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Could the proposed standards lead to automakers vacating smaller platforms?

The proposed CAFE standards that have been looming all year will force some major changes on the automotive market. The government says that the much more stringent fuel economy standard will save consumers at the pump and reduce the national need for foreign oil. The auto industry has said that the cost of meeting the standard would increase the cost of new vehicles and could result in lost jobs.
According to a new study published by the University of Michigan, the CAFE standards will make cars larger, not smaller. The study indicates that there is a loophole in the economy standards that the automakers could exploit.
"For just about all the scenarios, the car got bigger,” said Steven Skerlos, an associate professor at U-M Department of Mechanical Engineering. “What you can model in a computer is different from reality, but based on this research we expect it to happen."
The loophole is that the formula used for determining miles per gallons required under the new standard uses the vehicles footprint (multiplying the wheelbase by track width). This was done to give larger vehicles less stringent economy standards to follow. In a nutshell, the formula favors larger vehicles and those vehicles may be less costly since they wouldn't have to use as much technology for fuel gains. 
Therefore, automakers may design new vehicles to be larger in an effort to target the lower economy standards. The study also claims that not only would the automakers considering redesigning a vehicle to go for the lower economy limits undermine the CAFE standard goals, but it would also create more pollution
"This study illustrates that there may be a substantial financial incentive to produce larger vehicles, and that it can undermine the goals of the policy," said Kate Whitefoot, who conducted the research as a U-M design science doctoral student and is now a senior program officer at the National Academy of Engineering.

Source: AutoNews

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This was obvious
By Colin1497 on 12/14/2011 2:43:41 PM , Rating: 2
When I first read about the new CAFE standards over a year ago, this was so obvious that I'd expect even a government bureaucrat to be able to figure out. They listed the cars furthest from their requirements and the Porsche 911 was at the top of the list, not because it was so inefficient (I get about 25mpg) but because it's so small. The target was really high for the 911, like 60 or 70 mpg. OOPS!

The government would rather that I go buy a large vehicle with worse mileage than continue to drive my small one that gets similar mileage to the average car. My prediction was that wheel bases and tracks would increase. The new 911? Larger wheel base and track...

RE: This was obvious
By Spuke on 12/14/2011 2:59:57 PM , Rating: 2
My prediction was that wheel bases and tracks would increase. The new 911? Larger wheel base and track...
I was wondering why they went that route.

RE: This was obvious
By lagomorpha on 12/15/2011 2:20:39 AM , Rating: 2
It is really bizarre that they use size rather than number of passengers. a 4 passenger BMW X6 should be the worst possible thing but comes out decently, and a 6 passenger mazda5 should do better if they didnt use the insane system they do. Making the seats wider should not improve the cafe rating. Obviously the system was designed by obese people.

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