ExxonMobil Energy Report: Diesel Fuel Will Overshadow Gas, CO2 Emissions to Drop 20 Percent
March 12, 2013 11:46 AM
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These are just a couple of figures in ExxonMobil's insight through 2040
said it plans to invest $185 billion in energy projects over the next five years, and has given its insight on what the future of energy looks like through 2040.
ExxonMobil has released its report, "The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040," which takes a look at some
and predictions for the coming decades.
The report sees the global population increasing from 7 billion people today to about 9 billion in 2040. With this population bump, energy demand will grow 35 percent worldwide (65 percent in developing nations alone compared to 2010).
The report said automotive technology like hybrid cars are expected to keep global personal transportation energy demands steady for the most part. By 2025, it sees full hybrid prices coming down and these types of vehicles accounting for 40 percent of the global vehicle fleet by 2040. However, plug-in hybrids and electrics will likely only make up five percent of the market by 2040.
Vehicles will move away from gasoline as the No. 1 transportation choice thanks to tech like light-duty engine efficiency, and see an increase in diesel fuel instead. In fact, diesel will make up 70 percent of fuel demand growth through 2040.
in OECD countries will be 20 percent lower in 2040 than 2010.
Also due to the population increase, electricity generation will be in great demand over the decades. In fact, ExxonMobil says it will account for more than half of the increase in global energy demand (electricity demand alone will grow 85 percent from 2010 to 2040). Electricity and natural gas will account for more than 60 percent of the world's residential/commercial energy demand by 2040 as cleaner fuels are used.
Oil will remain the No. 1 global fuel while natural gas steals coal's spot for second place. The report said coal will peak, and then decline as nuclear power and renewable energy grows. Oil and gas will supply about 60 percent of the global energy demand in 2040 (a 55 percent increase from 2010).
At 2040, North America will likely go from net importer to net exporter of oil. With growing demand and an evolving energy landscape, more global trade opportunities will arise.
A couple of other highlights include a 50 percent increase in energy demand for chemical production, and nuclear/natural gas generation in non OECD countries will increase by 150 percent.
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RE: Well, duh!
3/12/2013 11:13:28 PM
I'm in NJ, born there too, but with foreign business travel including DoD. Huge proponent of the second amendment and eagle scout. Not bashing the United States, not even close actually. However, the average citizen cannot think past the next episode on the tube let alone ROI.
Agreed, diesel cars cost more to purchase and fuel. In NJ, its about 30 cents more per gallon and my oil change this past Sunday was $90 on the TDI for car whose sticker was 31,000 in 2006. As you said, any decent car nowadays should last at least 100,000. Agreed, mine has 150,000 on it and plan to run it until it completely dies, but even then the parts are worth something. I broke even around year four and we are on year seven. Business people would call that investment.
In fact, my CFO hates whenever I drive for business somewhere at 0.56 a mile since he knows it only costs me $57 to fill it once for a 500 mile round trip drive. Even factoring in 0.15 per mile ownership cost (its really less, but whatever), still works out to be $150 profit. Do that several times a year and its real money. In my case, its about $1000 unrealized extra revenue per year over the past seven years.
Almost all of the Jetta's I see on the interstate are TDIs with most of the Passats as well for good reason... diesels are highly efficient at constant RPM interstate driving. This Passat did 1600 miles on a single tank -
Sure, say whatever you want about VW. Fair enough, but right now they are the only cost conscious diesel option and more than half of their business is from diesel so they are doing something right. Chrysler is bringing on more diesels, all Audis will be soon enough, and MB always has a fair share. Honda missed the boat and plus you mentioned Mazda, still waiting for them as it would be interesting to see. Whatever happened to Nissan's plans? Ford too is missing the boat while they are getting laughed at for the miserable claimed economy. Hyundai should make a diesel, especially since they were also caught making false mileage claims.
RE: Well, duh!
3/13/2013 9:55:42 AM
Just pulling the MSRP off the VW website a base Jetta is $20,845 then you add in TDI and it's $26,225. That's 22mpg standard versus 31mpg for the TDI variant. Then using the national average diesel is $0.377 higher than gas. That means you break even at around 145,000 miles. If you put 15k per year on your car that's 9 years to break even. That's a piss poor ROI for most people. In fact most people would never break even. If you drive a lot then it might work for you but the vast majority of people the TDI is a bad deal.
Just for comparison I looked at the Ford Fusion Hybrid and it's base price is $27,200 and 47mpg. That means you break even at 75k miles which is much more achievable.
RE: Well, duh!
3/13/2013 5:46:23 PM
As you noted, it all depends on the use case. Road warriors with high percentages of interstate driving have a faster return than around-town usage.
Not sure about your numbers though. The VW site has the price of a stripped Jetta TDI for 24,155 while the Ford Fusion Hybrid starts at 27,200. Sure, its not an apples to apples comparision due to the options difference, but the ROI definitely changes. I am a definite fan of the new Fusion looks, but based on Ford's recent mileage claims and proven real-world mpg performance of VW diesels, its also not a fair armchair hypermiler comparsion. On paper vs reality, the numbers are different.
For my use case and at 25,000 miles per year, the best car would be a plug-in diesel hybrid followed by a pure diesel.
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