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  (Source: climatepedia.org)
Emissions up until this point have ensured an irreversible sea-level rise of 1.1 meters by the year 3000

A new study has found that it's too late to reverse the effects that greenhouse gas emissions will have on sea levels over the next thousand years -- but we could lessen the impact of these effects if proper changes are made. 

According to research by scientists at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Manchester Metropolitan University and the Université catholique de Louvain, greenhouse gas emissions produced up to this point has ensured an irreversible sea-level rise of 1.1 meters by the year 3000. This number could increase, they warn, if no action is taken to reduce these levels -- and the effects could extend into thousands of years into the future.  

The research team came to this conclusion by modeling sea-level changes over thousands of years while including all of our planet's ice sheets and warming of the oceans into its projections. This includes glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The team said this has never been done before. 

Using a climate modeling system called LOVECLIM, the team analyzed several scenarios over the next thousand years. It found that there will be a sea-level rise of at least 1.1 meters by the year 3000, but if other certain emissions scenarios were followed, it could increase to 2.1, 4.1 or even 6.8 meters. 

The study also found that the Greenland ice sheet was the cause of over half of the sea-level rises while thermal expansion of the ocean came in second place and glaciers/ice came in third. 

"Ice sheets are very slow components in the climate system; they respond on time scales of thousands of years," said Professor Philippe Huybrechts, co-author of the study. "Together with the long lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this inertia is the real poison on the climate system; anything we do now that changes the forcing in the climate system will necessarily have long consequences for the ice sheets and sea level.

"Ultimately, the current polar ice sheets store about 65 metres of equivalent sea level and if climatic warming will be severe and long-lasting, all ice will eventually melt. Mankind should limit the concentration of greenhouse gases at the lowest possible level as soon as possible. The only realistic option is a drastic reduction of the emissions. The lower the ultimate warming will be, the less severe the ultimate consequences will be." 

This study was published in Environmental Research Letters

Source: Science Daily



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RE: This is good news
By Cluebat on 10/3/2012 9:03:12 AM , Rating: 2
The Pliestocene ice age didn't end 10,000 years ago. We entered an interglacial period (the Holocene). It was actually closer to 12,000 years ago that the Wisconsonian Glacial period ended and the Holocene began.

The previous interglacial period (the Eemian) lasted ~15,000 years. During the Pliestocene the interglacial periods have been getting shorter. We passed the climatic optimum about 3000 years ago. This signifies the beginning of the next glacial period.

Global warming advocates are ignoring the elephant in the room. When the ice sheets inevitably move in, they will displace millions of people. And the transition to cold is much faster than the transition to a warm period.

There will be chaos. Probably not in my lifetime, but soon.


RE: This is good news
By Denigrate on 10/3/2012 9:07:15 AM , Rating: 2
This reminds me of sports fans of crap teams who say "score board" if they win, then "History" if they don't, but only specific parts of recent history, excluding down recent years.


RE: This is good news
By FaaR on 10/3/2012 12:23:05 PM , Rating: 1
Speaking of ice sheets, arctic ice hit new record lows this summer, clearly signalling the beginning of a new glacial period!

Seriously now... Where do you people come from? Not a place where reason and logic is cherished, that's for sure.


RE: This is good news
By superflex on 10/3/2012 1:34:30 PM , Rating: 2
...and your degree in geology or climatology is from...


RE: This is good news
By ironargonaut on 10/3/2012 4:03:18 PM , Rating: 2
Antartic ice sheets reached a record high this summer.

Seriously... Where do you cherry pickers come from? Not a place where "global" actually means the whole earth, that's for sure.


RE: This is good news
By Cluebat on 10/3/2012 6:45:11 PM , Rating: 3
Moron.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interglacial
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovic_cycle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Co2_glacial_cycl...

We are in an ice age now. Core data proves this.

Last post. I give up. This is what public education has done to us.


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