Print 77 comment(s) - last by alp1n3.. on Jul 16 at 5:32 AM

Paul Allen  (Source:
Paul Allen's statistical analysis says Google+ achieved 7.3 million users July 10, and will reach 10 million users today

If the internet is the wild west, then Mark Zuckerberg is a cowboy who has mastered quite a bit of the terrain with 750 million visitors to his Facebook saloon. But, as seen in many old western films, there's occasionally a showdown accompanied by the cliché, "This town isn't big enough for the both of us." While Facebook hasn't met its match quite yet, Google+ may be well on its way. 

Google+ launched only two weeks ago, but in its short time on the web (and despite its invitation-only testing phase it's currently in) the social network is blowing up, and many predict that it will be a suitable rival for Facebook. 

According to Paul Allen, founder of, Google+ achieved 7.3 million users on July 10. His statistical analysis also estimates that Google+ will acquire 10 million users today, and if Google keeps the invitation button active, it will reach 20 million users by this weekend. 

"My model is simple," said Allen. "I start with U.S. Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates.

"My ratio is 1 U.S. user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven't updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time."

While Allen works on updating his method, Google+ continues to expand and the question on many minds is whether Google will pull the plug on the invitation button at some point or not, eventually limiting the number of users that can access the field testing phase. But whether it does or not, many current users have expressed their fondness of the fresh-faced social network.

"I predict that Google+ will go from 0 to 100,000,000 users faster than any other service in history," said Bill Gross, founder and CEO of technology incubator Idealab. "The service is great. It is timely. People are engaging with it like crazy. There are rumors that there are already 4.5 million people. That might be high. It might be as low as 1 million, or even lower, but my guess is that it's more than 1 million people already.

"The next year will tell. Will there be bumps in the road? Sure. Will Facebook and Twitter fight back with more innovation? Of course! But I'm saying that Google+ is already good enough, and the team on Google+ is being so responsive in a way that makes me believe they have a real winner here."

Comments     Threshold

This article is over a month old, voting and posting comments is disabled

RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 2:12:44 PM , Rating: 3
sent you an invite

RE: hmm..
By Digimonkey on 7/12/2011 2:18:58 PM , Rating: 2
Can I get an invite as well? Would appreciate it greatly.

RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 2:33:08 PM , Rating: 3
invite sent

RE: hmm..
By Eduardo9240 on 7/12/2011 2:21:48 PM , Rating: 2

RE: hmm..
By cherryp00t on 7/12/2011 2:44:45 PM , Rating: 2
May I get an invite as well??


RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 3:06:17 PM , Rating: 3
i sent your invite

RE: hmm..
By cherryp00t on 7/12/2011 3:21:35 PM , Rating: 2
thank you!

RE: hmm..
By hopsandmalt on 7/13/2011 8:24:53 PM , Rating: 2
Can I get an invite? Would be very much appreciated! Thanks!

RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:03:29 PM , Rating: 2
Hey sorry to be a 'me too' kinda guy but any spare invites left? Been signed up for an invite for ages with no joy.

thanks in advance!

RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 3:05:08 PM , Rating: 3
yoo don't have your gmail account listed under your DT profile so I don't know your email address

RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:05:44 PM , Rating: 2
hi just changed it to hotmail email - does it have to be gmail?

RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 3:06:41 PM , Rating: 3
yes it has to be gmail cause it is connected with your google account

RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:08:49 PM , Rating: 2
oh I have other google accounts (analytics, adwords etc) that use non gmail accounts so assumed it would be ok. Will switch/send gmail account. Thanks a million.

RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:11:45 PM , Rating: 2
have changed it to my gmail - thanks again

RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 3:07:29 PM , Rating: 2
i tried your hotmail just in case though

RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:28:08 PM , Rating: 2
hi again - nothing in hotmail so looks like you were right Gmail it is. Nothing there either but have added gmail to my DT profile now if you could resend. Really appreciate it sorry for the hassle.

RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 4:06:52 PM , Rating: 2
ok i sent it to google one now

RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 4:18:37 PM , Rating: 2
thanks. got it. :)

RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:07:54 PM , Rating: 2
my email is now showing - I have a gmail but don't like to use it on blogs etc for spamfear™ but I'll change it to gmail if required. thanks.

RE: hmm..
By mkennow on 7/12/2011 3:31:08 PM , Rating: 2
Can I get an invite?

RE: hmm..
By leejunfan on 7/12/2011 3:38:18 PM , Rating: 2

Can I please get an invite? I know this is starting to get old for you.

RE: hmm..
By brshoemak on 7/12/2011 3:59:55 PM , Rating: 2
Any invites left by chance?

RE: hmm..
By Dmorales12 on 7/12/2011 4:36:15 PM , Rating: 2
Do you mind if I can get an invite as well been trying for days now

RE: hmm..
By jpatracar on 7/13/2011 10:10:49 AM , Rating: 2
Hey may I get an invitation also!?..plz!??! =)

RE: hmm..
By wilzu on 7/13/2011 10:24:04 AM , Rating: 2
If there are any extra invitations floating around, I'd appreciate one.

Thank you!

RE: hmm..
By on 7/14/2011 9:12:26 AM , Rating: 2
Could you send an invite my way please? I would <3 you forever.

"Death Is Very Likely The Single Best Invention Of Life" -- Steve Jobs

Most Popular ArticlesAre you ready for this ? HyperDrive Aircraft
September 24, 2016, 9:29 AM
Leaked – Samsung S8 is a Dream and a Dream 2
September 25, 2016, 8:00 AM
Yahoo Hacked - Change Your Passwords and Security Info ASAP!
September 23, 2016, 5:45 AM
A is for Apples
September 23, 2016, 5:32 AM
Walmart may get "Robot Shopping Carts?"
September 17, 2016, 6:01 AM

Copyright 2016 DailyTech LLC. - RSS Feed | Advertise | About Us | Ethics | FAQ | Terms, Conditions & Privacy Information | Kristopher Kubicki