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Print 77 comment(s) - last by theflux.. on May 9 at 10:44 PM

Sales figures make it clear-- it's a draw.

It's time to stop kidding ourselves about the HD format war. There isn't going to be a winner. Not today or ever.  Already picked a side?  Congratulations; it's going to be around forever....whichever one it is.

A surprising conclusion?  Let's look at the possibilities. First, there is the chance neither HD-DVD nor Blu Ray wins; they both go the way of the dodo and UMD movies. Plausible...until one looks at the burgeoning market share of HDTVs. People want content for those shiny new sets, and and those sets continue to sell, demand will rise. There isn't a strong competitor to either format on the horizon. On-demand HD will rear its head one day, but bandwidth issues are going to delay it a decade or more.

The second possibility-- one format wins, one loses. But both have already sold over a million discs each. The odds of either dying before doubling that are zero. That's a lot of discs...discs that are going to be around forever. Their owners are going to want something to play them on. Each user base is already past "critical mass" for major releases-- the point at which a studio can pay back mastering and production costs, and still make a profit on the release. So new movies will continue to arrive.

That brings us to the final option. Both remain. Dual-format players become cheap and ubiquitous.  The average consumer buys an HD movie without caring (or in some cases, knowing) its format. Just as they buy recordable DVDs today. Is there any doubt this is the eventual outcome? It won't be this year of course, and probably not in 2008. But eary 2009-- look out!

I'll close with a surprising fact. According to DVD-Empire sales figures, HD-DVD-- after being beaten badly earlier this year-- has managed to climb back this month to tie Blu-Ray. Admittedly, thats a single retailer...but their weekly sales charts have tracked closely with Nielsen figures throughout all of 2007.



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Tie?
By SleazyC on 5/5/2007 12:19:16 AM , Rating: 3
Err... according to DVD-Empire... how is HDDVD being at 41% compared to BD being at 58% considered a "tie"?

According to Nielsen Videoscan numbers (which I believe DVD-Empire uses) the figures for the week ending in 4/29 were:

Week Ended 4/29: 71% BD, 29% HDDVD
YTD: 68% BD, 32% HDDVD
LTD: 58% BD, 42% HDDVD

http://www.reuters.com/article/industryNews/idUSN0...
^ Reuters article reporting weekly sales.

Aside from the week prior to 4/29 when Planet Earth was released, Bluray has been outselling HD_DVD by a considerable margin (according to Nielsen Videoscan numbers). As of Q1 the numbers look like this:

Total discs sold Q1
BD: 832,530
HD: 359,300

Total discs SI as of end of Q1
BD: 1.2 million
HD: 937,500

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluraysales042007.htm

I agree that the war is far from over but saying that sales are tied is a bit misleading. Hardware sales (not counting the PS3) are a bit more in favor of HD-DVD but software sale is still leaning towards bluray.




RE: Tie?
By ThePh33r on 5/5/07, Rating: -1
RE: Tie?
By novacthall on 5/9/2007 8:34:19 AM , Rating: 2
Communism contributed greatly to society and technology in the 20th century, did it? I must have missed that documentary on the History Channel.

You didn't get voted down for voicing support in communism. You got voted down for not contributing much of anything to the conversation.


RE: Tie?
By masher2 (blog) on 5/5/2007 11:13:43 AM , Rating: 3
> "Err... according to DVD-Empire... how is HDDVD being at 41% compared to BD being at 58% considered a "tie""

The latest monthly sales figures from DVD-Empire have HD-DVD at 54.81%, compared to Blu-Ray at 45.19%. If you look at YTD sales, Blu-Ray leads. Looking at sales from inception (launch-present), its a statistical tie.

Which of the three methodologies is the most valid? It depends on your perspective.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/5/2007 2:26:05 PM , Rating: 2
Week Ended 4/29: 71% BD, 29% HDDVD - Not a statistical tie.
YTD: 68% BD, 32% HDDVD - Not a statistical tie.
LTD: 58% BD, 42% HDDVD - I still wouldn't call this a statistical tie, especially given the trend of increasing BD Since Inception numbers.

There is no perspective about it.

DVD Empire is a very small retailer who provides interesting data, but is a drop in the HD format bucket. Even Amazon is just a drop compared to brick-and-mortar retailers. Last week Night at the Museum outsold Planet Earth BD and Planet Earth HD DVD combined. However, if you looked at Amazon during that period or even right now you would think that Planet Earth was a sales juggernaut.

Finally, HD DVD has not sold over a million disks. I know it is just your blog, but I would appreciate you either citing your million sold source or correcting the information. The previous claims that HD DVD was "within 2000" of Blu-ray's 1 million was proven to be an outright lie. Shouldn't it bother you that the only references that google can find to a "Webersh and Wick" (the source of the claim) are the articles that mention them as the source? There are about 6 pages of Google returns now, but when the story was first released there were only 3 hits. You would think a "promotions group" would have a bit more information about them.

See for yourself.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&client...


RE: Tie?
By grenableu on 5/5/2007 2:50:58 PM , Rating: 2
I just went to dvdempire.com myself and the figures for May sales show HD-DVD leading NOT Blu Ray. And yes, its a small retailer, but there's no reason to believe their figures deviate from national averages. Thats the whole basis of statistical polling....you query a few thousand people about how they voted, and your results will be very close to how the whole country did.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/5/2007 7:51:59 PM , Rating: 2
Except that they don't mirror the "national averages" Those averages are the Nielsen data which I quoted. DVD Empire is deviating significantly, and are therefore not a good indicator because Nielsen's sample size is magnitudes greater.


RE: Tie?
By masher2 (blog) on 5/6/2007 12:06:55 AM , Rating: 2
I've followed their figures for several months, and they've tracked nearly identically with the Nielsen Videoscan numbers for the entire period. Look back at their historical data, and you'll find it agrees with Nielsen's published figures. When Nielsen showed BD outselling HD-DVD nearly 3-1, their percentages matched to two significant digits.

In short, when Nielsen finally releases sales figures for early May, I'm confident it'll mirror the DVD Empire data.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/6/07, Rating: 0
RE: Tie?
By masher2 (blog) on 5/6/2007 6:24:46 PM , Rating: 3
Better than that-- if a year goes by, and my predictions have turned out false, I'll eat crow and post a lengthy reversal.

But I don't expect this to happen. I'm cautious by nature; my predictions above are a pretty safe bet.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/9/2007 12:39:50 PM , Rating: 2
You may want to check back with DVD Empire. They just updated their data again and there is no tie.

41.58 HD DVD
58.42 Blu-ray


RE: Tie?
By Pythias on 5/9/2007 2:21:13 PM , Rating: 2
Is a 17% margin enough for media companies to write off hd-dvd? I sure as hell wouldn't write off 41% of the market.

No clear winner = tie.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/9/2007 4:45:52 PM , Rating: 2
No its absolutely not enough reason for media companies to write off HD DVD. And "No clear winner" does equal a tie, but the DVD Empire numbers are not a tie. 17% margin is a long ways away from a tie. 51-49, or maybe even 53-47 could be massaged into "tie" territory, but not a full 16+ point difference.


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/9/07, Rating: 0
RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/9/2007 10:42:52 PM , Rating: 2
In the main post he says they are a tie. I respond saying they are not a tie. Talk about complete lack of reading comprehension.


RE: Tie?
By masher2 (blog) on 5/5/2007 3:10:18 PM , Rating: 2
The original source:
quote:
[Apr 25] HD-DVD's representatives from Webersh & Wick public relations wrote to IGN Gear directly with updated HD-DVD news. According to their figures, HD-DVD movie sales lag only 2,000 units behind Blu-ray with 998,059 units sold. The firm points out that pre-orders of Planet Earth and The Matrix Trilogy will propel HD-DVD over the million-mark quite shortly. Representatives also stated that hardware sales have continued with strength in April, maintaining a 4 to 1 margin over Blu-ray...
Webersh and Wick are clearly identified as the PR firm of the HD-DVD forum; an announcement from them is equivalent to a BD press release from Sony.

Your statement might have merit if HD-DVD was attempting to pass off W&W as an independent auditing firm, but they were not. There certainly is no evidence to call the pronouncement "a lie", and they're most certainly plausible, as the Nielsen Videoscan sales figures for Jan-March have HD-DVD averaging nearly 130K discs/month. Given HD-DVD has now been out a full year, total sales in the ~1M range are certainly plausible.

Again, if you have further evidence these figures are incorrected or intentionally distorted, please post it. But I've seen nothing to indicate anything of the sort.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/5/2007 7:55:34 PM , Rating: 1
For them being an HD DVD promotion group, they sure are quiet. In fact in all my research it seems the only thing they have EVER done is email IGN. Not an official press release, no official website, nothing. And yet suddenly their word is as good as Nielsen in your eyes?


RE: Tie?
By masher2 (blog) on 5/6/2007 12:13:28 AM , Rating: 2
I notice you didn't support your claim that the HD-DVD million-disc sales figure was "a lie", so I assume you're retracting it.

To answer your question, data which has been independently audited is of course more indisputable than that which have not. But the fact remains these figures have been given, they are certainly plausible, and no one, not even Sony itself, has challenged them, so in the absence of evidence to the contrary, they stand.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/6/2007 4:22:18 PM , Rating: 2
I figured the PR Firm having absolutely no presence except for an email sent to IGN would be support enough that their claims were suspect. However, since they are basically mentioned nowhere except for that single iota of contact with IGN, it is hard to track down much of anything about them.

You will notice that the figure they released includes "sales" which at the time had not happened yet. Blu-ray sold 1 million disks which were in the hands of consumers. HD DVD sold 1 million disks if you count disks that haven't been released yet. I wonder how many disks Blu-ray has sold if you add in all of its pre-orders?


RE: Tie?
By masher2 (blog) on 5/6/2007 6:21:41 PM , Rating: 3
> "You will notice that the figure they released includes "sales" which at the time had not happened yet"

I've seen no evidence to support such a claim. W&W noted that heavy preorders would soon push them over the million-disc mark...but they didn't include those in the 998K sales figure.

Again, if you have evidence to the contrary, post it. Otherwise its just puff and rumors.

> "I figured the PR Firm having absolutely no presence except for an email sent to IGN would be support enough that their claims were suspect"

Poor logic. If they were claiming independent status, then you would indeed have a point...but as they're simply acting as mouthpiece for the HD-DVD forum, their own stature is irrelevant.


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/6/2007 12:23:25 AM , Rating: 1
So, how long have you owned your PS3?


RE: Tie?
By AlexWade on 5/6/2007 8:21:47 AM , Rating: 1
HD DVD fell way behind because they had virtually 0 new releases until recently. Now that HD DVD has new releases, they are making up ground rather quickly. Mostly because some Blu-Ray studios, like Fox and Disney, are holding back for BD+, which I promise you will be broken in less than 6 months after it comes out. Their holding out for BD+ is hurting Blu-Ray.

HD DVD will get cheap players first. Which is why either HD DVD will win or neither will. Although the cheap Wal-Mart HD DVD players may or may not be true, you know the HD DVD promoters will try their best to get sub $200 players to market by Christmas, which will really tip the scales of this war.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/6/2007 4:26:39 PM , Rating: 2
Well to be more correct they aren't making up ground, they are just losing ground at a slower pace. They've still been outsold by Blu-ray every week since February. The ratio they were being outsold by had, until recently, been increasing in their favor though. So if you say they are "making up ground" in relation to the sales ratio that was a true statement until this week.

I agree with you about Disney and Fox hurting Blu-ray while they wait for BD+. I doubt it will even take 6 months to break BD+.


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/7/2007 8:57:17 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
They've still been outsold by Blu-ray every week since February
Not in the last week. To come back from being outsold 3:1 and start outselling Blu Ray is a real feat.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/7/2007 12:36:04 PM , Rating: 2
Blu-ray outsold HD DVD 2.4:1 last week. What data are you looking at?


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/7/2007 1:57:55 PM , Rating: 1
For THIS week, HD-DVD outsold Blu Ray 60% to 40%. For LAST week, Blu-Ray outsold HD-DVD 58% to 41%, which is a long cry from the 2.4 to 1 you quoted. Blu-Ray hasn't done that well since back in March.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/7/2007 2:47:00 PM , Rating: 2
What is your source of the data? DVD Empire? I'm using Nielsen data, the data that covers about 95% of the market. When Sony or Toshiba issue a press release about disks sold do they use DVD Empire data? No. They use Nielsen data. See the stats posted higher in this thread.


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/7/2007 3:22:25 PM , Rating: 1
Your figures are old. There is no Nielsen data for this week or last week, they don't release their figures right away.

BTW, you keep challenging everyone else data, but you've continually failed to backup your original statement that the hd-dvd sales figures were "a lie". Why is that?


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/7/2007 4:25:47 PM , Rating: 2
I've already tried to explain they those figures are so suspect several times. I can only lead you to the water, I can't make you drink.


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/7/2007 10:44:44 PM , Rating: 1
The only "lie" here was your claim that the figures had been "proven" wrong. Admit it-- you made that up to to try make a point. Is it so important to be right?


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/8/2007 12:28:30 PM , Rating: 2
A PR Firm that apparently doesn't exist makes a claim that flies in the face of accepted data. I just don't know what else to say other than I have a statue in New York to sell you.


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/8/2007 4:37:00 PM , Rating: 1
No PR firm made a claim. They simply passed on a claim made by the HD-DVD Forum. And it doesn't "fly in the face" of accepted data, except in the minds of a few deluded Blu Ray supporters, apparently.

Still waitng for the "proof" you claimed to have in your first post. I guess I should stop holding my breath though.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/8/2007 4:59:53 PM , Rating: 2
The PR Firm "Webersh and Wick" most certainly did make the claim. And them saying they are close to selling a million disks does "fly in the face" of Nielsen data. I've already given you the proof many times. It isn't my fault you are a deluded HD DVD supporter. I'm guessing you were on board for the "Walmart HD DVD" players as well?


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/8/2007 6:31:33 PM , Rating: 2
Its amazing how dense some people can be. The HD-DVD Forum made the sales claim. Webersh and Wick, their PR firm, simply announced it for them. Its the original source of the figures that counts. Your logic is like claiming that, because Home Theater magazine prints Nielsen Videoscan data, that they should be considered the source of the data.

Furthermore, the Nielsen figures don't contract the HD-DVD claims, they support them. Nielsen shows them as having sold some 400K discs just in the first quarter of 2007 alone. HD-DVD has been selling discs for over 4 quarters now. Had they sold that many for each quarter, they'd have sold close to TWO million discs by now. Obviously, they were selling fewer in 2006, and thats why they've only sold one million.

Finally, if the figures were "a lie", I'm sure Nielsen and/or Sony would have been all over them. But they haven't. Why not? Because they're accurate.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/8/2007 5:05:58 PM , Rating: 2
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/4838/newmktshxa...

Does that look like it mirrors the DVD Empire data for that week?

I'll be back this Friday to post the next chart.


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/8/2007 6:24:27 PM , Rating: 2
It sure does mirror the DVD Empire data. Nielsen Videoscan has YTD figures of 68% to 32%. DVD Empire has it at 62% to 38%. Pretty close.

For weekly data, its even closer. For 4/24, DVD Empire has 57% to 43%. Now, Nielsen starts their weeks on different days, so lets average their data for the week before and the week after. For 4/22, Neilsen has 52% to 48%. For 4/29, Nielsen has 71% to 29%. A two-week running average is therefore 61% to 39%-- or within four percentage points of the DVD Empire data that falls directly in the middle of this two-week period.

Finally, you STILL have not posted one shred of evidence to back up your claim that the HD-DVD figures were "proven a lie". Are you willing to admit you made it up now, or you want to continue embarrassing yourself?

Oh, and here's MY proof of the figures above. Full Nielsen data, week by week:

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?p=1...


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/8/2007 6:37:05 PM , Rating: 2
I didn't make up the claim, someone made up a PR firm. YOU still haven't proven that "Webersh and Wick" even exists.


RE: Tie?
By masher2 (blog) on 5/8/2007 9:50:16 PM , Rating: 2
> "someone made up a PR firm. YOU still haven't proven that "Webersh and Wick" even exists."

Time to put a stop to this. You have the name wrong...the PR firm employed by the DVD Forum is Weber Shandwick, not "Webersh and Wick". They not only "exist", they're one of the largest PR firms in the world, with 82 offices on six different continents. In 2006, they received the UN Grand Award for excellence in PR, along with the highest rated firm in the Asia-Pacific region by Media Magazine, and PR Firm of the Year, here in the USA.

That reputable enough for you?


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/8/2007 10:16:32 PM , Rating: 2
Actually, yes it is. The IGN article referred to them as "Webersh and Wick"

http://gear.ign.com/articles/783/783545p1.html

Why did you wait until now to mention that the article was incorrect? I don't have a problem with being wrong, but I would appreciate it if you would give your evidence up front.


RE: Tie?
By greenchasch on 5/9/2007 4:56:45 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
They not only "exist", they're one of the largest PR firms in the world, with 82 offices on six different continents...
I'd say a "pwned" is in order right about now.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/9/2007 10:44:39 PM , Rating: 2
Funny, thats what I said about you when you didn't reply to MY chart posted below.


RE: Tie?
By theflux on 5/8/2007 9:30:45 PM , Rating: 2
Nice chart by the way, but I've seen it before.

Here is a much better one:

http://endrop.com/album/photos/yzdmj5nycjdniwjnldz...

That chart only goes to the 15th, but I'll tell you a little secret:

HD DVD didn't sell or get pre-orders for 200,000+ movies in 2 weeks.

Nielsen and the imaginary PR firm of "Webersh and Wick" are at odds. In this case I'll have to side with Nielsen.


RE: Tie?
By Armorize on 5/6/2007 9:12:52 AM , Rating: 2
I predict that at the end of the year (if it even gets to that)
we will see who the winner is. Sony has the advantage as far as PR,advertising and marketing all of their products.

Lets face it their arent many advertisements for HDDVD that ive seen, here and there in newspaper ads and stuff. BluRay ads are everywhere though full spectrem, and with the ps3 it makes it so much sweeter for them.

Ya xbox has hddvd expansion... key word there dont miss it, making it a burdon to buy something extra for it. The second they put an HDDVD drive in an xbox i will say that hddvd is still a competitor in the arena, until then lets start a countdown to the end here.


RE: Tie?
By grenableu on 5/6/2007 10:01:21 AM , Rating: 2
I promise you by the end of this year, both formats will not only still be around, they'll both be selling better than they are today.

Oh, and btw, HD-DVD hasn't even started its advertising campaign yet. They're spending 150 million dollars on it, and it doesn't even start till Christmas.


On-demand is here
By Jigabit55 on 5/4/2007 2:53:45 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
On-demand HD will rear its head one day, but bandwidth issues are going to delay it a decade or more.


I can already get on-demand HD through my cable connection, am I the only one?




RE: On-demand is here
By Aprime on 5/4/2007 2:58:22 PM , Rating: 2
Nope.


RE: On-demand is here
By othercents on 5/7/2007 5:45:16 PM , Rating: 2
I used HD Cable all year, but I am now moving away from HD Cable. For entertainment value I don't see any reason for me to keep it. Granted there are those people who wouldn't watch anything else but HD video. I expect the shows to keep me entertained and not the quality of the video.

However TV manufactures should be decreasing the number of analog TVs they produce and increase the number of HDTVs they produce. This is simply because the FCC is wanting to discontinue the analog broadcasts in 2009.

quote:
TV stations serving all markets in the United States are airing digital television programming today, although most will continue to provide analog programming through February 17, 2009. At that point, full-power TV stations will cease broadcasting on their current analog channels, and the spectrum they use for analog broadcasting will be reclaimed and put to other uses.


Granted people who have analog TVs can still buy a set top box to convert DTV to Analog, but I expect most those people will just try to turn on their TV and find it doesn't work anymore. Then run down to the store and get a HDTV so that they can watch their favorite shows.

Other


RE: On-demand is here
By porkpie on 5/4/2007 3:13:09 PM , Rating: 3
Its available in a few areas, but its gonna be a loooong time before most locations can get it. In my area, they opened it up for a small part of their service area, and even there its crappy super-compressed 720p.


RE: On-demand is here
By therealnickdanger on 5/4/2007 3:26:22 PM , Rating: 2
Me too. While not quite the same pristine bitrate of HD-DVD or BD, it blows away my non-technical friends.


RE: On-demand is here
By darkpaw on 5/4/2007 3:49:05 PM , Rating: 2
Yah, its not perfect, but its nice.

Much love for HBO on demand.


RE: On-demand is here
By Spyvie on 5/4/2007 4:16:29 PM , Rating: 2
I'll add a fifth affirmative...

Comcast HD On Demand works pretty good for me in the Denver area.

Between HD Cable and my upscaling DVD player I'm in no hurry to get a next gen player.

Physical media is obsolete!


RE: On-demand is here
By plonk420 on 5/4/2007 5:33:11 PM , Rating: 3
i refuse to pay $30-40 on basic cable, $15-30 on whatever it takes to upgrade to digital/hd PER MONTH to get something i won't ever be able to hold on to. the few movies (and or TV shows) i like enough to own to watch multiple times probably amounts to less than $60 a month PLUS a Blockbuster Online sub...


RE: On-demand is here
By darkpaw on 5/4/2007 10:20:57 PM , Rating: 2
On demand is just like a freebe, theres plenty of other stuff to make the monthly fee worth it for cable.

I wouldn't pay $5 for a 24 hour ppv movie, but I love the on demand features included with the regular cable subscription.


RE: On-demand is here
By porkpie on 5/4/2007 8:00:39 PM , Rating: 5
quote:
Physical media is obsolete!
except for those people who actually like to own what they buy.


RE: On-demand is here
By mcnabney on 5/5/07, Rating: -1
RE: On-demand is here
By porkpie on 5/5/2007 3:24:23 PM , Rating: 3
A lot better than owning nothing whatsoever. I'll stick with discs, thanks.


RE: On-demand is here
By sxr7171 on 5/5/2007 12:04:38 PM , Rating: 2
If you think the HD you get from cable is good, then yeah you don't need real HD. They even re-compress broadcast HD and lower the quality from what you can get from an antenna.


Disc around forever...???
By CollegeTechGuy on 5/6/2007 11:56:44 AM , Rating: 3
Disc are not going to be around forever. I have many CDs, and a few DVDs that are already de-laminating. For those of you that don't know how a disc is made its simply a piece of metal sandwiched between 2 pieces of plastic. I think discs are a piece of crap that we all need to get away from, because they are not as great as people origionally thought they would be. We need to stop inventing new ways to write to a disc and invest more money in flash memory. Cause it will last a heck of alot longer than a disc.




RE: Disc around forever...???
By grenableu on 5/6/2007 12:03:01 PM , Rating: 2
Flash memory has a data retention lifespan of about 10 years...a lot less if its being constantly written to.

I've got CDs that are already almost 25 years old, and still in as good shape as they were when bought. I'm sure they're good for another 25 years easy.


RE: Disc around forever...???
By mindless1 on 5/7/2007 8:00:35 PM , Rating: 2
CDs that were stamped, not written by a low cost PC burner, and at a much lower bit density. I have plenty of CDRs that are under 5 years old that aren't readable anymore or have at least a few errors now, and no they weren't stored in a bad environment.

If you're talking about audio CDs, you don't actually know if they have any data errors now if you didn't previously and now again, check CRC on it all. Playing back an audio file if a bit is flipped, you aren't going to know. Quite different possible outcome with data.


RE: Disc around forever...???
By mindless1 on 5/7/2007 8:02:27 PM , Rating: 2
Yes I'm aware of error correction but past a certain point it can't - it's not like a mere one bit would tend to go bad but not any others when whole disc is same media and in same environment.


RE: Disc around forever...???
By greenchasch on 5/7/2007 10:47:11 PM , Rating: 2
Why the hell are you talking about burned CDs? So they don't last that long. We're talking about movies sold by the studios. Those ARE stamped discs. And they last a hell of a lot longer than data on flash will.


RE: Disc around forever...???
By OxBow on 5/7/2007 11:28:25 AM , Rating: 2
The archivist at our office has a data migration plan for our media that accomodates updating to a new format every 7-10 years. This is to cover two issues.

One is that the lifespan for the average CD is 30 years (under proper storage). This is related to the inherent vice in the plastic degrading over time and becoming brittle and warping, delaminating, etc.

The second issue is updating the data to be machine readable. While those wav files from 20 years ago are still readable now, many other file formats aren't and need to be converted to newer formats. We try to keep three versions of everything becaue of this, one on paper, one on the server and one on archival quality digital media. It's not a perfect system, but it is within our budget.


Burners?
By Mitch101 on 5/4/2007 2:42:14 PM , Rating: 2
It may come down to the HD Burners. If one can become cost effective enough with the drives and media then this might add a factor to it. But both with probably fall at similar rates making no one a winner.

Either way I am in desperate need of an archive media that stores more than 8.6gig. While I can convert to WMV or HD-Divx I choose to leave the majority of my HD content in TS format which requires about a 12gig disc. Triple layered DVD burners could solve this dillema but I feel either BlueRay or HD-DVD media with 30-50gig capacities would be much better for the masses.

If all else fails here is to the future UHDTV market with 13.1 surround sound and 4x HDTV resolution probably around 2012 timeframe.




RE: Burners?
By porkpie on 5/4/2007 3:20:49 PM , Rating: 3
Burners aren't going to drive movie sales. Sony will probably win on the data front, but most people buiyng movies could care less about this.


RE: Burners?
By Mitch101 on 5/4/2007 3:41:03 PM , Rating: 2
My thinking was If I were to buy an HD-DVD burner I am likely to buy a HD-DVD player for my HDTV.

There are HD camcorders and it would be nice to burn that content to an HD-DVD and play it back on a player.


Unified Format
By Jackyl on 5/4/2007 3:33:28 PM , Rating: 2
Having more than one format is a pain in the rear. There should've been a committee made up of people from all companies. (Sony, Pioneer, JVC, Panasonic, etc...) They should've collaborated and each contributed into making the next format. That way, all win. But instead we have greedy people going their own way and making their own formats.




RE: Unified Format
By Bladen on 5/4/2007 5:38:20 PM , Rating: 2
They tried that, and failed to agree on anything.


RE: Unified Format
By sdsdv10 on 5/5/2007 7:23:42 AM , Rating: 2
I bet the failure to agree was based more on egos than on technical specs...


As I thought
By greenchasch on 5/4/2007 1:57:54 PM , Rating: 5
quote:
HD-DVD...has managed to climb back this month to tie Blu-Ray
So much for Sony's BS about having won the fight.




Discs
By gramboh on 5/4/2007 2:24:37 PM , Rating: 3
I don't think discs sold is as good a measure as install base and adoption (hardware) rates. To me those are more critical measures, as is sales growth (discs), but not total sales since inception.




RE: Discs
By mindless1 on 5/7/2007 8:05:53 PM , Rating: 2
Except when you have unique devices where the consumer didn't have a choice in which drive format was used. They chose the device, not the HD standard. They may not ever seek the same standard again, were just locked into using it as the path of least resistance.


This Fall
By Sparke on 5/8/2007 10:09:19 AM , Rating: 2
The format war may not be over anytime soon but HD-DVD will be hurting this Fall:

Spider-Man 3 will be Blu-Ray only
Pirates 3 will be Blu-Ray only
Simpsons Movie will be Blu-Ray only
Fantastic 4: Silver Surfer will be Blu-Ray only
Die Hard 4 will be Blu-Ray only

Every summer blockbuster except for Bourne 3 and Evan Almighty will be either Blu-Ray exclusive or dual-format.

Metal Gear Solid alone will sell many PS3's, let alone the Home interface, LittleBigPlanet, Heavenly Sword and Ratchet and Clank. Even gamers like movies and WILL buy them.




RE: This Fall
By jadedeath on 5/8/2007 1:05:42 PM , Rating: 1
You forgot Shrek 3. Blu-Ray only.

What these HD-DVD fanboy supporters fail to realize is that with all the hype from Toshiba and Universal that Q4 this year will be big, it won't, what they're most likely planning on doing will be to release a ton of their older movies in Q4 to try and boost up sales because what they have coming out in new movies isn't that impressive compared to Pirates, Shrek or Spider-man.

Logan


4th paragraph
By therealnickdanger on 5/4/2007 1:45:04 PM , Rating: 2
This is the potential outcome that I agree with most: if both formats can survive long enough against the onslaught of DVD (which is not slowing BTW), that is. I started buying HD-DVDs very early and haven't regretted the decision, but I'm not buying either format now simply because I'm waiting for a cheap, full-featured combo-player. That's how this consumer is voting.




Plausable
By akyp on 5/4/2007 9:08:25 PM , Rating: 2
The other day I bought a stack of DVD-R discs, only to realise they were DVD+Rs when I got home. It didn't matter. The contents I put on those discs could be read from all three DVD drives I had. So I think there's a good possibility that the same will happen with HD-DVD and BR.

Now, I do aware that BR has higher capacity than HD-DVD, so BR may be the preferred format for writable media. But as for movie discs, they should be able to co-exist.




Bluray
By leexgx on 5/8/2007 7:11:31 AM , Rating: 2
i on the side of Bluray disks offer 25gb or 50gb of data per disk and for my use (forget movies) offers alot more yes HD-dvd have 51gb disks but thats tripple layer and most likey not work in every drive and cost alot more per disk

to bad tosiba did not make Bluray as hd-dvd would of been dead from the start if sony made it

both formats be around for an long time but as long as the combo drives come out {BD-RW/HD-DVD read} then it not matter that much if the user just looks at how much can be stored per disk thay would most likey go for the bigger one if thay need that size of disk




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