Sources: IDF [Twitter], al-Qassam [Twitter], Janes, AP/YouTube [Interceptor hit footage]
quote: "The radar detects a rocket launch and passes information regarding its path to the control center, which calculates the predicted point of impact. If this location justifies an interception, a missile is fired to intercept the rocket.
quote: In 2011, three years after the first field tests, the system was boasting a 70 percent interception rate.
quote: The answer has come this last week, as the system recorded a "real world" success rate of around 35 percent. Roughly 1 in 3 missiles shot at Israel was successfully intercepted.
quote: So the system chooses not to intercept every missile?
quote: 35% of all missiles fired are shot down. Assuming the 70% rate listed above, the system would need to be firing interceptors at 50% of all fired missiles to achieve this rate. If anything this seems to suggest that the system is operating at or beyond the levels it was during testing. Other sources seem to indicate that a very large percentage of these missiles are falling harmlessly in unpopulated areas, suggesting that interception isn't even necessary in the vast majority of launches.Correct me if I am wrong, but this sounds like a huge success.
quote: If the interceptors have a 35% success rate and only 500 were fired, then only 175 enemy missiles would have been shot down.So just how many interceptors were fired? (as 500 is unlikely to be the right number) Or rather, how many enemy missiles have been aimed at dust (thus not needed to be intercepted)?
quote: 35% is the absolute minimum success rate assuming the launchers decided that ALL rockets were an immediate threat to the populace.
quote: Iron Dome intentionally ignores some rockets. You can't make claims like 35% until you know the number of rockets the system chose to engage as well as the total number of rockets. 70% might very well be closer to the correct value.Look at it another way. If they reprogrammed the system to engage every rocket it saw, and not ignore any, what would be the number of rockets intercepted? That doesn't even factor in the possibility of the system being overwhelmed because it is no longer carefully choosing its targets, but even so, the number of interceptions would skyrocket (pun intended).