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90% of new Windows consumer client installations to be Vista Home-based in 2007

Microsoft has lofty ambitions for its next generation Windows Vista operating system as witnessed by statements made by the company in early October. Today, IDC issued some new projections for Windows Vista including the notion that over 90 million units of the operating system will ship in 2007 worldwide. That figure far outpaces Microsoft's assessment of 67 million units in the first year of availability for Windows XP.

"After a long wait, the adoption of Windows Vista will take place almost immediately among consumers, while businesses will follow a decidedly more conservative adoption curve," says Al Gillen, research VP of System Software at IDC.

On the consumer side, Vista Home Basic is expected to garner 67% of Vista purchases while Vista Home Premium will account for 30%. The enthusiast-oriented Vista Ultimate will account for 2% of the product mix with just 1% of consumers choosing Vista Business for use in home deployments.

For businesses, Vista Business will account for 82% of Vista deployments while Vista Enterprise will capture the remaining 18%.

Overall, IDC projects that 90% of new Windows client installations for home users will be comprised of Vista Home Basic/Vista Home Premium during the first year. On the business side, Vista Business/Vista Enterprise will account for just 35% of new client installations during the first year – that number rises to 80% during the second year of availability.

But while consumers buying new PCs will pretty much be forced into using Windows Vista after the start of the year, businesses are likely to be a bit more discriminating. Businesses typically wait until at least the first service pack for a new Windows operating system is released before they do any large roll-outs throughout the company.

Gartner suggests that companies should spend as much as 18 months testing a new operating system before moving to large-scale deployments. With Vista being launched for businesses tomorrow, now is the time to begin the testing phase (if companies haven't already done so with earlier versions of Vista). "If companies do decide to upgrade the biggest barrier will be application compatibility - 80 per cent of your applications will work and 20 per cent won't work. The vast majority of customers we speak to are looking at 2008 to upgrade but they need to start planning now," said Frank Foxall of Windows migration specialist Camwood.

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RE: Are you Vista ready????/
By TomZ on 11/30/2006 7:34:38 AM , Rating: 2
I personally don't see any need for XP SP3. The primary benefit to an SP3 would be to roll together post-SP2 updates to make installation of XP by end users go more quickly. So it is about convenience/time-savings more than anything.

SP2 was different - it delivered a bunch of important security-related changes. With XP now shored up in terms of security, and Vista there to provide the most streamlined installation experience, I don't see any strong requirement for an SP3 release. And considering resources, I'd prefer that Microsoft pour more resources into Vista updates than work on XP SP3.

RE: Are you Vista ready????/
By xphile on 12/1/2006 8:41:27 AM , Rating: 2
You personally don't matter at all. The primary benefit of SP3 is actually no such thing - it is to keep business users up to date and happy, since business users will still 75-80% all still use XP by the end of 2007. It is nothing about convenience, but businesses pay far more in total income than personal users so the things you mention are far more simply side effects. So there is your strong reason. If MS stops its well publicised program of supporting its last OS fully for at least 24 months after a new release, businesses will lose confidence in upgrading at all, they need that time to test new versions before they roll them out en masse. Despite the hype, home users dont really matter as much to Microsoft as you'd like to think.

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