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  (Source: climatepedia.org)
Emissions up until this point have ensured an irreversible sea-level rise of 1.1 meters by the year 3000

A new study has found that it's too late to reverse the effects that greenhouse gas emissions will have on sea levels over the next thousand years -- but we could lessen the impact of these effects if proper changes are made. 

According to research by scientists at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Manchester Metropolitan University and the Université catholique de Louvain, greenhouse gas emissions produced up to this point has ensured an irreversible sea-level rise of 1.1 meters by the year 3000. This number could increase, they warn, if no action is taken to reduce these levels -- and the effects could extend into thousands of years into the future.  

The research team came to this conclusion by modeling sea-level changes over thousands of years while including all of our planet's ice sheets and warming of the oceans into its projections. This includes glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The team said this has never been done before. 

Using a climate modeling system called LOVECLIM, the team analyzed several scenarios over the next thousand years. It found that there will be a sea-level rise of at least 1.1 meters by the year 3000, but if other certain emissions scenarios were followed, it could increase to 2.1, 4.1 or even 6.8 meters. 

The study also found that the Greenland ice sheet was the cause of over half of the sea-level rises while thermal expansion of the ocean came in second place and glaciers/ice came in third. 

"Ice sheets are very slow components in the climate system; they respond on time scales of thousands of years," said Professor Philippe Huybrechts, co-author of the study. "Together with the long lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this inertia is the real poison on the climate system; anything we do now that changes the forcing in the climate system will necessarily have long consequences for the ice sheets and sea level.

"Ultimately, the current polar ice sheets store about 65 metres of equivalent sea level and if climatic warming will be severe and long-lasting, all ice will eventually melt. Mankind should limit the concentration of greenhouse gases at the lowest possible level as soon as possible. The only realistic option is a drastic reduction of the emissions. The lower the ultimate warming will be, the less severe the ultimate consequences will be." 

This study was published in Environmental Research Letters

Source: Science Daily



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RE: Your opinion is irrelevant
By ironargonaut on 10/3/2012 5:15:33 PM , Rating: 2
The old appeal to authority arguement. How trite.

Let's see, I was twenty and my old girlfriend was describing the burn she got from a 2M nitric acid spill in the chemlab. She went to the campus doctor. They ran it under water for 15mins, bandaged it and sent her home. She described to me how it was still spreading. I told her to ignore that doctor because something was wrong if days later it was causing problems. I told her to get her parents to take her to a burn specialist in the big city. She took my advice and days after the burn they immediately ran her hand under water for FOUR hrs.

If she had not sought advice from this non-doctor she may suffered longer and lost more use of her fingers. According to you, I was "not qualified to have an opinion".

I've had emergency room nurses rolling their eyes at me when I told them I was sure my niece was bleeding internally. The look of shock on their smug faces when the catheder came out full of blood was enlightening. According to you because I am not a doctor I should have waited in the waiting room like a good sheep instead blowing by the reception desk. I should have patiently waited instead of asking three times to get someone to look at her.

Perhaps my mom shouldn't have listened to the Dr's when they said my brother with spinal bifada would never walk. I guess we shouldn't have taught him. He walks and runs just fine today.

Your analogy is beyond flawed. However, it does show that your opinion is irrelevant and worthless. If my doctor can't figure out how to fix something as simple as my frickin toilet, why the hell would I think he could figure out my internal plumbing which is much more complicated. Let's see heart and toilet both use fluid dynamics, and valves.

Your 97% number is BS and has been shown to be such many times over.

So, how about if I am a qualified scientist(wait a second what exactly is the qualification to be labeled a climate scientist? what degree do I need?) who is peer reviewed in a field where me and my peers make sure we review and ok each others work? How about a field in which my peers and I actively attempt to block out others who may disagree from getting published, and try to punish magazines that publish dissenting opinions, is that ok?

"Scientists" don't have some magically power that endows only them with knowledge or basic logic in a field of study. If they did wouldn't be recalling papers and/or conclusions after smart non-magically empowered people like Steve McIntyre point out that their hockey stick generating models make hockey sticks no matter what garbage data is put in.


RE: Your opinion is irrelevant
By Motoman on 10/3/2012 5:19:58 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
The old appeal to authority arguement. How trite.


You lost right there.

Don't try to assign that to actual scientists participating in peer-reviewed research. That's authority gained by actual work, resulting in actual expertise.

You clearly missed my analogy with the heart surgeon and the plumber.

If you think you're having a heart attack, are you going to call a doctor, or will the mechanic at the gas station nearby work for you?

After all, looking to the doctor is just an "appeal to authority." How trite.

Here's your sign.

Your anecdata is irrelevant. One instance of what may or may not have been bad advice from one doctor, vs. the culmination of decades of research by a globe-full of researchers.

Get a grip.


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