Stanford: World Will Have Robot-driven Cars on Roads by 2030
February 19, 2007 1:37 AM
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A driverless robot car with brains may be road ready by 2030, according to Sebastian Thrun, a great mind in self-driving vehicle development
Speaking at the American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in San Francisco, Sebastian Thrun, a Stanford University computer science and electrical engineering professor, estimated that
robot-driven cars will be road ready by 2030
Thrun cited strong advances in the development of artificial intelligence as one of the main reasons that the world could see driverless cars by 2030. Along with not having a human driver controlling the car, new vehicles should also function properly in a simulated city environment.
Thrun is regarded as one of the world's most successful and innovative manufacturers of self-driving vehicles. Thrun's team previously won a $2 million prize after "Stanley," a modified Volkswagen Tourage, won a US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) contest in October of 2005. Another DARPA challenge in November will feature rule changes that force teams to have their cars obey traffic laws, deal with obstacles and basic road conditions, other vehicles, etc.
It is more likely that robot-driven cars will be seen on battlefields and other hostile environments rather than public roads any time soon, according to Thrun.
Stanford plans to enter "Junior," a converted 2006 Volkswagen Passat that has had its throttle, brakes and steering altered so a computer is able to control them. The car will be navigated via satellite GPS, with a number of lasers located on Junior's bumpers -- the lasers will be able to look multiple directions and has a range up to 50 yards.
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RE: And BattleMechs will be here soon as well.
2/19/2007 6:07:36 PM
> "Based on #2, how accurate are those lasers at 50 yards?"
A lot more accurate than your eyes will ever be.
> "would need the highest quality, nearly EMP-shielded electrical components ..."
EMP-shielded? Planning on driving through many nuclear blasts?
> "How fast can the computers calculate its movement speed and heading? "
Computer today can calculate the speed and heading of an ICBM fast enough to intercept it. Planning on driving Mach 21 anytime soon? I won't even mention that computers in 2030 will run a few hundred times faster than todays.
> "Your life is at stake..."
Your life is at the stake of your brakes also, and yet that doesn't stop you from driving. A computer-controlled vehicle is going to be far
than you driving it yourself.
> "I don't see it happening soon..."
In 1950, most people thought travel to the moon was impossible as well.
RE: And BattleMechs will be here soon as well.
2/20/2007 4:54:37 PM
there are many more sources of emp than a nuclear blast. Very large solar flares can cause emp like effects in our atmospher. These at this point in time can not be predicted.
I believe a previous poster is correct though in regards to the most likely scenario is a master control program (MCP) (hehehehe) governing the flow of traffic.
I digress, the main point of the previous poster was the desire to make the vehicle as safe as possible.
"Paying an extra $500 for a computer in this environment -- same piece of hardware -- paying $500 more to get a logo on it? I think that's a more challenging proposition for the average person than it used to be." -- Steve Ballmer
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