Intel's 2007 guidance outlines the projected volume of each SKU by the end of the year
Intel's latest partner guidance revealed the shipment
numbers it projects for 2007.
Two immediate things jump out for desktop projections: by Q4 2007, more than
85% of processor shipments will be at least dual-core; and by Q4 2007 the
company only expects 5% of its desktop shipments to transition to quad-core.
Not only will dual-core take the center stage by Q4, but the company's guidance
is also very clear about removing all 90nm SKUs before then as well -- no more
Pentium D, Pentium 4, or Celeron D. This means there will only be four
major components floating around in the channel and for OEMs: 65nm quad-core
processors (Core 2 Extreme and Core 2 Quad), 65nm dual-core processors (Core 2
Duo), 65nm single-core Pentium E2000 and 65nm single-core Celeron 400.
All of these processors are in some way Conroe derivatives. This
is a large departure from Intel's 2006 channel where we had some 65nm Cedar
Mill and Presler processors, a few 90nm Prescott and Smithfield
derivatives and all the Core 2 Duo SKUs. 2008 will really be the
first year in several where Intel will only support two generations of
processors: Penryn
and Conroe.
Intel's guidance expects approximately 5% of its Q4 2007 desktop market to
transition to quad-core, approximately 70% to transition to dual-core Core 2
Duo, 20% to transition to single-core Pentium E2000 and the rest to fill in the
single-core Celeron 400, which is really just the same as Pentium E2000 with
half the L2 cache.
For the mobile business, the transition guide is much murkier. Intel's
guidance suggests that the company will even support the 90nm Dothan CPU
in Q4 2007, though Core 2 Duo will assume 90% of the company's mobile volume by
that time. The rest of the market will fill in with legacy Yonah processors.
Intel's guidance for Q4 2007 on servers is also very clear: the company expects
a 70-30 split between quad-core Clovertown and dual-core Woodcrest. Where
quad-core will only consume a small portion of the desktop market, the server
market will be almost entirely dominated by quad-core.
"What would I do? I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders." -- Michael Dell, after being asked what to do with Apple Computer in 1997
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