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Microsoft's fast failures in the mobile space have bred skepticism, but call me a believer in Windows 8

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has had a rocky go in the tablet market.  It almost beat Apple, Inc. (AAPL) to market with its slick Courier "design book" dual-tablet, but instead opted for a wait and see process that cost it millions, if not billions in sales.  But I firmly believe that it will succeed in the tablet area, when it finally makes a serious entry next year.

Microsoft: A Brief History of Its Mobile Woes

First a brief history lesson on what has gone wrong when it comes to Microsoft and mobile...

Everything that could go wrong in the tablets market for Microsoft did go wrong.  Intel Corp. (INTCfailed to deliver on its ambitious promises, leaving Microsoft without viable mobile CPUs.  Meanwhile, Apple's tablet sales grew much faster than anyone expected, putting Microsoft far behind.  

Meanwhile, since it gained a promising quarter of the fledgling smartphone market with its promising Windows Mobile operating system back in the 2004, it's been all downhill for Microsoft's mobile efforts.  Windows Mobile pulled a Symbian and overstayed its welcomebleeding market shareKin flunked and was promptly buried; and the most promising of all, Windows Phone, has seen slow sales due to poor marketing and partnership efforts from Microsoft which sadly held back its surprisingly competitive OS from public visibility.

Tablets have been such a hit for Apple that some people are already referring to the next phase of computing as "the post-PC era"; a phrase that implies that Windows PCs will be relegated to secondary status while tablets and smartphones will reign triumphant.  Such claims are of course premature and highly speculative, but they're very damaging to Microsoft in that they do have some shred of truth -- PC growth is slowing at a time tablet growth is surging.

Tablet sales are expected to hit 70 million this year, while Gartner, Inc.'s (IT) latest sales prediction is that they will "continue to experience strong growth through to the end of 2015 when sales are forecast to reach 326.3 million units."  

Tablet sales
Tablet sales indicate we're indeed on the verge of a "post-PC era". [Image Source: Bloomberg]

And according to an eWeek report, Gartner VP David Willis stated, "By 2016, more than 900 million tablets will be in the hands of users."

With total predicted PC shipments at 385 million for 2011, that means that tablets may be the most used type of big-screen computing device, exceeding sales of laptops and desktops.  In other words, it's not the post-PC era yet, but top experts are convinced that users are headed in that direction.

But if it’s product or perish for Microsoft in this "post-PC" era we're entering, Microsoft is finally looking well prepared.  With Windows 8, everything is about to change on the mobile front for Microsoft.  You might not believe it, but Windows 8 tablets will be a hit.  After trying to explain this distinction to one last Apple die-hard I decide to put this in article form.

Note, I include opinions of a DailyTech reader to provide some extra perspective on why this platform is promising.

Why is Windows 8 a game changer for the tablet market?  Here's why:

The CPU 

Windows with ARM
A peek at Metro UI from IDF 2011. [(c) DailyTech/Jason Mick]

People have long wanted a Windows tablet, but reliance on Intel's sluggish mobile team has stunted that possibility. Now it's a level playing field, with Windows 8 fully ready for ARM.  And of course, support for Intel is still there as well, in case Intel finally catches up in the mobile sector with its promising process technologies like 3D FINFET.

An Important Note:
There's much talk about incompatibility of x86 apps on ARM Windows 8.  There some truth to these reports, but to the casual reader they can be somewhat misleading.  Microsoft has been relatively clear on this issue -- you won't just be able to pop in a disc and install an x86 app.  You'll have to obtain a new copy.

Most users get the majority of their programs from the internet anyways when they buy a new PC or mobile device, so this isn't a big deal.  It just puts pressure on Windows app makers to recompile their code to be ARM compatible.

ARM Windows 8 on laptops/tablets should use pretty much the same API interface, by definition as x86 Windows 8 on tablets/laptops/notebooks.  While the API may change slightly for the tablet version, the take home message is that most of the key system calls will still work the same way in your source code.

Barring some very deep firmware level interface apps, you should be able to take your legacy code and recompile it for ARM.  As ARM penetrates the laptop space, we should see a big effort by computer software makers to recompile their top products for ARM.  This will in term be a boon to ARM tablets as they will also gain access to these recompiled programs.

The lone area where this could be a hinderance is with paid apps.  While much of the apps we enjoy today in Windows (e.g. Chrome, DivX, FoxIt Reader, uTorrent, PeaZip, Notepad++, Open Office, etc.) are completely free, others (e.g. Photoshop, Microsoft Office) are not.  This situation is particularly true when it comes to PC games.

Of course paid apps will likely compile at least much of their offerings for ARM, but it remains to be seen whether they offer courtesy replacements to users' discs, or some sort of discount program for those who legally purchased x86 software and now want to make the switch.

So the biggest unknown is whether people will have to "repay" for paid apps.  Is this a dealbreaker?  Not really, considering you'd have to "repay" in iOS or Android too.  And it's an issue that doesn't really apply to freeware, which comprises much of what makes Windows great.

A different opinion from a reader "Da W", who agrees with me on Windows 8 tablets selling well, but disagrees about the CPU:


I'm not sure ARM will catch on. By 2012 we will have ultra low power Ivy Bridge that will certainly fit a tablet power envelope and it seems Dual-core @ 2GHZ bobcat with Radeon 7000 series GPU on AMD side, that should trounce tegra 3 GPU power. Intel's offering will certainly be pricier, but having x86 compatibility to run you countless legacy utilities is an undeniable advantage. Plus any new app, including the 40000+ windows phone 7 apps ported to WinRT, should run on both ARM and x86.
So except if having a razor-thin tablet is really important, i don't think ARM will dominate the Windows 8 tablet market.


Google Inc. (GOOG) allows its hardware partners a wide variety of free reign in terms of capabilities.  This allows them lots of flexibility and greater consumer selection, but can hurt them in fragmentation.  Apple, on the other hand, has practiced a one-smartphone/one-tablet approach to market, which allows for consistent hardware and greater optimizations.

If Windows Phone and early reports are any clue, Microsoft will follow the middle path compared to its rivals' extremes.  It offers hardware partners a small amount of component flexibility but a large amount of flexibility in packaging, form factor, and buttons/ports.  This approach may not initially appear superior, but ultimately it seems an enlightened mobile approach.

The OS

One reason WHY people wanted a Win tablet was because they're used to the Windows operating system. The market may be shifting towards Unix-like operating systems, specifically OS X (BSD-derived) and Android (Linux), but overall people still use Windows PCs more than other operating system. There are over a 1 billion Windows PCs -- almost everyone knows the basics of how to use Windows no matter how much of a mobile enthusiast they are.

Remember too, that while Microsoft has failed in the mobile sector, in terms of consumer electronics, Windows laptops are today the world's most used personal computing products of any kind (laptops now outsell desktops).  In that sense Microsoft is the world's biggest mobile operating system maker.  While prior to Windows 8, its mobile OS was the same as vanilla desktop Windows, it's the focus on quality mobile performance that is a major part of why Windows 7 received such a warm reception and set sales records.  

So Microsoft knows what it's doing in terms of PC mobile operating systems, even if porting it to a tablet is a new experience.


Like Android, Windows 8 tablets should undercut Apple in price, while offering high level performance. This is the advantage of a third party OEM approach. Apple fans often point to the fact that design is outsourced then to Asian firms that they deride as "knockoffs" as a point of criticism for top-selling Android tablets.

There may be some truth in this, but even mighty Apple recruits Asian firms for the majority of its design. Companies like Samsung and Foxconn have as much to do with the iPad's hardware as Apple does.  So don't expect the fact that a Windows 8 tablet comes from Taiwanese or South Korean firms to necessarily equate to an inferior to design to Apple's -- Apple's tablets are coming from the same place.  Of course American firms like Hewlett-Packard Comp. (HPQ) and Dell, Inc. (DELL) will likely put out Windows 8 designs to, which like Apple will have a heavy Asian design influence.


Windows Phone has been a market failure thus far, but its allowed Microsoft to learn how to make a fast, fluid experience on a mobile device. WP7 has been held back by the lack of carrier hard selling due to lackluster carrier pushes on Microsoft's behalf. Tablets are more of a direct-sale party electronics market, so they should be able to benefit from WP7's optimization, while not suffering the same sales issues it did.


While not explicitly stated, chips like the Adreno 3xx by Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM) or Tegra 4 from NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) should allow for Xbox-quality graphics. Microsoft could have a better game library than the iPad in some ways, if it adopts an easy opt-in/auto-porting process for Xbox titles. Developers simply would dig up their sources, recompile for ARM, and use a minimal interface wrapper to translate any minor differences between Direct 3D Mobile 10 (the likely release graphics API for W8 tablets).

Microsoft hasn't mentioned this, but I do believe it could be Windows 8 tablets' secret weapon. As shown with the Asus Transformer Prime, wireless controllers and video could turn Windows 8 tablets into virtual Xboxes with full controller support and storage via SD slots.

Metro UI 

Metro UI
A peek at Metro UI from IDF 2011. [(c) DailyTech/Jason Mick]

Having played with Windows 8 (a real living tablet) I can say the Metro UI is looking SLICK. Having spent quality time with an iPad 2, I agree it beats Honeycomb in fluidity of animations. But Metro UI beats both and I think its look is very modern and Web 3.0. By contrast Apple's chiclet grid look is the same tired bag that's been around since Nokia Oyj.'s (HEL:NOK1V) early 2000s offerings, albeit with slicker animations and apps.


Having an iPad 2 or an Android on a corporate network is somewhat of a scary proposition given the fledgling state of IT administrative tools and the large flow of vulnerabilities.  In iOS and Android, vulnerabilities arise for different reason.  In iOS it is primarily due to Apple's refusal to allow jailbreaking in a controlled form.  In Google's case, the publication of its source code definitely has an impact, allowing for a slightly easier path to malicious exploits.  This isn't a knock on open source software security  -- the open support community has offered great progress on the security front.

With that said, no company has as much experience working with third-parties to allow powerful IT tools as Microsoft.  Those tools should be portable to Windows 8 tablets.  Further, no company has as much experience patching an ever-present onslaught of security flaws as Microsoft.  It hasn't always been good at this, but necessity is the mother of invention, and constant warfare has hardened Microsoft into a security lion much like constant war hardened the Macedonians, Romans, and the Mongolian Horde of millennia past.

Further Microsoft again benefits from an in-the-middle approach.  By allowing a fully customizable hardware interface (akin to jailbroken tablets) it can avoid enthusiasts unwittingly unleashing security holes in their quest for modification-allowing back-doors.  But its code is closed so malicious developers will have harder work ahead to find flaws.

Final Words

Let me conclude by saying I have no affiliation with Microsoft or ARM (who would benefit from the success of ARM Windows 8 tablets) and I do not hold eithers' stock.  In fact, I rarely even interact with Microsoft on a PR basis.  About all I can say is that I am a futurist who likes to examine market trends and hunt for the big picture.  And I'd say the big picture -- how I see it at least -- looks extremely hopeful for Microsoft in the tablet sector.

We shall see if I'm right, but I know a number of readers have expressed similar opinions in my past pieces on Windows 8 and tablets in general.  At least if I'm wrong, I'm in good company with some of my loyal readers.

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By spread on 12/1/2011 8:16:08 PM , Rating: 5
It's a market failure because it's unknown and not advertised enough. Great system though. More pleasant to use than iOS, yet performance is superior to Android but unfortunately not as many apps which is very important, why? Because the more you have the higher chance you can find something that fits your need that is of an acceptable quality.

By ICBM on 12/1/2011 8:54:38 PM , Rating: 5
I completely agree. I believe WP7(or 7.5 at least) is every bit as good if not better than the alternatives. Unknown and unadvertised are exactly what is the issue with it.

Case in point, I had one of our users move to a Samsung Focus S 2 weeks ago. After seeing the phone, I have 3 more people who have ordered Windows phones this week. 2 of those people are leaving iphone. Come on Microsoft, ADVERTISE!

I put my mom on WP7 last year, and she has liked it until the 7.5 update. Now she loves it. The fluididity of experience is impressive, its simple, and intuitive. And now it can multitask properly, unlike iOS. I have been a WebOS for almost a year and a half now, and WP7.5 multitasking is the next best thing, unless we count QNX.

Apps? Does anybody really care about any apps other than phone, calender, contacts, email, maps, messaging, browser and calculator? Those are what is important, and WP7 or any other mobile OS can deal with those.

Getting off point, Microsoft please, ADVERTISE! If I see one more Siri commercial I am going to puke, knowing that WP7 has been doing that as well as Android for quite a while.

By stm1185 on 12/1/2011 9:19:23 PM , Rating: 5
I don't think its just the advertising and sales people though. I just bought a new smartphone, and I spent quite a lot of time researching the decision. But I could not go with WP7 even though it does look more appealing to me then Android or iOS. The big problem with WP7 for me is that MS has made every WP7 handheld a low-mid range device. No cutting edge dual/quad SOCs, no High Resolution screens. Then to make it worse the few decent midrange offerings they have (Focus S, Titan) are only on AT&T in the US. AT&T sucks!

So even though I'd have gone with WP7 over Android, I could not go with 800x480 over 1280x720, Single Core over Dual Core, 16gb of Memory over 32gb and expandable to more; and Verizon 4G LTE over AT&T.

And since I bought my phone on Amazon's 1cent sale, they all cost the same. Though even if they didn't I don't see the big deal in spending $200 over $100, or $300 over $200, when you are signing a contract that costs $2000. Its like buying the $100 cheaper laptop that has last generation parts in it.

MS needs to let the hardware partners put out cutting edge hardware with WP7 and W8 for tablets, and they need to get them on more networks, especially ones that don't suck like AT&T. I'd have bought a WP7 device, if only they have one of Verizon with compelling hardware.

By inighthawki on 12/1/2011 10:49:44 PM , Rating: 3
I will agree with you on the resolution, but I don't know if you've used a windows phone, but it certainly does not need a dual core cpu to keep up, it'll only kill the battery.

By Unspoken Thought on 12/1/2011 11:57:00 PM , Rating: 5
So even in the Mobile era we fool ourselves into thinking more equals better, just like we did when we thought faster Ghz = better experience.

I may like to see a higher resolution screen but with an optimized OS I would much rather have longer battery life, which removes the need for dual/quad core cpus, higher res screens, and LTE. It's more convenient to have my phone on rather than look for a charger.

Storage would be my only gripe, and with the Apollo update addressing all of the above mentioned concerns, it's a non issue.

I do agree they need to get more hardware out, as the selection is limited to a handful of phones. Sorry you are on Verizon, as their CEO is an Android fan.

By TheRequiem on 12/2/2011 1:44:01 PM , Rating: 3
+1! Yeah, I think the other major difference here is that Windows 8 Tablets won't be available until the end of 2012 so why would we need advertising? The thing is, Microsoft still makes the most popular OS for pc's and with WP7 updates coming in 2012, I think we will see much more serious competition. With MS ready to debut the Xbox (which will likely have WP8 integration and Windows 8 integration), I foresee them having a very strong, reliable and efficient echo system. I'm pretty sure that once Windows 8 launches and tablets/ pc's alike start launching, there will be a massive marketing blitz. I'm pretty sure people will buy the next Xbox's, Windows 8 tablets based on Microsoft’s strong echo system and familiarity. I'm not buying into any of the arguments presented as they wouldn't be valid due to the timeframe. The end of 2012 will Microsoft’s time, WP8, Windows 8 Xbox 3... etc. We shall see what happens then.

By Mint on 12/10/2011 7:30:59 AM , Rating: 2
The only thing holding me back from WinMo is removable storage. It's just so much easier to transfer files with a memory card than rely on the cloud, wifi, or cables.

I imagine that I will eventually acquiesce, though.

By spread on 12/2/2011 12:28:15 AM , Rating: 2
No cutting edge dual/quad SOCs

Nokia is releasing duals very soon. They're playing catchup right now.

no High Resolution screens.

The screen has comparable resolution and pixel density to the iPhone retina display. It's very high res... for a phone.

As far as that the devices are low end, you don't need to throw that much hardware at WP7 because it runs very fast, even the internet is fast and smooth. You don't need to brute force the OS because it's not sluggish unlike Android. They learned their lessons though and 4.0 should be very well build now that it has GPU acceleration for almost everything.

By Gurthang on 12/2/2011 9:34:51 AM , Rating: 4
While I agree I would love to see WP7 compete better on the hardware side of things. I don't want to see the kind of abandonware behavior I see in Andriod land happen in WP7 land where you are held captive on a older version of the OS because the vendor has moved on and you phone has funky chip x that prevents you from getting everything working with some hacked rom.

And lets be frank here I as an Andriod user admin Android needs hyper powerfull CPUs to reduce the lag this incredibly wastefull OS has. So far having used my friend's WP7, tested them in our lab, and using my wife's iphone 4s I wish my Samsung phone with stripped clean GB rom ran that smooth.

MY problem with WP7 is I prefer to stay away from social media so those features don't exactly excite me and I like having the ability to tweak the OS I have in Android phone for now.

By bond007taz on 12/1/11, Rating: -1
By Unspoken Thought on 12/2/2011 12:06:19 AM , Rating: 3
Lack of Apps? There is no need to have 20 fart or kama sutra apps on your phone. Seriously, you don't.

You do know that our current mobile hardware contains ARM processors? MS has already notified developers they will make tools to port your Apps to both x86 and ARM so you can have them on whichever device you fancy at the time.

By masamasa on 12/2/2011 10:55:39 AM , Rating: 2
Agreed. This tablet, if done right, should be more functional than anything out there right now from a practical perspective. We shall see.

By Paj on 12/2/2011 7:14:44 AM , Rating: 2
Apps are critical for the success of any smartphone - they extend its functionality. If no one makes apps for it, it won't do well. If all you needed was calculators and calendars, people would just get a feature phone and call it a day.

WP7 needs to ensure that flagship iOS and Android apps make it to WP7. If people cant get similar functionality from the available apps, why would they make the switch to WP7? Certainly not for the interface - only tech savvy types care about things like that, and theyre in the minority as far as marketshare is concerned.

This is one of the reasons why webOS did so badly, and why Blackberry is failing now - people want apps, and no one is making them for those two platforms.

By Gurthang on 12/2/2011 9:19:39 AM , Rating: 5
Maybe, but what so many people fail to realize about WP7 is that unlike andriod and iphone most of what people do with smart phones like keep up with friends on facebook, surf, search, tweet, photo share, navigation, etc. are so tightly integrated in the phone OS that most of the top tier applications the people consider required on iPhone and Android that they are not just unnecessary but even the best implementrations on the competors phones are vastly inferior and require far more effort.

Where WP7 shows weakness is the immaturity of the platform and the limitations of the API with which the devs have had to extend the phone with. Things have gotten better under 7.5. But I still feel MS needs to work with the thrid party devs to create a means for them to not just add new live app tiles but to also extend/enhance the OS services. (Like allowing some new social media site to make an app that the OS can use to integrate their data at the same level as Facebook is in the OS, or Swype to offer their keyboard for use in WP7, etc.)

By jimbojimbo on 12/2/2011 1:34:47 PM , Rating: 2
You're forgetting one of the most important apps, activesync. WP 7.5 still doesn't support nearly as many of the activesync features as the iPhone or many Android phones to a point that it's unacceptable in any company that requires any level of security.

When will Windows Phone catch up with good old Windows Mobile?? Until it does our company will not even consider it.

By robinthakur on 12/2/2011 8:56:26 AM , Rating: 1
The problem is that the window of opportunity for WP7 to succeed was incredibly small, basically from the start of their promotion blitz to when their ad budget ran out. After that nobody who isn't in the phone/IT industry cared anymore, hardly any new handsets came out and the product fell off most people's radars.

Therefore MS is not perceived to even have a presence in the market yet again. This is the same as the Tablet market really, and Jason makes the critical mistake of not seeing one *very* important thing from the consumers standpoint. They have failed before, many times. A windows tablet and a windows phone are not new concepts, they have been tried before and both failed in the market for varying reasons. Do you and MS expect consumers to have such a short memory? Unlike hardware reviewers who get sent hardware to review for free then send it back, parting with your own money for a device which will probably lock you in to the environment (either Arm SOC or x86 or even iOS/Android - Good luck getting Adobe to send you a swap out Arm version of Photoshop Master Suite for free) is considered much more carefully and usually errs on the side of caution i.e. get what everybody else is getting. The effect on a company' experiential reputation from a user investing in a product which then fails in the market and is withdrawn is catastrophic. They tell everyone they know, write it all over the internet, its brand death basically.

The touch interface tacked onto Windows 7 (which rears its ugly head whenever you need to actually do something on non touch optimised apps) is a pretty sideshow, but ultimately MS in the mobile market is an absolutely toxic proposition for most consumers at this point, especially the ones who purchased old and recent Windows tablets, Kin, WiMo and to a lesser extent WP7, who feel like they have backed losers.

If it had to paint a picture, it would be of a company strongly identified with business computers and productivity software which has seen precious little success outside its core market of business servers and Office in recent years (besides Xbox/Kinect) and is very nearly irrelevant in the mobile market. They should consider renaming the company, splitting it or just making software for the other platforms. MS is at least 4 years too late to be in with a chance of winning this fight in its current state, which is a shame, but that's the way I see it.

You don't see Apps as important, which puts you squarely in the minority these days. The response of the people spending the money is that Apps are incredibly important, probably moreso on iOS than Android, as the quality is and range is higher. The fact that Android and WP7 have been doing a subset of what Siri does for a while is pointless if nobody knows about it or uses it...

By Da W on 12/2/2011 10:35:01 AM , Rating: 4
Many said in 2000:
"Microsoft is too late in the game console market.
Nintendo has been there since 1985.
They are 3 generations behind (NES-Sega master / SNES-Genesis / N64-PS1).
There are already millions of users of nintendo or sony consoles.
Sony is growing like crazy."

Yet the Xbox did catch on. Actually Microsoft learned with Xbox and perfected with Xbox 360. I see them oppening a giant can of whoopass in every non-japanese market for the next generation.

Now for those who read the future into the past, i will say this:
1- Reasons convertible tablet pc failled: Huge price tag until 2009. Still in the stylus-input paradigm. Still in the big software paradigm instead of small apps. Huge Intel/AMD power consumption. All these things are gone now, Windows 8 is something else. ARM is possible. X86 is low power. Price can range from 400$ to 1500$. touch interface is great.

2- Reasons WP7 failled: Its been only 1 year. Lack of marketing or just plain bad marketing. Too few phones with inferior hardware. Few apps. All that is changing now. It might still fizzle but i will wait one more year. There are enough apps, better hardware is coming, and it's the best communication phone there is (talking e-mails, facebook, twiter, linked in, people hub, Outlook connector and sharepoint workspace for office use). It can take the blackberry spot at least.
I don't remember Android being hugely popular until the arrival of the original Droid, and i remember Nexus One being a faillure.

Lastly, there are what, 22 millions ipads out there? Sure starting from zero you will show huge growth rates in % !!! But that's hardly an entrenched market. And people will have the choice: do you want a tablet to be a big phone or a small computer?? May be Apple/Google are right with the big phone approach. I still see additional value by having a small computer as a secondary device. I fact i will keep my desktop, and the tablet will probably take my laptop's place in my home.

By jonmcc33 on 12/2/2011 12:26:21 AM , Rating: 3
I agree. I have an HTC Arrive from Sprint and I actually think Windows Phone 7 is a superior UI compared to Android and iOS. My only issue was that I wouldn't consider AT&T, lost interest in Verizon after they went to limited data plans, wouldn't get T-Mobile if they were the last wireless provider in the world and Sprint only offered one Windows Phone to choose from.

But no complaints at all about the HTC Arrive. I like HTC as a company, the phone is very well built and the WP7 interface is truly a dream to use.

By ICBM on 12/2/2011 11:23:10 AM , Rating: 2
Everyone keeps dogging AT&T, but in South Texas, AT&T has the best network coverage by far. I hate having to do business with them, but for us, if we want the most coverage we don't have a choice.

If UI doesn't matter, then why did iphone become popular? I stand by my app statement. 99% of what people want/need a phone to do comes pre-installed on the phones already.

I also agree, use a year old WP7 upgraded to 7.5. It will blow your mind how low end hardware, year old hardware can have such a good experience. People dogging the hardware have never used one of the devices. Try it!

I don't think Microsoft has missed their window of opportunity either. What they need are more devices, on more carriers. Higher quality builds would be good too, guess we will have to wait on Nokia for that. Considering that most of the population doesn't realize there are smartphones other than an iphone, I think advertising and awareness are key for them. Keep in mind this is the population that keeps the Kardashians, Justin Bieber, Ice Road Truckers, and American Idol in business.

By NellyFromMA on 12/6/2011 3:01:39 PM , Rating: 2
lmao @ Tim Tebow as the photo for overcoming the odds hahahaha

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