Although the Zune has cooled off a bit in sales since its
November 14 debut, Microsoft still expects to have shipped
more than 1 million units within its first seven months of availability.
The expectations are pretty modest on the part of Microsoft and could reflect
some trepidation over what Apple has in store for the first half of 2007.
"We're forecasting just over 1 million units for the
fiscal year. We feel pretty good about that number," said Zune marketing
director Jason Reindorp.
The Zune launched with quite a bang
(for a new player on the market with little to no brand recognition) managing
to capture 9% of the market during its first week on the market according to
NDP Group. Interest in the Zune has cooled off considerably since its launch as
the Zune's market share has dwindled down to 2%.
Research firm IDC is forecasting that 21.5 million hard
drive-based music players will be sold in 2006 with the Zune contributing
500,000 units to the figure. Microsoft itself projects that it will have 10% to
15% of the 30GB or larger music player market by June of 2007.
Microsoft also noted that a firmware update is on the way
for the Zune. The new firmware will include compatibility updates to allow the
Zune to function in Windows Vista, general bug fixes and performance tweaks.
There will, however, be no additional features included in the update.
So for those of you that were expecting to get expanded WiFi
functionality, you will be disappointed...at least for now. "It is
plumbing stuff, but it is stuff customers will notice and appreciate. It's not
going to be a whole new wireless scenario or anything like that," said
Reindorp. CNET reports:
Microsoft
also needs to expand how the Zune's Wi-Fi can be used, probably to allow a
direct connection for downloading music from Microsoft directly to the Zune.
Gartenberg notes, however, that such a connection is tricky to engineer in a
way that is still easy to use on a device that has no keyboard.
Microsoft also needs to push out a flash-based player to
allow the Zune to gain more traction in the marketplace. According to Jupiter
Research analyst Michael Gartenberg, flash-based players like the iPod Nano are
unstoppable this holiday season. "There is no flash Zune at a time when
the (iPod) Nano is just flying off the shelves. Those are the things they are
going to have to address in 2007 if they are going to be a credible
player."
