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Intel's 2007 guidance outlines the projected volume of each SKU by the end of the year

Intel's latest partner guidance revealed the shipment numbers it projects for 2007.

Two immediate things jump out for desktop projections: by Q4 2007, more than 85% of processor shipments will be at least dual-core; and by Q4 2007 the company only expects 5% of its desktop shipments to transition to quad-core.

Not only will dual-core take the center stage by Q4, but the company's guidance is also very clear about removing all 90nm SKUs before then as well -- no more Pentium D, Pentium 4, or Celeron D.  This means there will only be four major components floating around in the channel and for OEMs: 65nm quad-core processors (Core 2 Extreme and Core 2 Quad), 65nm dual-core processors (Core 2 Duo), 65nm single-core Pentium E2000 and 65nm single-core Celeron 400.

All of these processors are in some way Conroe derivatives.  This is a large departure from Intel's 2006 channel where we had some 65nm Cedar Mill and Presler processors, a few 90nm Prescott and Smithfield derivatives and all the Core 2 Duo SKUs.  2008 will really be the first year in several where Intel will only support two generations of processors: Penryn and Conroe.

Intel's guidance expects approximately 5% of its Q4 2007 desktop market to transition to quad-core, approximately 70% to transition to dual-core Core 2 Duo, 20% to transition to single-core Pentium E2000 and the rest to fill in the single-core Celeron 400, which is really just the same as Pentium E2000 with half the L2 cache.

For the mobile business, the transition guide is much murkier.  Intel's guidance suggests that the company will even support the 90nm Dothan CPU in Q4 2007, though Core 2 Duo will assume 90% of the company's mobile volume by that time.  The rest of the market will fill in with legacy Yonah processors.

Intel's guidance for Q4 2007 on servers is also very clear: the company expects a 70-30 split between quad-core Clovertown and dual-core Woodcrest.  Where quad-core will only consume a small portion of the desktop market, the server market will be almost entirely dominated by quad-core.


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RE: Great to see dual core mainstream
By hellokeith on 2/1/2007 10:57:33 AM , Rating: 4
Guess Gabe Newell will be disappointed. He said back in '06 that quad-core is really where gaming needs to be in order to fulfill the demands of graphics, sound, physics, artificial intelligence, feedback fx, etc. I don't see dual processor systems being anywhere near mainstream, even for the high-end gaming crowd. So maybe Gabe and the rest of the game developer community will stop making excuses and whining about how hard it is to multithread games and start coming up with solutions, particularly for the dual-core dominated market of the next 2-3 years.


By paydirt on 2/2/2007 1:30:03 PM , Rating: 2
Dual processors are fairly cheap now, so I don't see WHY NOT the high-end gaming crowd would adopt them...? You can get a Core 2 Duo E6600 for $330, and soon that price will drop to the $2xx range.


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