Analyst: Don't Expect RIM's BB10 Until March 2013
October 9, 2012 3:00 PM
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Analysts hoped RIM would launch the platform in January; still no OFFICIAL word, yet
It sounds like it could be more bad news for a familiar struggling player in the smartphone industry -- but take this one with a grain of salt.
Jefferies analyst Peter Misek is
back to his old ways
, spreading a tale of gloom and doom regarding Research in Motion, Ltd. (
Regarding RIM's ambiguous "Q1 2013" launch of its
upcoming BlackBerry 10 (BB10)
smartphone operating system and new device lineup, he warns, "We had hoped for a January launch but now see a March launch as more likely. Also, our checks point to a tough November quarter, with replenishment rates decreasing as channel partners are cautious on holding RIM inventory. We think the business uncertainty means parties are unlikely to acquire or license from RIM until BB10 launches."
He adds, "We still believe a third ecosystem [in addition to iOS and Android] will emerge, but the probability of BB10 filling the role is wholly dependent on whether RIM can convince Samsung, Huawei, and ZTE to license. Baidu, Huawei, and others are pursuing their own operating systems. We also see Win 8 as somewhat of a threat but conflicting reviews, less-than-stellar developer feedback, and a desire by Microsoft to make hardware directly make Win 8."
So far if RIM has a
up its sleeve, it hasn't announced it yet. Thus far all of the RIM's
announced BB10 devices
have been first-party designs, the company's traditional bread and butter.
An analyst claims the RIMdenberg won't be delivering BB10 devices as early as anticipated.
[Image Source: Jason Mick/DailyTech LLC]
Of course Mr. Misek had
All Things Digital
, "It’s going to be terrible with a scoop of worse for August."
Instead RIM handily beat Mr. Misek's financial prediction. The fiscal surprise came thanks to strong cost cutting, and was in spite of the fact that RIM largely met Mr. Misek's gloomy prediction on the unit sales front.
The facts are simple -- RIM has delayed BB10 by over a year so far. And its volumes lay decimated at a fraction of their former glory.
However, it's worth taking Mr. Misek and other analysts' "inside" information with a bit of skepticism, until the same news comes straight from horse's mouth (which it oft does). After all, those same aforementioned dire metrics have certain parties greedily eyeing
a fire sale purchase
of the embattled phonemaker, and every bit of extra bad news -- true or not -- likely sweetens the price.
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RE: We dont...
10/9/2012 4:25:47 PM
I don't.. They've got the cash to make it until March, but they might get swallowed up for patents and assets before then.
And their launch has to go pretty well, too, or they're done. They don't have the money to absorb a bad launch..
Big further delays? Game over. Stock price fall too low to make it an easy take-over? Game over. Mediocre BB10 launch? Game over.
I liked them too, but their tombstone could read "Died of product delays."
RE: We dont...
10/9/2012 4:29:25 PM
"And their launch has to go pretty well, too, or they're done. They don't have the money to absorb a bad launch.."
RIM hasnt executed anything well in the past 5 years (at least). Everything they do is marred with errors, mis-steps and piss poor decision making, topped off with massive denial.
QNX/BB10 is a good base OS, alot of potential, but RIM will just make a mess of it.
RE: We dont...
10/9/2012 9:12:49 PM
Agreed. Since, from a cash stand-point, their next launch is do-or-die, even if they DID execute well I don't know that there's enough consumer demand for BB10 to give them what they need. Dark days, but at least it's (hopefully) motivating for the people that haven't jumped ship yet.
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