IDC Reports PC Shipments Will Decline by Double Digits in 2013
December 4, 2013 10:18 AM
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IDC says 2013 will be one of the worst years yet for PCs
IDC has issued its latest report looking at the state of the PC industry. The company predicts that PC shipments will fall by 10.1% in 2013. This will be the worst year of contraction on record if IDC is correct.
IDC says that interest in PCs is very limited, giving little indication of positive growth other than replacing of existing systems. IDC is also predicting that sales of PCs will decline an additional 3.8% in 2014 before getting a little more positive in the long term.
IDC predicts that total PC shipments for 2013 will be a bit over 300 million units. That is only slightly ahead of the volume of PCs shipped in 2008.
"Perhaps the chief concern for future PC demand is a lack of reasons to replace an older system," said Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC. "While IDC research finds that the PC still remains the primary computing device – for example, PCs are used more hours per day than tablets or phones – PC usage is nonetheless declining each year as more devices become available.”
“And despite industry efforts, PC usage has not moved significantly beyond consumption and productivity tasks to differentiate PCs from other devices. As a result, PC lifespans continue to increase, thereby limiting market growth."
IDC does believe that 2-in-1 devices that can function as tablets and notebooks will drive some growth for Windows devices. IDC also predicts significant growth for Windows-based tablets with 29.3 million units in 2017 up from 7.5 million in 2013.
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RE: The Problem
12/4/2013 3:46:48 PM
There're plenty of possible improvements to the desktop experience. Take WinFS, for instance. What the hell ever happened to it? I still remember seeing BeOS for the first time almost twenty years ago. It seems so logical to store file metadata in a relational database. Finding things on one's hard-drive still sucks. It's easier to find what some dead guy said two hundred years ago than to find what I wrote myself two weeks earlier.
A big part of the problem is that leadership in the tech sector don't know how to operate in a matured industry. Everyone is still in the chasing the headline mentality. If it's now in the news then it's not relevant. The reality is that tens of millions of people use their PC's everyday to do productive things. The present stagnation reflects just useful it is, such that it manages to reach a saturation point. There's no much growth from people learning about the virtues of the PC and wanting to have one--because everyone has one already.
"Young lady, in this house we obey the laws of thermodynamics!" -- Homer Simpson
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