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90% of new Windows consumer client installations to be Vista Home-based in 2007

Microsoft has lofty ambitions for its next generation Windows Vista operating system as witnessed by statements made by the company in early October. Today, IDC issued some new projections for Windows Vista including the notion that over 90 million units of the operating system will ship in 2007 worldwide. That figure far outpaces Microsoft's assessment of 67 million units in the first year of availability for Windows XP.

"After a long wait, the adoption of Windows Vista will take place almost immediately among consumers, while businesses will follow a decidedly more conservative adoption curve," says Al Gillen, research VP of System Software at IDC.

On the consumer side, Vista Home Basic is expected to garner 67% of Vista purchases while Vista Home Premium will account for 30%. The enthusiast-oriented Vista Ultimate will account for 2% of the product mix with just 1% of consumers choosing Vista Business for use in home deployments.

For businesses, Vista Business will account for 82% of Vista deployments while Vista Enterprise will capture the remaining 18%.

Overall, IDC projects that 90% of new Windows client installations for home users will be comprised of Vista Home Basic/Vista Home Premium during the first year. On the business side, Vista Business/Vista Enterprise will account for just 35% of new client installations during the first year – that number rises to 80% during the second year of availability.

But while consumers buying new PCs will pretty much be forced into using Windows Vista after the start of the year, businesses are likely to be a bit more discriminating. Businesses typically wait until at least the first service pack for a new Windows operating system is released before they do any large roll-outs throughout the company.

Gartner suggests that companies should spend as much as 18 months testing a new operating system before moving to large-scale deployments. With Vista being launched for businesses tomorrow, now is the time to begin the testing phase (if companies haven't already done so with earlier versions of Vista). "If companies do decide to upgrade the biggest barrier will be application compatibility - 80 per cent of your applications will work and 20 per cent won't work. The vast majority of customers we speak to are looking at 2008 to upgrade but they need to start planning now," said Frank Foxall of Windows migration specialist Camwood.



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Was it worth it?
By crystal clear on 11/30/2006 7:12:57 AM , Rating: 1
Ask yourself this question-

Takahashi: Why Vista may be last of its kind

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/busines...


A portion of the article goes like this-

Already, before anyone gets an official copy, experts are predicting Vista may be the last of its kind. Obsolete before it's out the door? Geez, we haven't even had a chance to open our wallets yet.

``Suddenly, the market changed and competitors started delivering technology at the speed of the Internet,'' said James McQuivey, professor of market research at Boston University. ``In some cases, they do it for free, and that's painful for Microsoft.''

The theory about the threat to the Redmond giant goes like this: Microsoft made Vista the old-fashioned way, as a single packaged product that it puts on a disk so users can buy it in a store and load it onto their computers. By contrast, rivals such as Google are creating spreadsheets and browsers that you simply download from a computer server, which delivers what you need to your desktop as you need it. If Google follows through with more offerings of free, ad-supported software over the Internet, Microsoft won't be able to charge a premium for its operating systems anymore. Nobody will need its big upgrades anymore.

Suppose this threat, or the one from the free Linux operating system, is real. Maybe Microsoft will have to issue smaller upgrades every year or so to keep up. You have to wonder if it is possible, or wise, for Microsoft to throw more money at any future project than it has thrown at Vista. This will probably be the last operating system from Bill Gates, who retires to do philanthropy in 2008. Was it worth it?


Unquote-
Food for thought.




RE: Was it worth it?
By TomZ on 11/30/2006 7:59:42 AM , Rating: 2
It's an interesting article, but wrong in a few ways.

1. Microsoft is already dribbling out functionality in "Internet time" for its OSs and applications - it's called Microsoft Update. My OS gets updates consisting of fixes and new functionality every couple of weeks. There is no additional cost for this service.

2. The set of requirements seen by OS software is still changing relatively fast. The last wave was "security," hence Vista, which required a lot of changes to the OS. Compare this to a spreadsheet or e-mail service, whose functionality has changed very little over the past 10 years.

3. Quality - When Microsoft releases an OS, it is very well tested (not to say perfect). Compare this to google's "Internet time" releases which are all, well, betas.

I do agree that offerings like Linux and OpenOffice.org do pressure Microsoft quite a bit to make sure they are delivering enough value to justify the price. That is a good thing, in my opinion, just like any other competition.


RE: Was it worth it?
By msva124 on 11/30/2006 7:26:20 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Already, before anyone gets an official copy, experts are predicting Vista may be the last of its kind.


Experts=Analysts=Idiots


RE: Was it worth it?
By Spivonious on 12/1/2006 2:47:33 PM , Rating: 2
Didn't the late 90s prove that ad-driven software is a fantastic way to go out of business?


RE: Was it worth it?
By Nekrik on 12/1/2006 10:34:43 PM , Rating: 2
Google?


RE: Was it worth it?
By Nekrik on 12/1/2006 10:34:44 PM , Rating: 2
Google?


“And I don't know why [Apple is] acting like it’s superior. I don't even get it. What are they trying to say?” -- Bill Gates on the Mac ads

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