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PS2 showing no signs of slowing down despite being in its silver years
Mass market not ready for high-def gaming, says analysts

Before the two new console launches in November 2006, it was popular belief that supplies of the Nintendo Wii would be ample and consumers would be able to secure one without much hassle or worry. Today, a full five months following launch, Wiis are still hard to find, and those who do find them can resell them for a greater profit than the retailer.

According to one analyst’s opinion noted by Home Media Magazine, the demand for the Wii could outstrip supply all the way to 2009. “I believe the Wii will continue strong growth although supply continues to be a problem,” said Billy Pidgeon, video game analyst, IDC. “I’d like to see Wii hardware shipping in larger quantities or mass market consumers may cool on it. Having said that, I don’t believe supply will meet demand for the Wii until 2009.”

“Xbox 360 and PS3 need system-selling games ASAP. Halo 3 will help, as will Lair and Heavenly Sword, but that leaves a hole in Q2 which will be filled by Wii, DS and PSP hardware and software. We’ll also see more PC and PS2 software picking up the slack,” added Pidgeon.

Apparently he isn’t the only analyst who feels that the mass market isn’t quickly taking to high-definition gaming. Michael Pachter at Wedbush Morgan Securities thinks that the PlayStation 2 will remain a strong seller thanks to movie license games such as Spider-Man 3 and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

“It still seems to be the year of the PS2,” said Pachter. “Notwithstanding all of the other choices, consumers keep buying PS2 games, with barely any drop off. Virtually all of the year-over-year growth is attributable to a slower than expected decline in PS2 software sales.”

These analyst comments came immediately following the release of March video game hardware and software sales figures from NPD, with a particularly strong showing for Nintendo DS and PlayStation 2.

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Price matters
By knitecrow on 4/25/2007 4:41:19 PM , Rating: 4
From the numbers it looks like consumers are quite price sensitive, though hype hells as well. It is easy to splurge on a PS2. I know lots of people who have bought a PS2 along with one game and never touched it again.

You can't do that with an xbox 360 or PS3.

The Wii definitely seems to be the "IT" system and for $250 it is a relatively cheap way to get into gaming. I own a wii and haven't seen a reason to own any game beyond wii-sports. Any one know what the attach numbers are like for the wii?

RE: Price matters
By Warder45 on 4/25/2007 4:52:30 PM , Rating: 3
Same here, I have rented a few more Wii games but nothing is really as fun in a group as Wii Sports. The only other "Wii" game I've put any kind of time into Zelda, but I'm playing it on the Gamecube, so I'm not sure that counts.

RE: Price matters
By AntDX316 on 4/26/07, Rating: -1
RE: Price matters
By JimFear on 4/26/2007 9:06:21 AM , Rating: 3
Even +60fps in oblivion outside with all accesible options cracked to the max? (that includes AA and AF) :)

RE: Price matters
By Suomynona on 4/26/2007 9:51:40 AM , Rating: 4
I bow to your superior e-penis.

RE: Price matters
By SilthDraeth on 4/26/2007 10:24:34 AM , Rating: 2
That was almost funny.

RE: Price matters
By rushfan2006 on 4/26/2007 11:05:42 AM , Rating: 3
Finally a valid mod down....

Gotta love the little kiddies living at home flexing their e-peen as if to give them some valid significance above the average joe...because toy is badder than your toy......

While they don't hear the logical reply come back as "yeah but the other guy has a life ...."...


RE: Price matters
By Xavian on 4/25/2007 4:53:12 PM , Rating: 2
It's quite high actually, the attach ratio for the Wii is just over 3.5 right now, higher then the PS3 (2.4) and lower then the Xbox 360 (5.3).

Ofcourse this is for Japan and US only, since Europe numbers are very hard to come by.

RE: Price matters
By ninjit on 4/25/2007 5:03:55 PM , Rating: 2
Can someone explain what the attach ratio is?

RE: Price matters
By mcq01 on 4/25/2007 5:20:03 PM , Rating: 2
I think it is the number of games sold per console.

RE: Price matters
By Marcus Yam on 4/25/2007 5:29:47 PM , Rating: 2
Bingo. That number of 2.4 looks like a pretty good turnaround for PS3, which initially had less than a game to each console.

What I really want to see is how many Blu-ray movies each PS3 owner has, though I imagine that data would be difficult to fish out aside from using a sloppy survey.

RE: Price matters
By OxBow on 4/25/2007 5:45:00 PM , Rating: 2
2.4 is higher than I expected, since I only own 2 PS3 games myself (Resistance and Motorstom, both fun and pretty as all get out).

As for "owning" blue-ray movies, I only "own" one, the TDNights which came with the system. As for blue-ray movies I've rented, it's been around a dozen. Netflix is still great. It's a little disengenous to tie movie sales to player sales in the format war, since rental companies purchase the movies and not usually the players. I don't feel much need to "own" these movies, but I do enjoy watching them, so what does that mean for sales? Arbitrary metrics for complex supply chains.

RE: Price matters
By encryptkeeper on 4/25/2007 5:48:14 PM , Rating: 2
The mass market will be ready for HD when it comes down in price, bottom line. HD isn't like going from black and white tvs to color, and that has been the comparison since it was introduced. It's not that dramatic a change. The improvement is there, but it's not noticeable enough for people to go crazy over it.

That being said, by the time HD is cheap enough that the mainstream will buy it, something ELSE may be out to replace HD. That would be one nice vicious cycle.

I am a Nintendo fan no doubt, but a shortage until 2009? That's just a bit insane. It's already insanely popular, but severe supply shortages until 2009? Was that a mistake? Was that actually Ken Katarugi's (sp) estimate on how long the PS3 would be in high demand?

RE: Price matters
By Oregonian2 on 4/25/2007 5:57:55 PM , Rating: 2
The mass market will be ready for HD when it comes down in price, bottom line. HD isn't like going from black and white tvs to color, and that has been the comparison since it was introduced. It's not that dramatic a change. The improvement is there, but it's not noticeable enough for people to go crazy over it.

Especially compared to a well made regular DVD upscaled and connected digitally through an HDMI connector.

RE: Price matters
By Lakku on 4/25/2007 10:58:46 PM , Rating: 1
I'm sorry, but if you two are telling me the difference between normal TV/DVD and HDTV isn't that drastic, I would like some of what you are smoking. As for the DVD comment I am replying to, you are more correct than the first post, but even so, it still looks better. It all depends on how the High Def movie is mastered, some don't look much, if any, better, while others look quite a bit better. Either way, as for the first guy, you either 1) Have a crappy HDTV (or a really good CRT TV as they tend to display SDTV signals a lot better then native digital displays) or are 2) Blind (or you don't really pay attention).

RE: Price matters
By bubbacub616 on 4/26/2007 1:56:17 AM , Rating: 2
he isn't saying that there is minimal difference between hd and sd, he is only pointing out that the differnce is much less than the jump from b&w to colour (which was something ordinary joe's really appreciated)

RE: Price matters
By RandomFool on 4/26/2007 9:55:12 AM , Rating: 2
There is a difference between the two but it not a big enough justification for most people to go out and spend the money on it. Heck I still used Rabbit ears on a 19in CRT tv in my room. The qualitiy isn't great but I don't really need that sort of quality while watching the Office. Cost is the biggest barrier to adoption and the added quality isn't enough.

RE: Price matters
By jconan on 4/25/2007 8:23:08 PM , Rating: 2
Actually it's not a shortage it's just in time. Not too much and not too little for Nintendo. I've checked with most stores as soon as shipments come in i.e. for Best Buy or Circuit City the Wii's are gone. Some of these stores get shipments randomly on weekends or weekdays i.e. 1 local Toysrus gets shipments on Sundays with about 50 to 60 Wii's while some a dozen. Hopefully RE Umbrella Chronicles for Wii comes out sometime soon this year maybe that will fill some of the void.

RE: Price matters
By BladeVenom on 4/25/2007 8:07:30 PM , Rating: 2
The attach ratio would have to be less than .33 movies per console. They've sold almost 3 million consoles, but they've only sold one million Blu-ray discs. You'd also need to subtract how many discs went to owners of stand alone players, but I don't know how many that would be.

While some Sony fans might want to justify the high the cost of the PS3 because it is also a Blu-ray player, it looks like most PS3 owners don't care much about Blu-ray so far since most don't own a single movie for it.

RE: Price matters
By Alpha4 on 4/25/2007 10:32:44 PM , Rating: 2
I agree with your assessment and am scratching my head as to why it was modded down. Perhaps it'd be possible to determine the attach-rate of Blu-Ray movies to PS3's if they had each PS3 with an internet connection anonymously report each instance a unique Blu-Ray movie is played at least two weeks apart (to rule out any rentals). That would account for a purchase, wouldn't it?

RE: Price matters
By Lakku on 4/25/2007 10:52:04 PM , Rating: 2
It was probably voted down because, last time I checked, the majority of people rent movies rather then buy them. It makes sense, since games tend to have more 'replay' or added value, especially if they have multiplayer. You can't just say most people with a PS3 don't care about BD (you imply it by saying they justify the high cost of PS3 because it plays BD movies) by sales of movies, because as I said, most people rent movies, rather then buy them. This is especially true with Netflix and Blockbuster online nowadays. I know plenty of people unfortunately, that use these services to rent movies cheap, burn them, send back for more, and burn some more. Hard to do that with games. Anyway, that last bit is just some speculation as to why people tend to rent movies rather than buy.

RE: Price matters
By BZDTemp on 4/26/2007 8:28:17 AM , Rating: 2
You can't do that with an xbox 360 or PS3.

Sure you can. I only have PGR3 for my 360.

Not that I would not like more games it's just that so many 360 games are either to arcade like or also appear on PC where they are more fun to play (plus cheaper plus there is often Mod's which add even more fun).

I hope the same will not be the case with my PS3 but at least it can run Linux so it can do other stuff besides gaming (no - the lame video play function on the 360 does not count as streaming from a PC seems just silly to me)

RE: Price matters
By Ravenlore on 4/26/2007 2:33:05 PM , Rating: 2
ITs not just price is is not yet time for a New HDTV or BB for many people and not just that but the games play the same just look beter on next gen consoles. when home launches and gaems take advantage of PS3 and people move to HDTV in 2008 and beyond then the people who bought PS2 will move on to PS3 just like they moved on from PS1!!

"I'd be pissed too, but you didn't have to go all Minority Report on his ass!" -- Jon Stewart on police raiding Gizmodo editor Jason Chen's home
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