IDC Lowers PC Outlook Further for 2013
September 2, 2013 8:09 AM
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Tablet adoption is no longer a first world problem for the PC industry
Analytics firm IDC has lowered the global outlook for the PC market even further for 2013. IDC reduced its outlook as mature markets are now projected to outgrow emerging markets in 2013. Worldwide PC shipments are now expected to fall by 9.7% for 2013, expanding the largest market contraction on record.
According to IDC, mobile devices will continue to erode demand for traditional PCs – this fact is seen by many as one of the reasons for
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s
“retirement”. IDC now predicts that the market as a whole will decline through at least 2014 with single-digit modest growth from 2015 on.
China is expected to see a double-digit decline in shipments this year compared to 2012. Factors contributing to that include high levels of stagnant inventory and continued enthusiasm within China for tablets and smartphones.
IDC predicts that the PC market will shrink by nearly 10 percent for 2013
"The days where one can assume tablet disruptions are purely a First World problem are over," said Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC. "Advances in PC hardware, such as improvements in the power efficiency of x86 processors remain encouraging, and Windows 8.1 is also expected to address a number of well-documented concerns. However, the current PC usage experience falls short of meeting changing usage patterns that are spreading through all regions, especially as tablet price and performance become ever more attractive."
IDC expects a slow rebound in computer shipments beyond 2014 as consumers begin to replace PCs that have seen significantly lengthened lifecycles in recent years. After 2014, businesses are also expected to begin taking their
first serious look beyond Windows 7
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I could be wrong but...
9/2/2013 6:21:08 PM
I could be wrong but I don't feel like tablets are the biggest cause of this. Tablets are popular right now but they just don't replace real computers. Having used a tablet for a while, really the only thing I like about it is the portability. They're much less capable, drastically harder to use (I have come to hate touch screens), and forget about content creation. I find it a pain to even try and compose an email on a tablet.
I think the reason for slow PC shipments has more to do with the slowing of their advancement and a bit to do with Windows 8. Lets face it, PCs don't advance nearly as fast as they did a few years ago. While they're getting more efficient, they're not getting a whole lot faster. Years ago, you needed a new PC every couple years if you wanted to run recent software faster than a snails pace. These days a decent computer that's a few years old can still be fairly decent. I'm running a computer (Core 2 Duo) that, at it's core, is over 5 years old and it still runs fairly well and I even do quite a bit of gaming on it.
Windows 8 is another thing that I feel holds some people back. I'm not going to debate whether it's actually good or not. It has a bad reputation and plenty of people (like me) don't want a Windows 8 system. So ultimately I feel that a lot of people are running older systems longer than they used to. There's really little incentive for most to upgrade, and sometimes even dis-incentive (Win8). If companies want to get people buying new PCs they need to offer them something new that THEY WANT, not what the companies try to force on them.
RE: I could be wrong but...
9/3/2013 3:08:50 PM
I think the disincentive of Windows 8 cannot be overstated. Recently a family member bought a new PC with Windows 8 on it from a big box retailer. Being an older gal she had a hard time adapting to the new UI and eventually went back to the store to have something done about it at which point they recommend she take classes etc to learn Windows 8. Frustrated she ended up not using it since she could not return it instead letting it gather dust for months now. I offered to install windows 7 on it for her but ultimately told her to wait for 8.1 to see if Microsoft would fix the problems with the OS. Recently i learned that the big box retailer contacted her and offered to install windows 7 on it for her; basically downgrading her from Windows 8. This tells me all i need to know about the pressures big box retailers are feeling from the windows 8 debacle and the lack of faith they have in Windows 8.1 to sell new PC's.
"It's okay. The scenarios aren't that clear. But it's good looking. [Steve Jobs] does good design, and [the iPad] is absolutely a good example of that." -- Bill Gates on the Apple iPad
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