Study: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Have Caused Irreversible Effects on Sea-Level Rise
October 2, 2012 7:47 PM
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Emissions up until this point have ensured an irreversible sea-level rise of 1.1 meters by the year 3000
A new study has found that it's too late to reverse the
effects that greenhouse gas emissions will have
on sea levels over the next thousand years -- but we could lessen the impact of these effects if proper changes are made.
According to research by scientists at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Manchester Metropolitan University and the Universit
é catholique de Louvain, greenhouse gas emissions produced up to this point has ensured an irreversible sea-level rise of 1.1 meters by the year 3000. This number could increase, they warn, if no action is taken to reduce these levels -- and the effects could extend into thousands of years into the future.
The research team came to this conclusion by modeling sea-level changes over thousands of years while including all of our planet's ice sheets and warming of the oceans into its projections. This includes glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The team said this has never been done before.
Using a climate modeling system called LOVECLIM, the team analyzed several scenarios over the next thousand years. It found that there will be a sea-level rise of at least 1.1 meters by the year 3000, but if other certain emissions scenarios were followed, it could increase to 2.1, 4.1 or even 6.8 meters.
The study also found that the Greenland ice sheet was the cause of over half of the sea-level rises while thermal expansion of the ocean came in second place and glaciers/ice came in third.
"Ice sheets are very slow components in the climate system; they respond on time scales of thousands of years," said Professor Philippe Huybrechts, co-author of the study. "Together with the
long lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
, this inertia is the real poison on the climate system; anything we do now that changes the forcing in the climate system will necessarily have long consequences for the ice sheets and sea level.
"Ultimately, the current polar ice sheets store about 65 metres of equivalent sea level and if climatic warming will be severe and long-lasting, all ice will eventually melt. Mankind should limit the concentration of greenhouse gases at the lowest possible level as soon as possible. The only realistic option is a drastic reduction of the emissions. The lower the ultimate warming will be, the less severe the ultimate consequences will be."
This study was published in
Environmental Research Letters
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RE: Garbage In Garbage Out
10/3/2012 5:11:31 PM
thats if another ice age starts soon, we are still heating by their data so its going to take a shift towards being cooler first. If the Ice starts coming we won't be around for it for sure.
RE: Garbage In Garbage Out
10/3/2012 6:27:10 PM
As I have pointed out previously, the Pleistocene ice age is the one that we are currently experiencing. This is just a short warm cycle during that ice age and is periodic and evidenced by core data.
THE ICE AGE HAS NOT ENDED, IGNORAMUS.
GOOGLE CLIMATIC OPTIMUM.
Please. This is just sad.
You know how the continental shelf, where the coastal waters are all fairly shallow and go out several miles before dropping off? Well those are lowlands during glacial periods. And the point where they drop off will be the new coastline during a glacial period.
Please. Just check Wikipedia. Expand your knowledge. We are 12,000 years into the Holocene interglacial period. The previous one lasted 15 odd thousand years.
Check it out.
RE: Garbage In Garbage Out
10/4/2012 10:11:35 AM
good job, if your part of the ice age consensus group, useless if your part of the global warming group, pointless if your trying to argue a point. whats sad is the fact you spent all this time trying to out science an unscientific discussion, take your facts and write a paper you make me sleepy.
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