEO John Legere is on the Warpath Again; Introduces $100, 10GB Family Plan
July 28, 2014, 10:12 AM
UK Drivers Must Now Give Their Cell Phones to Police After a Crash
July 29, 2014, 4:37 PM
Latest Blog Posts
Space Terrorism is a Looming Threat For the United States
Apr 23, 2014, 7:47 PM
Facebook Aims to Provide Internet to "Every Person in the World" with Drones, Satellites
Apr 1, 2014, 10:20 AM
Retail Mobile Sites Experience Outages in Light of Simplexity's Bankruptcy
Mar 14, 2014, 8:48 AM
Tesla vs. BMW: Who Has the Safer EV?
Feb 1, 2014, 2:56 PM
Justice Leaks Details of Next HTC One Two Flagship Phone
Dec 5, 2013, 4:04 PM
More Blog Posts
Copyright 2014 DailyTech LLC. -
Terms, Conditions & Privacy Information