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Emissions up until this point have ensured an irreversible sea-level rise of 1.1 meters by the year 3000

A new study has found that it's too late to reverse the effects that greenhouse gas emissions will have on sea levels over the next thousand years -- but we could lessen the impact of these effects if proper changes are made. 

According to research by scientists at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Manchester Metropolitan University and the Université catholique de Louvain, greenhouse gas emissions produced up to this point has ensured an irreversible sea-level rise of 1.1 meters by the year 3000. This number could increase, they warn, if no action is taken to reduce these levels -- and the effects could extend into thousands of years into the future.  

The research team came to this conclusion by modeling sea-level changes over thousands of years while including all of our planet's ice sheets and warming of the oceans into its projections. This includes glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The team said this has never been done before. 

Using a climate modeling system called LOVECLIM, the team analyzed several scenarios over the next thousand years. It found that there will be a sea-level rise of at least 1.1 meters by the year 3000, but if other certain emissions scenarios were followed, it could increase to 2.1, 4.1 or even 6.8 meters. 

The study also found that the Greenland ice sheet was the cause of over half of the sea-level rises while thermal expansion of the ocean came in second place and glaciers/ice came in third. 

"Ice sheets are very slow components in the climate system; they respond on time scales of thousands of years," said Professor Philippe Huybrechts, co-author of the study. "Together with the long lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this inertia is the real poison on the climate system; anything we do now that changes the forcing in the climate system will necessarily have long consequences for the ice sheets and sea level.

"Ultimately, the current polar ice sheets store about 65 metres of equivalent sea level and if climatic warming will be severe and long-lasting, all ice will eventually melt. Mankind should limit the concentration of greenhouse gases at the lowest possible level as soon as possible. The only realistic option is a drastic reduction of the emissions. The lower the ultimate warming will be, the less severe the ultimate consequences will be." 

This study was published in Environmental Research Letters

Source: Science Daily

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RE: Garbage In Garbage Out
By PaFromFL on 10/3/2012 8:44:24 AM , Rating: 2
Scientists all agree that if you find that the sky is not falling, you lose funding. If the sky is falling in a manner that could increase government power and tax revenue, your funding increases by orders of magnitude. Climatology would be a tiny scientific backwater without all the fear mongering.

Change is not always bad. Between Greenland and Antarctica, plenty of real estate will become available, even with rising sea levels. Humans and other hardy species will adapt, like they always have. Where is the research money to explore the opportunities the 10,000 year warming trend will offer?

RE: Garbage In Garbage Out
By dgingerich on 10/3/2012 11:01:56 AM , Rating: 2
Change is not always bad. Between Greenland and Antarctica, plenty of real estate will become available, even with rising sea levels.

Good point. I have a very Lex Luthor style idea in my head: buy up real estate in Antarctica or even just take it by squatters'/homestead rights, pump out tons of CO2, allow the ice to melt, and voila! Tons of new farmland while everyone else's is heating up and going dry. :) The growing season should be awesome there with half the year in perpetual sunlight.

hehe, just kidding. I don't believe CO2 is the cause of the end of the world any more than Mitt Romney does. That line just sounded like a great setup. I couldn't leave it hanging.

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