Intel 2007 Transition Guide
February 1, 2007 8:43 AM
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Intel's 2007 guidance outlines the projected volume of each SKU by the end of the year
Intel's latest partner guidance revealed the shipment numbers it projects for 2007.
Two immediate things jump out for desktop projections: by Q4 2007, more than 85% of processor shipments will be at least dual-core; and by Q4 2007 the company only expects 5% of its desktop shipments to transition to quad-core.
Not only will dual-core take the center stage by Q4, but the company's guidance is also very clear about removing all 90nm SKUs before then as well -- no more Pentium D, Pentium 4, or Celeron D. This means there will only be four major components floating around in the channel and for OEMs: 65nm quad-core processors (Core 2 Extreme and Core 2 Quad), 65nm dual-core processors (Core 2 Duo), 65nm single-core Pentium E2000 and 65nm single-core Celeron 400.
All of these processors are in some way
derivatives. This is a large departure from Intel's 2006 channel where we had some 65nm
processors, a few 90nm
derivatives and all the Core 2 Duo SKUs. 2008 will really be the first year in several where Intel will only support two generations of processors:
Intel's guidance expects approximately 5% of its Q4 2007 desktop market to transition to quad-core, approximately 70% to transition to dual-core Core 2 Duo, 20% to transition to single-core Pentium E2000 and the rest to fill in the single-core Celeron 400, which is really just the same as Pentium E2000 with half the L2 cache.
For the mobile business, the transition guide is much murkier. Intel's guidance suggests that the company will even support the 90nm
CPU in Q4 2007, though Core 2 Duo will assume 90% of the company's mobile volume by that time. The rest of the market will fill in with legacy
Intel's guidance for Q4 2007 on servers is also very clear: the company expects a 70-30 split between quad-core Clovertown and dual-core Woodcrest. Where quad-core will only consume a small portion of the desktop market, the server market will be almost entirely dominated by quad-core.
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Chicken or the egg?
2/1/2007 10:50:07 AM
If Intel doesn't get the Quads out in numbers the software companies won't write for them. The software companies won't write for them until there is an economic reason to do so. ie lots of people with Quads out there.
I have noticed in this industry that the hardware generally precedes the software since *most* software is written for the mainstream user with the average system.
It's good that Intel will get the Quads out.
And it's NOT XP holding back the threads, it's the application. An application will use four cores when the programmers make it so.
RE: Chicken or the egg?
The Sword 88
The Sword 88
2/1/2007 11:39:43 AM
And when more quad cores are on the market more programmers will write programs to use them
RE: Chicken or the egg?
2/1/2007 12:44:20 PM
Not games. It seems their have been a trend (a bad one at that) that the most hype games are one that kill the current generation of video cards. Anyone can written game that over tax video card. IT takes a little bit of skill to move good graphics in to the affordable realm.
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