IDC Reports PC Shipments Will Decline by Double Digits in 2013
December 4, 2013 10:18 AM
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IDC says 2013 will be one of the worst years yet for PCs
IDC has issued its latest report looking at the state of the PC industry. The company predicts that PC shipments will fall by 10.1% in 2013. This will be the worst year of contraction on record if IDC is correct.
IDC says that interest in PCs is very limited, giving little indication of positive growth other than replacing of existing systems. IDC is also predicting that sales of PCs will decline an additional 3.8% in 2014 before getting a little more positive in the long term.
IDC predicts that total PC shipments for 2013 will be a bit over 300 million units. That is only slightly ahead of the volume of PCs shipped in 2008.
"Perhaps the chief concern for future PC demand is a lack of reasons to replace an older system," said Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC. "While IDC research finds that the PC still remains the primary computing device – for example, PCs are used more hours per day than tablets or phones – PC usage is nonetheless declining each year as more devices become available.”
“And despite industry efforts, PC usage has not moved significantly beyond consumption and productivity tasks to differentiate PCs from other devices. As a result, PC lifespans continue to increase, thereby limiting market growth."
IDC does believe that 2-in-1 devices that can function as tablets and notebooks will drive some growth for Windows devices. IDC also predicts significant growth for Windows-based tablets with 29.3 million units in 2017 up from 7.5 million in 2013.
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12/4/2013 1:14:06 PM
Intel beat down their competition, and then slowed down the rate of advancement. (If AMD had had a decent chance to get the original Slot A motherboards out on the market back in the day, they'd have made billions just taking a small part of the market, and we'd probably have processors twice as fast and twice as complex for cheaper. Instead Intel threatened to withold 440BX chipset supplies from any motherboard manufacturer who sold a Slot A motherboard, keeping AMD's adoption rate in the toilet.) The last three generations of Intel processors haven't had any significant advancement except for power consumption, and their chipsets have been at a standstill. They finally added USB 3.0, and it's only good for two ports! We've had that for years already! They finally made all their SATA ports 6Gb, but we've had at least that much for three generations already. They aren't advancing at all.
Because of this, people don't need new computers. My whole family is still on computers that are at least 5 years old, and the only reason they've upgraded memory is to upgrade to Windows 7 from XP. None of them have any intent on getting new systems. My younger sister is still using an old Pentium D desktop with 2GB of memory. My parents still use their old Athlon 4400+ machine.
Intel has dug themselves into this hole. Microsoft hasn't pushed Windows to use more memory since Vista simply because they don't think Intel is going to make more advanced stuff available for a while longer.
If Intel were to push processors into the 6 and 8 core range and memory controllers up to the 128GB range, people would build software to use that.
What we need is usable voice recognition that doesn't require hours of training to get the PC to understand us. We need 3D displays that don't require special glasses, real 3D instead of the tricks we use now. (Maybe layers of transparent OLED sheets would work for that.) We need systems that are capable of learning and adapting to user patterns and anticipate what they user needs.
When we get those, even one of those, we'll see things take off again. None of Intel's hardware, from the processor to the GPU to the chipset, can handle any of it because they haven't allowed their engineers to design systems that could handle it. We aren't likely to see any of this unless a competitor comes up from the depths and makes it available. Intel might respond then.
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