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Kindle Fire

ChangeWave survey  (Source:

ChangeWave survey  (Source:

  (Source: Flurry Blog)
Kindle Fire early adopters put iPad purchases on hold, iOS and Android lead in game revenue

Amazon's Kindle Fire tablet is creating a lot of buzz in the mobile industry. In fact, some customers are willing to delay iPad purchases to buy the Kindle Fire instead.

The tablet industry hasn't been very competitive over the past year or so despite the number of tablets available on the market. Apple's iPad/iPad 2 have dominated tablet sales and left Android-based tablets in the dust. According to a recent comScore study, iPads accounted for 97.2 percent of U.S. tablet traffic in August 2011.

But in five days, Amazon's Kindle Fire will hit the market as a representation of Android (even though Amazon has created its own build of Android's 2.3 Gingerbread operating system), and this fresh-faced tab is expected to be the first worthy competitor of the iPad.

In fact, a new ChangeWave survey conducted by RBC Capital Markets, a Canadian investment bank, said that 26 percent of those who pre-ordered a Kindle Fire or strongly plan to have delayed the purchase of an iPad.

The ChangeWave survey, which included 2,600 "early adopters types," found that 5 percent had pre-ordered a Kindle Fire or strongly planned to. In 2010, the survey found that only 4 percent were very likely to purchase the original iPad.

Of the 5 percent who pre-ordered the Kindle Fire (or planned to), 26 percent said they would put an iPad purchase on hold.

The Kindle Fire has some real perks to it, such as a $199 price tag compared to the iPad 2's price tag of $499 and up. However, Kindle Fire isn't a full-featured tablet like the iPad 2. Some Kindle Fire specs include a 7-inch multi-touch display, a 1 GHz Texas Instruments OMAP 4 dual-core processor, 512 MB memory, 8 GB storage capacity, 802.11n Wi-Fi connectivity, and Amazon's new Web browser Amazon Silk. Amazon has also announced extras such as apps for Kindle Fire as well as the Kindle Owners' Lending Library, which allows customers to borrow up to one book per month with a $79 annual Amazon Prime membership.

The iPad 2, on the other hand, offers a few extras that Kindle Fire doesn't, such as a 3G option, a camera, and a microphone. It also offers up to 64 GB of storage.

Despite these differences, the Kindle Fire is holding its own as a strong competitor, since it still possesses basic abilities such as internet browsing, apps, music and video playback. Some reports even estimate that Kindle Fire will experience better sales than the iPad this holiday season.

In other mobile-related news, a new study by Flurry, which builds mobile application analytics, has found that iOS and Android-powered devices are taking over in the portable game software realm, which was once dominated by the likes of Nintendo.

According to the study, Nintendo's DS dominated the share of U.S. revenue generated for portable games in 2009 at 70 percent, while iOS and Android-powered devices were at 19 percent and Sony's PSP sat at 11 percent. In 2010, these numbers changed to 57 percent for Nintendo DS, 34 percent for iOS and Android, and 9 percent for Sony PSP. In 2011, where November and December were estimated based on the prior 10 months of this year, iOS and Android climbed to the top position with 58 percent, Nintendo DS at 36 percent, and Sony PSP at only 6 percent.

In just two years, iOS and Android tripled their market share from about 20 percent in 2009 to about 60 percent in 2011. Together, iOS and Android game revenue was at $500 million, $800 million, and $1.9 billion for 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively. For Nintendo DS and Sony PSP combined, they posted $2.2 billion, $1.6 billion and $1.4 billion for 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively.

Experts say free or 99-cent apps compared to $20 to $60 cartridges are what's tipping the scale. Back in March, Rovio Mobile CEO Peter Vesterbacka even went as far as saying console games are "dying" in favor of mobile games.

Sources: CNN, Flurry

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Does no one know statistics?
By Shadowself on 11/10/2011 1:44:35 PM , Rating: 2
Of the 5 percent who pre-ordered the Kindle Fire (or planned to), 26 percent said they would put an iPad purchase on hold.

Even if the original sample set were 1 billion, there is still only 5% that have pre ordered the Kindle Fire (or are very likely to do so). 5% is 5%. There's no other way to read that.

Additionally, of that 5%, 26% "would put an iPad purchase on hold". That is 1.3% of the entire sample size (does not matter if that is 1 billion people or 1,000 people it's still 1.3%).

Note that it does NOT say that it is 26% of the 5% plus 26% of the remaining 95%. The study is not saying 26% of tablet purchasers. It is not saying 26% of the entire sample size.

Also everyone needs to note that it says "would put an iPad purchase on hold". It does NOT say that they *will* put an iPad purchase on hold. It is a possibility the way it is worded. "Would", "Could", "Might" ... none of those equate to "Will". From the way the study is worded there is no way to know what percentage *will* put an iPad purchase on hold.

Additionally, the study says that 26% of that 5% "would put an iPad purchase on hold ". It does not say that 26% of that 5% will *not* buy an iPad, just that they are likely to put the purchase on hold. Maybe they'll buy one next year. Maybe they'll wait until Christmas. Maybe they'll never buy one (put the purchase on hold indefinitely). There is absolutely no way to tell which, if any, of these interpretations of "on hold" pertains to any fraction of the 26% of the 5%.

This study is basically flawed from the outset. It should have been restricted to those who are planning on buying (or at least are very likely to buy) a tablet of *some kind* within the next 14 months (to get the study to include the Christmas buying season of 2012). As it is, the study does not clearly enough differentiate between people who have no intention of buying *any* tablet within the foreseeable future and those who are likely to do so.

With the underlying flaws of the study and the ambiguous delineations of who might do what and the "on hold" concept without any clear boundaries of what that means this study is basically useless.

RE: Does no one know statistics?
By lightfoot on 11/10/2011 4:36:18 PM , Rating: 2
It's not totally worthless. I agree that it would have been more useful to only survey people in the market for a tablet (or at least ask the early adopters if they were in the market for a tablet.)

I personally AM an early adopter. I have preordered a Kindle Fire (that puts me in the 5% group.) I have NOT put an iPad purchase on hold. Why? Because I never intended to buy an iPad in the first place. The 1.3% of the sample set could well be ALL of the people who were considering buying an iPad. It also could be a much smaller portion. It would have been valuable had they asked ALL of the early adopters if they were planning on making an iPad purchase, but unfortunately they did not.

What IS clear is that Apple should be VERY worried about this trend. The Amazon Fire clearly is displacing iPad sales, and it hasn't even been released yet.

RE: Does no one know statistics?
By retrospooty on 11/10/2011 5:22:15 PM , Rating: 2
"With the underlying flaws of the study and the ambiguous delineations of who might do what and the "on hold" concept without any clear boundaries of what that means this study is basically useless."

Without getting into the validity of the study, it doesnt take a rocket scientist to see that $200 tablets are alot cheaper than $500 tablets. Especially when most people just need internet. The $500 ones are better and have more features, but simple internet is the main thing most people want. If you cant image at least 25% of potential tablet buyers will not get an ipad now, then I cant help you.

Regardless of this particular study.... This WILL usher in the end of the $500 tablets. Within a year I bet you even the mightily overpriced Apple ipad's will come down in price. - and thats a good thing for everyone.

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