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Vista: saving grace for the PC industry?

With Windows Vista having been already released for business customers and on the way to consumers in a little over a month, the PC industry is hoping the operating system will reinvigorate interest in technology. Consumers have become content with the massive amounts of processing power, huge amounts of memory, capacious hard drives and very little to take advantage of that power on a daily basis besides gaming.

According to the Washington Post, the prediction was the PC industry would grow by as much as 10% for 2006. Instead, we saw the two top players in the market, HP and Dell, stumble during the third quarter -- so much in fact that Q3 was the first time since 2002 that PC sales in the United States actually dropped. This is despite aggressive pricing on desktop and notebooks from all major players in the industry.

So with the industry dragging its feet through 2006, many are looking to Vista as the cure-all. The operating system, which will be released to consumers on January 30 will add to the bottom line of companies across the country. The Washington Post reports that "According to a Microsoft-commissioned study by the IDC market research firm, every dollar of Windows revenue translates into $18 in sales for someone else in the U.S. alone."IDC also forecasts that worldwide shipments of Windows Vista are expected to top 90 million units by the end of 2007.

Despite the rosy predictions on Vista shipments for 2007, according to Softchoice Corp., half of North American PCs aren't even up to the task of running Vista. On top of that, many companies often wait a year or so (or at least until the first service pack) before they start employing new versions of Windows from Microsoft to work out issues with software incompatibilities and hardware issues.

So while many companies may benefit from the release of a new Windows operating system, that benefit may be delayed as everyone catches up.



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here's my question:
By ksherman on 12/14/2006 1:04:30 PM , Rating: 2
If half of the PCs in N.A. cant even run Vista, and most buisnesses wait a year plus before parting with the money for the upgrade, how the crap are they comming up with 90 million shipping in 2007? Are the Europeans THAT crazy about Vista?




RE: here's my question:
By gerf on 12/14/06, Rating: 0
RE: here's my question:
By kamel5547 on 12/14/2006 1:41:10 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
4.) Managers, and people in general like thse few features and make IT get Vista so they can use them. Businesses then upgrade for non-IT related reasons.


Maybe at some smaller businesses or those with less rigorous IT practices. The company I'm at was buying 2000 until SP1 came out for XP. And we didn't upgrade 2000 machines to XP, policy is no OS upgrades in general, just wait for the machine to live out its useful life and buy a new one. We won't be upgrading any systems to Vista, same strategy here as with XP, its simply too expensive without enough benefit compared to what the money could be spent on.

But I agree, most people will get Vista through an OEM and not through upgrading. I think most businesses will get it the same way... OS upgrades are expensive on too many fronts (upgrade price, applicaiton compatibility, machines not surviving the upgrade process, staff costs) its hard to justify in my mind.



RE: here's my question:
By gerf on 12/14/2006 3:46:03 PM , Rating: 2
But, I can imagine a manager wanting Vista, and since he can't get an "upgrade" to it, he'd just order a new box.


RE: here's my question:
By copiedright on 12/14/2006 5:28:54 PM , Rating: 2
I totally agree Kamel...
Actually I dont know a single person that has a copy of WinXP by means other than OEM or Pirate.


RE: here's my question:
By slarry on 12/14/2006 5:42:00 PM , Rating: 1
I don't really know what your company does but I have worked for an accounting firm and a hospital (high security conscientious companies) and they both run XP pro not for the cool features (Picture viewer, Media Player, etc.) but for its outstanding security. Now you guys can say anything you want about security in XP but if you configure your network correctly you will have little to no loop holes. I have seen it for myself. PS I am also not just a user for these compaies, I was an IT guy for both and we had a consulting security company come in and try to hack our network and they failed. As you can see there are more benefits to a new OS than just a cool look or nice media features.

But, I do agree with companies waiting until SP1 comes out for Vista, and even though the current computers at both of these companies are Vista "compatible" Vista would STILL eat up a lot of resources which is exactly what you do not want an OS to do.


RE: here's my question:
By Oregonian2 on 12/14/2006 2:55:50 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Vista has a nifty interface (Aero) and a TCP/IP stack that, if I've read correctly, will allow you to bandwidth limit individual applications.

Of course one can do that in Windows XP with third party software where you can set both the incoming and outgoing bandwidths individually per application as well as other more sophisticated stuff (and not expensive either). Maybe they'll sue Microsoft for being anti-competitive. :-)


RE: here's my question:
By Pirks on 12/14/2006 3:45:59 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
one can do that in Windows XP with third party software where you can set both the incoming and outgoing bandwidths individually per application as well as other more sophisticated stuff
link plz


RE: here's my question:
By gerf on 12/14/2006 3:47:14 PM , Rating: 2
I would also like to have a link to this application. edtgerf@gmail.com

Thanks


RE: here's my question:
By nick8571 on 12/14/2006 4:32:44 PM , Rating: 2
RE: here's my question:
By Pirks on 12/14/06, Rating: -1
RE: here's my question:
By borowki on 12/14/2006 1:21:05 PM , Rating: 2
What is so surprising about the 90 million figure? Annually over 100 million computers are shipped worldwide. A large majority of these will have Vista pre-installed.


RE: here's my question:
By msva124 on 12/14/2006 1:39:50 PM , Rating: 3
Analysts are notorious for being wrong or even flat out lying. There's a reason you can only view articles on IDC's site dating back to May 2005. The past is too embarrassing.


RE: here's my question:
By FITCamaro on 12/15/2006 1:58:25 PM , Rating: 1
So are weathermen (and women for you PC nazis out there). But they still make a butt load of money every year despite being wrong over half the time.


RE: here's my question:
By msva124 on 12/15/2006 5:16:13 PM , Rating: 2
Weather people, you chauvinist pig!


RE: here's my question:
By dgingeri on 12/14/2006 1:50:52 PM , Rating: 1
I will be upgrading, just not right away, but likely before the end of 2007.

I have upgraded every MS OS on release day since DOS6.0 came out. I even waited outside on a cold early morning for CompUSA to open so I could get DOS6.0.

Vista is different. The advantages aren't very many, and won't be used anytime soon. The disadvantages are many, and likely a deal breaker for most of my software. I won't be upgrading for a while, at least until I get patches for a few of my valued programs.

However, my company is going to be upgrading as soon a possible. We have yet to receive our DVD's for Vista, so we can't begin testing yet. We are a volume license customer, but they have only sent us download instructions.

All in all, I figure about half of our systems won't handle Vista. We will likely begin upgrading about August and be about half converted by December. That's about 120 licenses right there. My personal machines will likely gt upgraded at about the same time to the Ultimate version. My family will likely get theirs upgraded too at about that time.

I'm sure the 90 million mark is about right, perhaps a little low. all machines will likely need an upgrade to operate comfortably. Many have said 4GB to comfortably run Office 2007 on Vista. People will pay it, and they will like it. I remember that from the initial Windows XP push. (Yes, I even got that on release day. OEM copy ordered from Newegg, which is likely this time around.) The whole 'new' thing is big here in the states. That will be the big selling point.


RE: here's my question:
By darkpaw on 12/14/2006 3:50:07 PM , Rating: 1
4GB just for Vista and office is much too high of an estimate. My older laptop runs vista ultimate with office just fine with 1GB.

I'd be more comfortable with 2GB since I tend to use more then just office, but for a lot of people 1GB will work.

4GB is what I have in my primary desktop and that is more then enough for Vista, Office, and 2-3 other resource intensive programs running at the same time. I usually still have 1.5gb+ of free RAM.

From multiple installs I've done, Vista Ultimate with every option enabled consumes about 500mb of RAM at start-up, including multiple drivers, AV, etc.



asdf
By grimdeath on 12/14/2006 1:17:52 PM , Rating: 2
having used vista ultimate for nearly a month now I can safely say its defiantly a step up from vista, not night and day but it has alot of little features that make it worth it in my mind. Ill bash MS just like the next guy but vista is a solid product that "borrows" (har har) alot of features from good places.

we'll just have to wait and see how consumers react to it.




RE: asdf
By Samus on 12/14/2006 1:26:49 PM , Rating: 2
half of my clients in manufacturing still use Windows98 and Peachtree v6


RE: asdf
By therealnickdanger on 12/14/2006 1:40:02 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah, if it ain't broke...

I've loaded the Vista Beta on a couple computers and liked it a lot. My 1.6GHz Core Duo laptop worked it like a champ, so I've got no qualms about loading Ultimate when I get it. I'm ready and waiting...


RE: asdf
By encryptkeeper on 12/14/2006 3:50:52 PM , Rating: 2
A lot of people here complain about analysts predictions being exaggerated, and what they fail to realize is Microsoft exaggerated the requirements of Vista. I'm not trying to down your laptop, but my clients have tested Vista betas with all the features and it runs fine. 512, 32 mb video card, it runs just fine. Just about any computer better than a Celeron or Sempron and 512 should run it just fine.


RE: asdf
By encryptkeeper on 12/14/2006 3:53:04 PM , Rating: 2
I meant to mention that they were even running the high demand video, like Aeroglass.


hmmm....
By klingon on 12/14/2006 2:11:58 PM , Rating: 2
Im only worried abt gaming.......most of the ppl and websites say tht after installing Vista Ultimate(RC1) the frame rates of games were reduced considerably.......

Other than gaming the Vista's GUI is pretty fantastic and i say it is better than Mac OS X Leopard....




RE: hmmm....
By TejTrescent on 12/14/2006 3:52:42 PM , Rating: 2
Maybe they should upgrade their graphics hardware, then. With a 6300, 1GB of RAM, and a 6800 I'm running FEAR more than comfortably.


RE: hmmm....
By Pirks on 12/14/06, Rating: -1
RE: hmmm....
By darkpaw on 12/14/2006 3:54:18 PM , Rating: 1
Framerates on Vista games in the released version for me are good.

That is assuming the game will even run! Gaming is currently Vista's biggest weakness, and thats mostly due to extremely poor driver support.

Civ4 is completely unplayable (screen blackouts whenever dialog pops up) on Vista and I couldn't even get some older games (EQ for example) to start.


RE: hmmm....
By Magnus Dredd on 12/14/2006 4:15:45 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah, annoyed about the gaming angle myself. I'm not upgrading anytime soon, so it annoys me that M$ wants all the developers to force me to in order to play new games.

I on the other hand would disagree about having a better UI. It's certainly a more flashy UI.

When viewing files and folders in detail view Vista STILL does not show how big a folder is.... If I have 250 folders in a directory (say user profile folders), and I want to know which is the largest, I have to hover my mouse over ALL 250 or get properties on each to find out... There's a 3rd party app called foldersize, but it's still retarded for this not to be fixed even now...

Come on even as horrible as Apple's old MacOS was, it could still add up the size of directories and list it in the size column.

There are other annoyances, and a fair number of improvements. From what I have seen, Vista doesn't bring enough features to offset the fact that it takes away even more of my control of my machine.


RE: hmmm....
By AtaStrumf on 12/14/2006 5:03:53 PM , Rating: 2
I so agree! Simple things like that don't get fixed, but one does though, I just wish I had it in XP, virtual folders that is. I had to buy a new 320 GB HDD just to merge 210 GB of files from 4 folders on 4 different disks, because it would have been a nightmare to manage them in 4 different folders. I'm pretty sure it would have been perfecty doable in XP and I couldn't even find any app to add that feature (and I tryed hard), so I used Nero to see all the files in one place and a bunch of shortcuts but it sucked and only worked till you added new files.


RE: hmmm....
By FITCamaro on 12/15/2006 2:02:43 PM , Rating: 2
I do agree that it'd be nice to be able to see the size of folders without moving the mouse over them. Toss me a link to that folder size app if you see this. Might install that on my home computer. FITCamaro@gmail.com


That's not ENTIRELY true...
By jtyson on 12/14/2006 2:42:03 PM , Rating: 1
I can understand the validity of the article, with the exception of one ommision; the last sentence of the first paragraph claims that massive hard drives and staggering processing power of today's PCs are without real purpose, save gaming. Um, hello? PORN?




RE: That's not ENTIRELY true...
By timmiser on 12/14/2006 3:04:56 PM , Rating: 2
You've got porn that requires high end processors & and gpu's??

What are you doing in there my man? You've got to hook us up!


RE: That's not ENTIRELY true...
By Pirks on 12/14/2006 3:48:49 PM , Rating: 1
it's a _3D_ PORN you momo :P


RE: That's not ENTIRELY true...
By Aikouka on 12/15/2006 2:59:06 PM , Rating: 2
He uses H264 to maximize the quality and amount of pornage per GB. The days of "relaxing oneself" to less-than-SDTV quality rmv's is over (and has been for quite awhile :P).

If the Graphic drivers are mature enough when Vista comes out, I'll use it :).


By encryptkeeper on 12/14/2006 3:56:39 PM , Rating: 2
LOL read this article from the bigwig at Seagate.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/30/magazines/fortune/...


yes! new vista article.
By msva124 on 12/14/2006 1:31:36 PM , Rating: 3
Having actually used Vista for the past several days, I can say that I'd rather use a Mac. Coming from me that is a vicious insult. If I had to choose one single deal-killer, it would be that my Thinkpad T42 with 1.7Ghz Centrino, on the default install, performs like an XP machine bogged down with spyware.

This is going to be one of the biggest flops of all time, and I'm not sure what the repercussions will be throughout the tech industry. The first year or so is going to be very awkward. People aren't going to upgrade to Vista. They aren't going to switch to Mac OS X. They are going to do - nothing. This is what happens when any industry matures. People are satisified with Windows XP, the same that they are satisfied with their kitchen sinks, 1996 model cars and toasters. They just work. But at the same time, you do have to buy a new toaster every once in a while. Software, well, it doesn't get old and stop working. How will they get us to buy a new one?

Microsoft will remain the biggest player in a shrinking tech industry. But software was sort of a one time thing. You do too good of a job, you won't be able to top yourself later. Once you run out of genius, you have to force people to upgrade through DRM strong-arming, or move on to sustainable industries like hardware, i.e. things that break. Look for Microsoft to do one of the two.




RE: yes! new vista article.
By Quiksel on 12/14/2006 2:32:42 PM , Rating: 3
I was going to mod you up (because I realize you bring honest dialogue to this story), but I figured I wanted to reply more than mod:

You're missing the point of the article: Vista is going to spark new interest in computing in general. People will buy new machines for Vista. It's the idea that having something that's an honest-to-goodness upgrade over the 5-year-old XP is exciting and worth being a part of. THIS, my friend, is what the article is about.

I will concede that I believe OS X is a fabulous OS, and on par with Vista (10.5 Leopard will probably be even better than Vista, but we haven't really seen much of it yet, so it's moot to debate), but the idea that people will WANT a new computer to run Vista speaks VOLUMES as to the viability of this new OS and the spark that it will bring to this new era of PC computing.

I'm excited to see how 2007 plays out: both hardware and software sectors are going thru ENORMOUS transition and the consumer gets to be a part of it. What a good time to be a tech geek!

Now to come up with all the money it will take to experience it in my own home... :/


RE: yes! new vista article.
By Pirks on 12/14/06, Rating: -1
By Pandamonium on 12/14/2006 1:05:15 PM , Rating: 2
If techies recommend people to "wait for Vista" instead of "buying now," of course sales are going to droop in the last quarter before an official release. Nobody wants to deal with upgrades, even if they're free.




anandtech review
By msva124 on 12/14/2006 5:11:11 PM , Rating: 2
I don't know if this has already been discussed, but is AT going to do a review and benchmarks of Vista? If so, will they be waiting until the January 30 release date?




Doesnt impress
By crystal clear on 12/15/2006 10:20:18 AM , Rating: 2
Quote-

"According to a Microsoft-commissioned study by the IDC market research firm, every dollar of Windows revenue translates into $18 in sales for someone else in the U.S. alone."IDC also forecasts that worldwide shipments of Windows Vista are expected to top 90 million units by the end of 2007.

unquote-Read this for more information

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/itanalyst/docs/...


*This report assumes that Business & Home user will immidiately & automatically switch over from XP to Vista.

When infact there are NO indications that this is true or correct.

*This report is paid for by MS with intentions to use it as
publicity material or promotions.

*They (MS) use IDC to give respectability to their hard sell
campaign.

*Nobody can forcast when users will switch over to Vista-but surely nobody is desperate or in a big hurry to take on Vista.

Conclusions-I doubt if all these overly optmistic estimates
or forecasts will hold any ground.
This report will soon be forgotten




hah
By GotDiesel on 12/14/06, Rating: 0
hah
By l3ored on 12/14/06, Rating: -1
RE: hah
By Pirks on 12/14/06, Rating: 0
RE: hah
By msva124 on 12/14/2006 4:54:06 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
apple made bloated OS X and macs are selling like crazy while pc sales are dropping.
Yeah, I know. I just looked at the sales figures today and Macs are absolutely trouncing PCs. Who ever knew they would have 15% market share in Q3 2006?


RE: hah
By Pirks on 12/14/06, Rating: -1
RE: hah
By creathir on 12/14/2006 11:48:35 PM , Rating: 1
Who would have thought that using STANDARD PC COMPONENTS would entice MORE people to purchase a Mac??? Who would have ever thought...

- Creathir


RE: hah
By Pirks on 12/15/06, Rating: -1
RE: hah
By msva124 on 12/15/2006 5:15:08 PM , Rating: 2
I was mocking you, by the way.


RE: hah
By Pirks on 12/15/06, Rating: -1
RE: hah
By msva124 on 12/16/2006 10:25:13 PM , Rating: 2
I could just as easily find a stat that shows Macs with 0.1% marketshare. It depends on how you define market.

If you define market as retail notebooks sold in the US, (and you believe Steve Jobs to be an accurate source of information on the subject) then yes, Macs do have 12% marketshare.


RE: hah
By Pirks on 12/18/06, Rating: 0
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." -- Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer














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