backtop


Print 77 comment(s) - last by alp1n3.. on Jul 16 at 5:32 AM


Paul Allen  (Source: moregoodfoundation.org)
Paul Allen's statistical analysis says Google+ achieved 7.3 million users July 10, and will reach 10 million users today

If the internet is the wild west, then Mark Zuckerberg is a cowboy who has mastered quite a bit of the terrain with 750 million visitors to his Facebook saloon. But, as seen in many old western films, there's occasionally a showdown accompanied by the cliché, "This town isn't big enough for the both of us." While Facebook hasn't met its match quite yet, Google+ may be well on its way. 

Google+ launched only two weeks ago, but in its short time on the web (and despite its invitation-only testing phase it's currently in) the social network is blowing up, and many predict that it will be a suitable rival for Facebook. 

According to Paul Allen, founder of Ancestry.com, Google+ achieved 7.3 million users on July 10. His statistical analysis also estimates that Google+ will acquire 10 million users today, and if Google keeps the invitation button active, it will reach 20 million users by this weekend. 

"My model is simple," said Allen. "I start with U.S. Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates.

"My ratio is 1 U.S. user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven't updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time."

While Allen works on updating his method, Google+ continues to expand and the question on many minds is whether Google will pull the plug on the invitation button at some point or not, eventually limiting the number of users that can access the field testing phase. But whether it does or not, many current users have expressed their fondness of the fresh-faced social network.

"I predict that Google+ will go from 0 to 100,000,000 users faster than any other service in history," said Bill Gross, founder and CEO of technology incubator Idealab. "The service is great. It is timely. People are engaging with it like crazy. There are rumors that there are already 4.5 million people. That might be high. It might be as low as 1 million, or even lower, but my guess is that it's more than 1 million people already.

"The next year will tell. Will there be bumps in the road? Sure. Will Facebook and Twitter fight back with more innovation? Of course! But I'm saying that Google+ is already good enough, and the team on Google+ is being so responsive in a way that makes me believe they have a real winner here."



Comments     Threshold


This article is over a month old, voting and posting comments is disabled

RE: Yep
By kleinma on 7/12/2011 11:49:01 AM , Rating: 2
Until there is some sort of unified model to allow all these social networks to talk to each other, it is just going to be too complicated to pick one over the other, based on features, what people you know use what service, etc..


RE: Yep
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 11:50:34 AM , Rating: 2
Which is very true. I only had 30 friends on facebook and all are on Google+ so it's easy for me to switch not easy for my wife who has 1500 facebook friends


RE: Yep
By Jedi2155 on 7/12/2011 12:49:23 PM , Rating: 2
Its easy to switch when you only have a few dozen friends you keep in touch with. When you have a few hundred or more, it gets a little bit tougher forcing you to use multiple services once to keep in touch with all your buddies....I hate that but I guess fragmentation is just one of the downfalls of progress.

That's why I love programs like Pidgin for all my instant messaging needs. I use it for Xfire, AIM, Facebook, MSN, Gtalk, ICQ all in one..


RE: Yep
By Iaiken on 7/12/2011 1:56:56 PM , Rating: 4
quote:
When you have a few hundred or more, it gets a little bit tougher forcing you to use multiple services once to keep in touch with all your buddies...


Nope, made a post about my jumping ship and that people who wanted an invite should PM me their e-mail, just like I did with MySpace... and just like MySpace most of the active members on my friends lists followed suit.

I'll basically use both for a month before shutting down my FB account and e-mailing them to request they delete all of my personal information (as they are obliged to under Canadian Law).

So long FaceBook and good riddance...


RE: Yep
By MrTeal on 7/12/2011 2:34:51 PM , Rating: 2
Sounds like a good opportunity for your wife to unfriend the best friend of the brother of a girl who's birthday party she went to once when she was 7.


RE: Yep
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 2:38:59 PM , Rating: 2
hahaha trust me i have tried to convince her to get rid of those friends but she argues that she does talk to them. I don't believe it but I can't stop her so whatever.


"I modded down, down, down, and the flames went higher." -- Sven Olsen














botimage
Copyright 2014 DailyTech LLC. - RSS Feed | Advertise | About Us | Ethics | FAQ | Terms, Conditions & Privacy Information | Kristopher Kubicki