 Concern about the health of Apple's co-founder and chief executive has reportedly been one factor damaging stock prices. (Source: Cupertino City Council)
Concerns about overvaluation, succession are top on investors' list
By market
cap Apple Inc. (AAPL)
is the world's biggest tech company, having recently passed Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) for
that spot. Apple also recently passed Microsoft in quarterly profits.
And the company blows past analyst estimates virtually every single quarter. Still, all
is not well for Apple in investors' eyes.
Apple stock hit a high of $364.90 in February 2011, and has since churned,
cycling up and down. But since the start of June there's been consistent
downward momentum, which has dropped the stock to well below its cyclic lows, plunging
it to $315.32 USD a share at the bell on Monday, June 20.
Most analysts attribute that 15.7 percent drop to uncertainty about the
succession plan for Apple, after the departure of chief executive Steve Jobs.
Mr. Jobs, who co-founded Apple in 1976, returned to the company in 1997
and transformed it from a struggling boutique vendor to the world's largest
gadget maker.
But with Mr. Jobs suffering from complications of pancreatic cancer, which
caused him to need a liver transplant, his health has been a
major concern over the last several years. Most recently Mr. Jobs took yet another medical leave of absence, though he's
still giving public presentations and attending company
meetings.
Henry Blodget at Business Insider writes:
In a way, the situation Apple finds itself in is akin to an
impending CEO retirement--without a successor having been named. In such
"lame duck" periods, companies can become paralyzed, as managers
focus more on their own future and political stature and uncertainty and less
on the business.
And, in Apple's case, unfortunately, the situation is even worse: No one knows
whether Steve will return, or when, or even when the question of his return
will finally be put to rest. So the company is in a sort of perpetual
purgatory.
The
source of Apple's stock drop may also be of a more technical nature. In
terms of price-per-earnings ratio, the stock is somewhat overvalued at a P/E
ratio of 15.0 (by contrast Microsoft has a 9.7. P/E ratio isn't always
the best judge of performance, but some fear that Apple's stock has risen too
far, too fast.
Additionally, some believe the
options markets are dragging the stock down as trading was flat for much of
last week until Thursday-Friday. However, a 1.5 percent drop on Monday
dispels that theory somewhat.
Some investors still stand firmly behind Apple. Andy Zaky of the Bullish
Cross says that Apple stock will likely reach $500 USD/share, so is a great buy
at $300-$320 USD/share. He writes:
Because of the market's short-term blindness to this obvious
reality, we find it prudent to put a strong-buy rating on the stock if it so
happens to trade under $300 during a potential brutal summer correction.
His
sentiments are echoed by Horace Dediu at Asymco.
"Well, we didn't have anyone in line that got shot waiting for our system." -- Nintendo of America Vice President Perrin Kaplan
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