Print 16 comment(s) - last by Argon18.. on Nov 1 at 4:20 PM

Is the end nigh for x86?

With Intel Corp. (INTC) thrashing its foes in processes and die shrinks, it might be premature to say that the end of the x86 complex instruction set computer (CISC) architecture is drawing near.  But it's equally hard to deny that ARM Holdings plc's (LON:ARM) ubiquitous licensed reduced instruction set computer (RISC) architecture is today drawing neck-and-neck with x86.

I. AMD to Build ARM Processing Cores

Each architecture is king of its own market; x86 rules the PC world, ARM rules the world of mobile chips.

But this week marked a key shift in the balance of power, with Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) -- the other major maker of x86 PC CPUs -- announcing it would be rolling out 64-bit ARM processors.

The news that AMD was contemplating ARM wasn't exactly new.  AMD first let leak that it was licensing the ARM instruction set last year.  But at the time it was unclear whether AMD was simply going to leverage ARM for a power-sipping coprocessor or go full-out with a discrete ARM central processing unit.

AMD Opteron
AMD will release 64-bit Opteron chips in 2014. [Image Source: AMD]

The company resoundingly answered that question this week.

In a press release the company writes:

In a bold strategic move, AMD will design 64-bit ARM® technology-based processors in addition to its x86 processors for multiple markets, starting with cloud and data center servers. AMD’s first ARM technology-based processor will be a highly-integrated, 64-bit multicore System-on-a-Chip (SoC) optimized for the dense, energy-efficient servers that now dominate the largest data centers and power the modern computing experience. The first ARM technology-based AMD Opteron™ processor is targeted for production in 2014 and will integrate the AMD SeaMicro Freedom™ supercompute fabric, the industry’s premier high-performance fabric.

The news is significant particularly in its language.  By "multiple markets" AMD is making it clear that while this is not a consumer PC chip announcement, it is not ruling out a transition to ARM in the future.

II. ARM Renaissance is Dawning 

The announcement comes at an important time for ARM's entrance into the server and personal computer market.  Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is launching Windows Server 2012, the first Windows enterprise operating system to offer ARM core support.  Both Hewlett-Packard Comp. (HPQ) and Dell, Inc. (DELL) -- two of the world's top three server vendors -- have major ARM-based offerings in the pipeline.  Both OEMs praised AMD's ARM announcement.

"In order to handle evolving workloads, business demands and the information explosion, enterprises are looking for flexible compute solutions that drive optimal performance and reduced energy consumption," said Paul Santeler, vice president and general manager, Hyperscale Business Unit, Industry Standard Servers and Software at HP "As part of HP's Pathfinder Program, AMD and HP are continuing their decade-long relationship to innovate power-efficient computing with the development of a rich ecosystem of highly energy-efficient, dense server technology."
Calxeda dense server
HP is currently cooking up low-power ARM servers. [Image Source: HP]

Jimmy Pike, vice president and senior fellow of the Dell Data Center Solutions group adds, "With its planned 64-bit ARM solutions, AMD brings the experience of a proven enterprise CPU provider to the ARM ecosystem.  ARM has the promise of being a serious player in areas like web front-end servers and as a worker node in a Hadoop environment.  AMD's opportunity is to deliver serious value in performance-per-dollar and performance-per watt-where low-power server platforms running massively scale out workloads can shine. The availability of 64-bit ARM solutions is an essential milestone needed to accelerate enterprise adoption of this technology."

III. Intel: It's Getting Lonely Around Here

In a way a transition to ARM makes more sense for AMD.  With the recent Piledriver release AMD has further targeted heavily multi-threaded/multi-core users (e.g. cloud serving/virtualization services).  Such loads don't typically require as powerful a discrete processing core, making them the perfect target for ARM cores.  And given AMD's die shrink lag behind Intel its current power performance is pretty poor on a per-chip basis (although competitive on a per-performance basis in heavily threaded applications); the power-efficient ARM base could be just what the doctor ordered.

Soon, Intel may be the only x86 chipmaker. [Image Source: Reuters]

It might be too soon to call this the death knell of x86, but the news from AMD could mean "and then there was one."

If Intel, in the long term, becomes the sole x86 vendor, it will have a tremendous load on its shoulders.  Intel is an incredibly competitive company.  But the question is whether it can alone fight an entire army of competitors unanimous in support of an alternative.

Source: AMD

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RE: The Past is catching up with Intel.
By dark matter on 10/30/2012 1:21:05 PM , Rating: 0
Case in point.

The ARM SOC on my phone is plenty fast enough to allow me to multitask, play games, watch videos, browse the web, email, all in HD, and is responsive enough.

There is not much call for X86 hot chips any longer.

If you don't believe me, you're in a niche market and I understand why you don't believe. I am as well. But I'm more of a pragmatist and have no brand loyality.

I wouldn't buy a ford if GM has a better vehicle that suits the job more out of loyality for ford.

RE: The Past is catching up with Intel.
By someguy123 on 10/30/2012 2:07:51 PM , Rating: 2
Doesn't really reflect actual revenue, though. Intel is profiting the same as ever. Their atom chips are also comparable in performance/draw these days. Chip in the last intel phone was about as fast as the krait per core, and that was 32nm without finfet. Rather than x86 hit to the die, affordability is whats likely going to hurt them compared to ARM. Smaller companies may need to go to intel/amd for chips but anyone that can afford to will license ARM and produce their own considering ARM licenses hardly cost anything.

RE: The Past is catching up with Intel.
By Argon18 on 10/30/12, Rating: 0
By nafhan on 10/30/2012 4:26:33 PM , Rating: 3
It's taken Intel a while, but they are there. Check out some reviews of the Razr i if you need any convincing. It actually has slightly better battery life and slightly better performance than the Razr M (two phones that are essentially identical other than the chipsets used).

By someguy123 on 10/30/2012 4:41:52 PM , Rating: 2
I never said it was competitive, I said it was comparable. their z atom chips are comparable to krait per core, but obviously there are multicore kraits vs currently single core SoC atom. Guy above gave a good example with the Razr I. Pretty good midrange phone overall while keeping x86 on there. Get it shrunk down to 22nm with finfet like ivy and things get interesting.

"And boy have we patented it!" -- Steve Jobs, Macworld 2007

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