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James Hansen puts an interesting spin on reports of the ninth warmest year on record

2012 was a kind of glass-half full, glass half-empty year in terms of global temperature.  

I. Climate Chief: Don't Worry, We're Still Doomed

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) in-depth analysis of satellite and other forms of climate data ruled the year was the ninth warmest on record.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) independent analysis of ground and sea-based climate stations reported that the year was the tenth warmest on record.

The NASA report states that the average global temperature was 58.3 degrees Fahrenheit (14.6 Celsius), which is 1.0 F (0.6 C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline, or 1.4 F (0.6 C) warmer than the earliest comprehensive observations from the 1880s.

Still, the year marks the fifth year of a relative flatline in global temperatures after a decade in which the record was regularly broken.

Global warming proponents like James Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, blame this deviation from their "doomsday" calculations on a specialized cooling phenomenon called "La Nina", which lowers temperatures in the Eastern Pacific.

Surface temperatures
Despite flat-lining surface temperatures over the last five years, some climate researchers insist we're headed to doomsday warming and should keep our fingers on the panic button.
[Image Source: GISS]

The climate official claims that aerosols, which reflect solar radiation, also had a cooling affect on temperatures.

Mr. Hansen argues that the public shouldn't just look at the numbers, but look at more nebulous and abstract observations, which he sees as supporting his beliefs of runaway warming.  He writes, "The observant person who is willing to look at the past over several seasons and several years, should notice that the frequency of unusual warm anomalies has increased and the extreme anomalies."

He and other global warming advocates have pointed to the summer's drought in central North America and high temperatures in the Rocky Mountains as such "extreme anomalies".  

II. A Hot Year for the U.S., Arctic, but a Cool One Elsewhere

2012, according to a separate NOAA report, was the hottest year on record for the U.S. The year did mark a new low for summer Arctic sea ice, according to NASA.  However, that could bring some benefits for mankind, such as opening up oil resources.

NOAA map
Parts of the globe cooled, others warmed in 2012. [Image Source: NOAA]

And temperatures for the year were actually cooler than average in several regions -- Alaska, far western Canada, central Asia, parts of the eastern and equatorial Pacific and parts of the Southern Ocean.

California meteorologist Anthony Watts, a known critic of doomsday predictions from folks like James Hansen, casts the U.S.'s record year in a different light, commenting, "If anything, U.S. temperatures are warming at a slower rate in recent decades compared to the early warming period, even with all of that lovely warm weather last year."

He points out that the recent increase (1980-2012) in U.S. surface temperatures was dwarfed by a sharp rise between 1919-1934, which was followed by a period of cooling.

In a follow-up piece, he argues the overall flatline may indicate that natural forces (including in a cooling direction) have a greater impact on global temperatures than human ones, based on his independent analysis over the last half decade.

Sources: NASA, NOAA, Jame Hansen [note]



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This article is over a month old, voting and posting comments is disabled

By Captain Orgazmo on 1/17/2013 7:35:54 PM , Rating: 2
You can lay out the obvious over and over, but people like to imagine crises that don't exist. Makes 'em feel special, like something important is happening. First world problems, as they say.

The most important point you make is about the politics. Clearly, these discussions are entirely political. They were from the start, when Margaret Thatcher used the dubious theory of CO2 causing runaway global warming as a weapon against the striking coal miners in Britain. Coal production was virtually stopped, and the unions couldn't strike once their jobs were gone.

The whole bunch of BS was almost forgotten about (although I remember hearing some crap about the greenhouse effect and CO2 in school in the early 90s - same teacher who claimed the moon had no gravity), until Maurice Strong (former CEO of the hated state entity Petro-Canada who moved to Beijing) realized that the CO2 theory could be used as a weapon against the capitalist west, to the benefit of his new allies, the Chinese Communists.

He got the UN on board, and had most western nations sign the Kyoto Accord. Of course none of the nations that signed even came remotely close to their promised goals of CO2 reduction, and surprise surprise, I don't see Kevin Costner with gills swimming down the street.

Al Gore came in afterwards to make a buck, and ended up with a few hundred million more. In the process his ridiculously exaggerated claims (proven in court in Britain to be propaganda), scared the piss out of millions of dupes, who now call you names and say you are a "denier" for attempting to engage in a civilized discussion of scientific study.


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