IEEE Editor Blasts $7B USD Laser Fusion Project as "Mother of All Boondoggles"
October 9, 2012 11:29 AM
comment(s) - last by
National lab project is unlikely to produce results and is being misrepresented, allegedly
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
(LLNL) -- located on the grounds of the
University of California, Berkley
(UC Berkley) -- is the center of a growing controversy regarding a $7B USD
laser fusion project
, dubbed the "National Ignition Facility" (NIF).
I. LLNL Says Project is Near Fusion, IEEE Editor Says "No Way"
The project -- launched 15 years ago in 1997 -- has yet to achieve "ignition"; the point at which the laser-confined fusion produces more energy than it consumes. And it carries a sticker price of $290M+ USD per year in operating costs.
But those issues didn't stop LLNL from releasing a cheerful press release,
Fifteen years of work by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's National Ignition Facility (NIF) team paid off on July 5 with a historic record-breaking laser shot. The NIF laser system of 192 beams delivered more than 500 trillion watts (terawatts or TW) of peak power and 1.85 megajoules (MJ) of ultraviolet laser light to its target. Five hundred terawatts is 1,000 times more power than the United States uses at any instant in time, and 1.85 megajoules of energy is about 100 times what any other laser regularly produces today.
The release was hardly coincidental. It came just months ago, in hopes of swaying Congress, which is presently deciding whether to sustain funding for the troubled project.
Pre-amplifiers are pictured pumping up the power to the LLNL's record-setting laser. But is all that power being wasted on pipe dreams? [Image Source: LLNL]
editor Bill Sweet, a veteran of India's nuclear power development project, most physicists view laser-contained (aka. "inertial confinement") fusion ignition as a pipe dream. He argues that most agree that
magnetic confinement fusion
is far more likely to be realized, though still a difficult problem.
William Broad, chief nuclear issues reporter for
The New York Times
, agrees. He
National Nuclear Security Administration
's project overseer, Donald L. Cook, has serious concerns. He quotes Mr. Cook as saying, that even with the latest power milestone considered, the project simply "has not worked", and that the NNSA is "going to settle into a serious investigation" of the NIF's sliding ignition deadline.
II. Protecting the Nuclear Stockpile? Maybe Not...
Mr. Sweet also takes issue with LLNL's other justification for the project -- that it provides a test-bed to simulate
nuclear weapons performance
, a key national security goal.
LLNL comments, "[The NIF] is the only facility with the potential to duplicate the actual phenomena that occur in the heart of a modern nuclear device -- a goal that is critical to sustaining confidence that a return to underground nuclear testing remains unnecessary."
But Mr. Sweet counters, "Richard Garwin, for decades the most highly regarded independent specialist on nuclear weaponry in the United States, told IEEE Spectrum six years ago that it would be 'a mistake to assume that NIF experiments are going to be directly relevant to weapons testing. The temperatures in the NIF chamber are much lower than they are in actual nuclear weapons, and the amounts of material being tested are much smaller.'"
He adds, "For decades the joke about magnetic confinement fusion--much the more plausible approach to harnessing the energy of the sun--is that the technology is always 20 years away. So when will inertial confinement fusion be delivering commercial electricity? That one is easy. Never."
Congress is debating whether to scrap the NIF. [Image Source: LLNL]
It sounds like there's some serious credibility question regarding the project's security and energy claims. That said, there might be some merit to the project, even if Mr. Sweet is at least partially right.
UC Berkley astronomy
Professor Dr. Raymond Jeanloz
, comments, "Already the most incredibly tightly controlled and most energetic laser in the world, it is remarkable that NIF has achieved the 500 TW milestone - quite a significant achievement. This breakthrough will give us incredible new opportunities in studying materials at extreme conditions."
Indeed, from a
pure science perspective
, the device is a pretty impressive accomplishment, even if it turns out its fusion goals are indeed pipe dreams. It could indeed yield some novel materials research, if it escapes this round of funding reviews. Ultimately the issue appears not so much that the super-laser lacks novelty, but rather that its critics argue that it is being misrepresented. For that reason, Mr. Sweet infers, the NIF is the "mother of all boondoggles".
The New York Times
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RE: I'm fine with this
10/10/2012 9:11:39 AM
If by growth you mean cheap unsustainable loans flowing to an oversaturated property market, then by all means follow Ireland's example.
Like Spain, most of their recent economic growth was building far too much, on the back of loans that then became toxic, resulting in bankruptcies and writedowns.
Like many other countries, Ireland had a debt-fuelled purple patch until the GFC, and now, like everyone else, they are actually doing pretty badly.
RE: I'm fine with this
10/10/2012 5:27:59 PM
Ireland had a housing bust, yes, but it has a lot of strong fundamentals. Net exports seem to be doing better, and it shows flickers of life but, IMO, due to its understandably powerful links to the Euro-zone it's getting dragged down by that crisis that just refuses to die.
They were also powerfully hurt by bailing out their banks; would've been FAR better for Ireland to let them fail, but Germany wouldn't of stood for it; word has always been that it'd of caused Deutche Bank to fail, so pressed Ireland to jump on its own sword.
Regardless, there's no denying that in international rankings Ireland is extremely competitive. It's closest comparison would be Spain, which had the next-largest housing boom and bust, and Irelands unemployment is about 11% points lower and GDP bouncing between flat to slow growth. Can try to spin it however you like, but facts are facts.
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