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Intel's 2007 guidance outlines the projected volume of each SKU by the end of the year

Intel's latest partner guidance revealed the shipment numbers it projects for 2007.

Two immediate things jump out for desktop projections: by Q4 2007, more than 85% of processor shipments will be at least dual-core; and by Q4 2007 the company only expects 5% of its desktop shipments to transition to quad-core.

Not only will dual-core take the center stage by Q4, but the company's guidance is also very clear about removing all 90nm SKUs before then as well -- no more Pentium D, Pentium 4, or Celeron D.  This means there will only be four major components floating around in the channel and for OEMs: 65nm quad-core processors (Core 2 Extreme and Core 2 Quad), 65nm dual-core processors (Core 2 Duo), 65nm single-core Pentium E2000 and 65nm single-core Celeron 400.

All of these processors are in some way Conroe derivatives.  This is a large departure from Intel's 2006 channel where we had some 65nm Cedar Mill and Presler processors, a few 90nm Prescott and Smithfield derivatives and all the Core 2 Duo SKUs.  2008 will really be the first year in several where Intel will only support two generations of processors: Penryn and Conroe.

Intel's guidance expects approximately 5% of its Q4 2007 desktop market to transition to quad-core, approximately 70% to transition to dual-core Core 2 Duo, 20% to transition to single-core Pentium E2000 and the rest to fill in the single-core Celeron 400, which is really just the same as Pentium E2000 with half the L2 cache.

For the mobile business, the transition guide is much murkier.  Intel's guidance suggests that the company will even support the 90nm Dothan CPU in Q4 2007, though Core 2 Duo will assume 90% of the company's mobile volume by that time.  The rest of the market will fill in with legacy Yonah processors.

Intel's guidance for Q4 2007 on servers is also very clear: the company expects a 70-30 split between quad-core Clovertown and dual-core Woodcrest.  Where quad-core will only consume a small portion of the desktop market, the server market will be almost entirely dominated by quad-core.


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RE: Great to see dual core mainstream
By miahallen on 2/1/2007 10:02:36 AM , Rating: 2
At first, it struck me how low the desktop quad-core percentages were too. But then I realized how uncommon multi-threaded desktop apps are...but I think this year will be the year of the multi-threaded app! And the majority of consumers who are still in the same boat as you, with a single core proccessor will realize...OH! I need a dual-core.

Quad-core is such a niche market right now, but by the end of '07 with a majority of the consumer base moving to dual-core, I think the market for quad core will ramp up quickly in '08. And with the Penryn VS Barcelona battle in full swing by then, I think we'll be seeing reasonable prices by then too!


RE: Great to see dual core mainstream
By peldor on 2/1/2007 11:55:16 AM , Rating: 2
Keep in mind Intel is dropping the Q6600 into the $500 range in Q2. http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=5595

At that point, a lot more people are going to be eyeing them. Anyone buying an E6600 or E6700 could step up to quad core for only a modest premium.


RE: Great to see dual core mainstream
By Lazlo Panaflex on 2/1/2007 2:23:05 PM , Rating: 2
I disagree. The E6600's will drop to $~213 in Q2 (not including the retailer's cut, mind you). Sure, it may be a good investment long term, but I'd rather spend the extra $300+ on a better GPU....


RE: Great to see dual core mainstream
By paydirt on 2/2/2007 1:32:18 PM , Rating: 2
Did you read the comment you were replying directly to? You say you disagree, but then you go on to agree. The previous comment says that people may step up for a modest premium, and you say the same thing.


By Lazlo Panaflex on 2/2/2007 2:16:33 PM , Rating: 2
What I meant to say is that dropping the extra $300 to step up to quad IMO isn't a "modest premium" (for most peeps); if I did have the funds & was a gamer, using the cash to "step up" to a more powerful GPU would be a better idea. Kapeich?


"Nowadays you can buy a CPU cheaper than the CPU fan." -- Unnamed AMD executive

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