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Six percent plan to buy iPhone, according to market research firm

Apple’s iPhone product is one of the most talked about pieces of kit in recent memory, but according to a survey conducted by market research firm Markitecture, the majority of those who know about the iPhone have no plans on buying it.

Markitecture said that it surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,300 people who both owned their own cell phone and were responsible for the monthly payments. 77 percent of respondents were at least slightly familiar with the iPhone, and 41 percent had a good impression of the iPhone based on everything they had seen or heard.

Interestingly, familiarity with the iPhone is positively correlated with overall impression - strength of impression increases dramatically with increased exposure – 83 percent of those very familiar with the iPhone had an excellent or very good impression of the product.

Despite the relatively strong impression overall, six percent of those who were aware of the iPhone said they were likely to buy it within the next year. Two-thirds of the same group said that there was zero chance they would purchase the product.

For some industries, six percent market share is failure, but not so for mobile phones. Markitecture says that the highly successful Motorola RAZR after its launch in 2004 achieved a six percent market share at its peak.

As for reasons for not purchasing the iPhone, the $500-600 cost was cited as the top reason. The second issue was not specific to the iPhone however, as respondents cited carrier issues and/or contracts.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer already has his own forecast on Apple’s cell device, saying to USA Today, “There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.”

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6% ?
By Oregonian2 on 5/2/2007 2:00:51 PM , Rating: 3
If it does BETTER than the RAZR (which it would if it gets 6% with ONLY Cingular), I'll be very surprised.

It's VERY spendy and its keyboard has NO tactile feedback (essential for safe car use). And it at least looks in pictures to be a lot larger than RAZR or its smaller followons (K1 ,etc). So, reviewing: large, no tactile feedback on keyboard, single wireless vendor, and very very expensive even AFTER the vendor's discount. Hm... a world record coming?

Apple's marketting panache is really strong, but that strong (and I'm someone who has bought two 60G iPods)? I find it hard to believe.

P.S. - Yes, I know people have been "attacked" for making asumptions about the unit before having seen one. But I'm still willing to go out on a ledge saying that they keyboard doesn't have tactile feedback. The surface may only look flat as an optical illusion, but I'm willing to risk that it really is flat and even.

RE: 6% ?
By BMFPitt on 5/2/2007 2:59:14 PM , Rating: 2
If the iPhone was $99 after contract, then maybe they could sell 8 million. The truth is that most people will choose a free phone over a non-free phone no matter what, and sales figures show that.

Personally I wouldn't trade my phone for it if it was free, as the exterior screen wouldn't last a month with me.

RE: 6% ?
By defter on 5/2/2007 3:18:34 PM , Rating: 1
To clarify some things, in 2006:
- over 1 Billion mobile phones were shipped
- over 70 Million smartphones were shipped

For example, selling 8 million units annually means less than 1% of the marketshare.

RE: 6% ?
By Oregonian2 on 5/2/2007 6:52:00 PM , Rating: 2
Markitecture says that 6% of 77% (4.6%) of people who are responsible for their cell phones will be buying an Apple Cell phone within the next year. So for a billion sold, that'd be sales of 46 million according to Markitecture (who is the direct topic here). But, IMO it's not the world-market where their percentages apply although I think it may be for the rest of the numbers spoken.

Percentage would have to be only U.S. Domestic sales unless Cingular (now AT&T) operates internationally (like folk such as Orange do).

I don't think a billion (U.S. definition) is possible in the U.S. anyway, that'd be several cell phones per man, woman, and child.

I wonder if we're not seeing crossed numbers, meaning phones like Motorola's RAZR may have had a 6% world-wide marketshare, it had been revolutionary for all I read (wife just got a KRZR). But the iPhone could not reach that number this year even if every new Cingular customer opted for it (which would never happen, not even close). Cingular is only one section of one market. One couldn't even unlock it and use it on Verizon if one wanted to (not GSM).

So Markitecture has to be talking U.S. numbers only, and even then MAY be talking Cingular numbers only (and even then I think overly optimistic when the money has to hit the road and be paid out).

RE: 6% ?
By retrospooty on 5/2/2007 7:37:08 PM , Rating: 2
"- over 70 Million smartphones were shipped For example, selling 8 million units annually means less than 1% of the marketshare."

On what planet is 8 million less than 1% of 70 million? Its 11% and 11% or 8 milllion iphones is NOT going to happen. Mybe the next iteration of it will, when it supports Sprint, Verizon and 3g on all platforms, AND significantly drops teh price.

RE: 6% ?
By fil6786 on 5/2/2007 7:48:56 PM , Rating: 2
I think he was comparing to the $1 Billion phones.

RE: 6% ?
By fil6786 on 5/2/2007 7:49:45 PM , Rating: 2
Sorry. One billion phones. Can't get money out of my head

RE: 6% ?
By retrospooty on 5/2/2007 11:11:06 PM , Rating: 2
$1 billion dollar phone is the iphone 2 or 3 ;)

RE: 6% ?
By kelmon on 5/3/2007 10:06:41 AM , Rating: 2
its keyboard has NO tactile feedback (essential for safe car use)

Is it me or is anyone else alarmed by this statement? What the heck are you doing attempting to operate a phone whilst driving a car? If you need to use your phone by your hand then do the public a favour and pull over.

From my perspective the loss of a "real" keyboard is no loss at all - I've just gained a lot more screen space and that's more important.

RE: 6% ?
By Oregonian2 on 5/3/2007 1:35:59 PM , Rating: 2
First of all speaking pragmatically, from my observation it's likely that HUGE numbers of people talk from their car while moving. I see it going on every day. So something that helps/harms the "real world" is a consideration.

Speaking more personally, I call my wife while I'm driving home from work. Phone is connected as a speakerphone so takes no hand usage except for when calling and hanging up. Neither takes "looking". With buttons one can feel, I can call without having to move my eyes away from the road. I can feel where the buttons are and push down the button that calls my wife (or one of the others, knowing which is programmed to call where). Purely by feel (tactile feedback). That few seconds of push is all it takes and I'm speakerphoning from that point on, the same as talking to a passenger in the car. That's why an iPhone would be likely be dangerous to use (and I was beneficially assuming it can do "speakerphone" without having to look at it and pick that mode in a menu). People DO call while driving a car, so doing it safely is a good thing even if others would prefer one to drive with no phone and no passengers to verbally distract them (although doing so does bad things to the atmosphere and eliminates use of express lanes on some highways).

"Spreading the rumors, it's very easy because the people who write about Apple want that story, and you can claim its credible because you spoke to someone at Apple." -- Investment guru Jim Cramer

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