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Motorola Xoom needs a price cut  (Source: Motorola)
Android tablet shipment forecast cut as iPad shipment expectations grow

The tablet market is growing by leaps and bounds and Apple with its iPad is the source of much of that growth. There are a number of Android tablets on the market today, but they aren't selling well and some users are complaining about the Honeycomb operating system and the availability of tablet-specific apps.

Analysts have agreed that the tablets are taking market share from the notebook and netbook, but the outlook for tablets overall has taken a downturn recently. The reason that the estimates for overall shipments by analysts are changing has to do with the sinking popularity of Android tablets. While Android offerings are seeing estimates for shipments cut, the iPad is actually being increased.
Jefferies analyst Peter Misek noted about six months ago that the forecast for 2011 tablet sales was 100 million. After a recent poll of consumers, Misek has changed his predictions by a whopping 30% reports eWeek. He believes that 70 million tablets shipped is a more realistic expectation.

Misek wrote in a research note, "We now believe 70 million to be more realistic due to: 1) Android 3.0 Honeycomb needing polishing, and 2) Android tablets that are priced too high."

Misek also thinks that if tablet makers like Motorola and Samsung want to compete with the iPad, they are going to need to take a hit and cut the price. Bill Shope from Goldman Sachs also lowered the overall estimates for tablet shipments in 2011 and 2012. The decline was due to reduced estimates for Android tablets, the estimates for iPad shipments actually increased.

Shope wrote, "Our iPad forecast remains unchanged, though we have lowered our non-Apple tablet unit assumptions by 2.3 million units in 2011 and 2012." He continued, "Meanwhile, we have raised our forecast for Apple's tablet market share to 66.4 percent in 2011 (64 percent prior) and 66.6 percent in 2012 (65 percent prior). Overall, we are expecting 57.7 million total tablets for 2011 and 78.0 million tablets for 2012, versus 60.1 million and 80.3 million previously."

NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang has also said that for Android tablets to be competitive, they need to be cheaper. NVIDIA has a vested interest in the Android tablet market since his company makes the Tegra processors that many of the newest Android tablets use.



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This is not surprising
By Tony Swash on 5/18/2011 1:35:15 PM , Rating: -1
This not surprising. Lets look at it from the consumers point of view.

Are Android tablets significantly less expensive than the iPad? No

Do Android tablets have significantly improved specs compared to the iPad that result in tangible improvements for the consumer experience? No

Are there more tablet optimised apps for the Android tablets compared to the iPad? No

Are there significantly fewer tablet optimised apps for the Android tablets compared to the iPad? Yes

Is the OS used by Android tablets a polished mature OS? No

Is the OS used by Android tablets an early release which is a bit buggy? Yes

Is the OS and its interface on Android tablets just like the OS and interface on Android phones so using the tablet OS is no big learning curve? No

Can you sync your iTunes existing content such as music, photos, movies etc to an Android tablet? No

Is it straight forward to sync all your music, photos, movies etc to an Android tablet with one click using just one application? No

Can you use an Android tablet to display video and audio content via AirPlay and Apple TV on your big screen TV? No

Do any Android tablets generate the same level of media buzz in the non specialist and non techie media as the iPad? No

Are any Android tablets sold via a network of market leading retail centres in major cities where you can go to try out the tablet and where there are dedicated staff ready to help you set up your tablet when you buy it? No

Are any Android tablets sold by any company with a better reputation for service or quality compared to Apple? No

Are there more compatible third party accessories for any Android tablet compared to the iPad? No

You can see where this is going. Imagine an average consumer with no special preference or affiliation to any tech brand but who fancies getting one of these new fangled tablets. Imagine they go online and Google the sort of questions listed above and get those answers. Is it any wonder that Android tablets struggle, and will probably continue to do so until they start ticking a lot more of the boxes above. And ticking those boxes is going to be very difficult indeed.




RE: This is not surprising
By headbox on 5/18/11, Rating: -1
RE: This is not surprising
By Pirks on 5/18/2011 1:48:53 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
Is it any wonder that Android tablets struggle
Asus is laughing really hard at dumb comments like these, Tony. Might want to read http://www.engadget.com/2011/05/18/asus-ramping-up... before spreading baseless Apple propaganda here.


RE: This is not surprising
By zurkram on 5/18/2011 4:27:07 PM , Rating: 2
Don't believe the hype. Asus is ramping up production from 5k units. Meaning they didn't make enough for the few Fandroids that want them.


RE: This is not surprising
By makken on 5/19/2011 9:52:21 AM , Rating: 2
RE: This is not surprising
By micksh on 5/18/2011 2:02:13 PM , Rating: 5
Most of your arguments make sense only for someone deeply drowned into Apple-everything environment.

- Heck with iTunes, it's bloated crap. It's a disadvantage of iOS devices that they force using it.
- Airplay is proprietary. DLNA is popular standard and Android can work with DLNA.
- Most of cell phone Android apps scale well to tablets even if they are not tablet-optimized.
- Soon Android will rule inexpensive Home Automation system.

Even Engadget, well known Apple fans, recently admitted that Galaxy Tab 10.1 is better than iPad 2. Read their review of Tab 10.1 development unit.

Here is something to read about Android vs iOS
http://lifehacker.com/5801862/top-10-awesome-andro...


RE: This is not surprising
By mvagusta on 5/18/2011 2:09:08 PM , Rating: 3
"Lets look at it from the consumers point of view."

sounds more like an apple fanboy point of view. Our house has both Ipad and Xoom, both have their advantages and disadvantages. Android is late in the game so it will take time for it to get more polished and have more tablet specific apps, however it does have a far superior browser IMO and it has this groundbreaking ability to view Flash content. Overall the Ipad2 is nicer (being 2nd gen) and has all the apps (amazon and ebay apps are way better on the ipad), but to say that Android tablets have no chance is bs.


RE: This is not surprising
By Tony Swash on 5/18/11, Rating: -1
RE: This is not surprising
By Pirks on 5/18/2011 4:10:09 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Can you imagine how many they will sell when they get their supply chain ramped up and recovered from the earthquake?
Can you imagine how Asus Transformer tablet will sell when they get their supply chain ramped up?


RE: This is not surprising
By Tony Swash on 5/18/11, Rating: -1
RE: This is not surprising
By Pirks on 5/19/2011 9:59:17 AM , Rating: 1
There were times when Windows PCs were sold in quantities 10 times less than Macs. Don't forget lessons of history Tony!


RE: This is not surprising
By Tony Swash on 5/19/2011 11:05:46 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
There were times when Windows PCs were sold in quantities 10 times less than Macs. Don't forget lessons of history Tony!


Only after Apple had been run by bozos in suits for a decade.

Not so many bozos at Apple now :)


RE: This is not surprising
By Pirks on 5/19/2011 2:32:38 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah, but Jobs is not going to steer Apple forever, you know


RE: This is not surprising
By themaster08 on 5/19/2011 3:09:49 AM , Rating: 2
I believe that the Transformer will set the benchmark for Android tablets, and force current manufacturers to rethink their ideas. It is the only tablet so far that I have actually been interested in, and think has a chance of being hugely successful.

I believe it will spur on a whole new wave of tablets with similar functionality. This sort of tablet may spur on an array of new applications that require a more precise input method, thus also appealing to content creators.

Using a detachable keyboard and trackpad dock, Android tablets will be able to surpass the iPad in terms of features, functionality, content creation, and also achieve battery life the iPad could only dream of. The Transformer has shown that all of this is possible now.

There is so much potential for Android tablets. Manufacturers need to stop living in Apple's shadow and actually innovate. That, and they need to seriously work on their pricing model. This is their chance to actually differentiate themselves from the iPad, and bring something to the table that is more capable, and better value for money.

If tablet manufacturers can drop their prices to those of netbooks, they will find themselves in a much better position, and also consume the remainder of the netbook market. Until then, the iPad will continue to sell in its droves, continue to have a stranglehold on applications and become more and more of a household name.

It's simple - make sure your tablet brings something new and different, create a pricepoint that cannot be matched, make sure you have the supply chain to cope with the demand, have a simple naming convention for your tablet so that people remember it, and market the hell out of it so that people know it actually exists.


RE: This is not surprising
By mvagusta on 5/18/2011 4:22:11 PM , Rating: 2
IMO a big part of the future Android Tablet base are current Android phone owners. For an average consumer that does not dig into the details of what they are looking to buy in a tablet, Apple's marketing machine and overall desirability will likely win them over to buy an Ipad. But for the same reason a lot of people are buying Android phones rather than Iphones, there exists huge growth potential for Android tablets. The main problem with the current offering of Android tablets is price. The point is that with Android tablets (like phones) there are multiple options and offerings, the prices will likely come down as the OS and hardware gets more impressive. The Android Market will get more and more apps to compete with Apple. The MP3 player market ultimately stayed with Apple because nowadays people use their phones to play music - many of those phones are Android handsets, so I don't think that market is a fair comparison to this one. I love our Ipad2 but honestly by biggest gripe with it is that fact that you cannot simply connect a USB drive to it to access files like you should be able to. Typical Apple strategy, you need to buy a special connector package and that adapter only let's you read image files. It is for reasons like this that Android and Windows tablets will always have an interest with consumers.


RE: This is not surprising
By darkhawk1980 on 5/18/2011 3:58:41 PM , Rating: 2
You have a couple of valid points Tony, but sadly you are deluded, as usual.

Yes, there are tablets significantly less than the Ipad2. Same price (but with better hardware/more memory) as the Ipad. Look around, Gtablet and Asus Transformer come to mind. You didn't do your research. Typical apple fanatic.

Why ask twice if Android has more apps for a tablet? Given the amount of time on the market, I'd be willing to bet that it's the same (ie Ipad apps at 1 year compared to Android 3.0 apps at 1 year). Developers have had more time to develop apps for the tablets. Plain and simple. But you would have to leave something like that out....

The OS is alot different, but ya know what? I would wager Honeycomb is closer to Windows than Android 2.x. Having said that, it's probably more familiar than IOS is overall.

Who cares if you can sync your Android to itunes? More than likely, if they are getting an Android tablet, they don't WANT to give money to Apple. Once again, another useless point that really has no reason to be included. Can you sync your Ipad to Windows Media Player? How about Windows itself? Yeah....Not gonna happen.

Yes, you can transfer most of your media, quickly and simply, using Windows. Oh wait, thats right. Apple fanatic, you wouldn't know that...

I can use my tablet to display video and audio content to my TV, and guess what? I do it through my PS3, my XBox 360, my WD HD TV Live! And I don't need any 'Apple crap' that costs twice as much to do it. Imagine that? Can your Ipad use DLNA? Nope, didn't think so...

Apple tablets don't generate media buzz either, in case you didn't notice. Oh wait, you probably didn't. If it didn't come from Apple, then it doesn't matter, right? I've seen more people excited about Android tablets than Apple tablets. Normal people, who don't care if it has a big white Apple logo on it or not. Why? Because it fits their lifestyle (and wallets) better. Imagine that....

Apple hardly has a reputation for quality. How many video cards were burning up 2 years ago? What about yellowing screens? How about Antennas that don't work? What about SATA2 ports that are limited to SATA1 speeds? You can ignore the glaring issues Apple has, the rest of us won't. They have more insane issues than most normal companies do.

You're right, Android doesn't have stores setup just for their tablets. Why would they need to? It's a tablet, it's very simple to use and setup (seriously, it is. My Mother picked mine up and started using it, with no experience whatsoever with Android. And she's not exactly the brightest). If you need help doing it, perhaps the problem isn't with the people, but with the people who made it? Maybe they made it to be too difficult? Didn't think about that now, did you?

Actually, there ARE more 3rd party accessories. I can use any bluetooth mouse on my Android Tablet, and any bluetooth keyboard, and pretty much ANY controller thats bluetooth. So about those pretty Ipad accessories, yeah, you've got thousands of covers, but seriously, 5 different covers is enough to cover 99% of the population's needs. Ipad might have 'more accessories', but thats because they're all the same darn thing....whereas Android has DIFFERENT accessories available, unlocking new ways to use the tablet. But hey, you wouldn't be aware of that, would you? Still thinking inside the half eaten Apple? Yeah....


RE: This is not surprising
By Tony Swash on 5/18/11, Rating: 0
RE: This is not surprising
By themaster08 on 5/19/2011 3:26:38 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
As an Appe fan I am very, very happy with the way the tablet market is shaping up :)
Let's just say that for the sake of this question that Android was on par with the iPad in terms of applications, and Honeycomb had been ironed out so that it ran buttery smooth and had no known bugs. Would you ever consider something like the Transformer over the iPad? If not, why?

If the answer is no, is it because it doesn't fit into the tightly integrated Apple ecosystem you have trapped yourself into? Do you feel obliged to purchase Apple products, not just because you're a fan, but because you have invested so much into their ecosystem you feel you can't afford to break out of it? Why would you want to limit your choice like so, when there could be a product out there better suited to your needs as opposed to the urge of satisfying your fanboyism? Do you ever consider alternatives?

I would really like to know your thoughts on this one. This doesn't just go for tablets either, it goes for any product of which Apple is in that market.


RE: This is not surprising
By habeebhashim on 5/19/2011 4:48:37 AM , Rating: 1
I can't speak for Tony, but here's why I chose to stay within the Apple ecosystem. Before that though, a bit about me; Long time PC user. 1st computer 8086 given by my bro who left to Oz for higher studies. Upgraded to an insanely expensive 80286 :D Many many computers after that... mostly laptops after I went to Uni... HP's, Dell's, Asus, a Fujitsu Siemens (which was horrible), an Acer (with a failed mb... horrible)

1st taste of Apple was when I worked partime in a publishing house in 2000. Hated the experience. How DO you quit them dang applications? WTF!!?

Anyways... after Uni, well paying job and easy timing allows my great love for laptops and gaming. Bought quite a few, from the earlier Clevo behemoths to my final Windows laptop - a Dell XLS M1730. I did spend a small fortune in between on my tower - Lian Li casing yada yada yada.... but it was the laptop that I found convenient for LAN parties.

Now... don't play the hardcore FPS any more. Settled on a bit of HoN from time to time and this game will run happily even on a Geforce 9400M. Which bring me to chose a small unibody 13" Macbook instead of lugging the XPS around. Why didn't I go with any of the other equally well built PC's like some the Alienwares or the Voodoo that HP made? Don't know... tired of Windows and Vista I guess. 7 wasn't out by then to redress the grienvences.

So there I am... 1st time REALLY using a MacOS. Blundering through its idiosyncrasies... for example... how do I rename many files in OS X? Can't do batch select and hit F2 like you would under windows :) found a small automator script and then a free app that finally did what I needed. What I'm getting at is that the experience isn't so black or white, good and bad... lots of shades of grey. And its been fun learning stuff about OSX. Eventually, it became 2nd nature. I found it more powerful for some of my tasks.

And when a 13" unibody MB Pro was available for cheap, I sold by 13" MB on ebay for about 70% of the value. Mind you, I still have the M1730... I get offers of 200-250 bucks for it... and I tell myself, for that little cash, I'd rather have it around and use it as a desktop just in case.

Speaking of desktops... won a free 32" LG TV and when the new Mini came out with HDMI output.... I said why not. I got this TV sitting around and I'm using the XPS as a desktop (now upgraded to Win 7 mind you), why not just buy a Mini and then I can plonk all of my media in it and have home sharing easy. I'd bought an iPhone by this time and there's always tons of iPod around the house (so they're not counted for reasons to stay within the ecosystem for me)...

You can see that in a space of 3 years, I've become quite proficient with OSX as a software, troubleshooting, etc for mates and others... well versed enough to write small automator scripts. Exampe is when I insert a DVD into the Mini, automator kicks in, loads handbrake, rips movie into video folder in Synology NAS (kinda like a kaliedascape system but without paying 10,000$ for it :D)

Ah... but how to take this to my 50" LCD in the hall? This was a headache as I 1st tried to use PS3 as a DLNA device (didn't work very well and wouldn't play some of the formats... lagged like a bitch sometime... I have serious doubts about that Cell thingee. Overhyped much?) and then tried with a WD Live box and then a nameless Chinese streamer. The nameless Chinese streamer worked best but had a shit UI. And god forbid if the movie stopped playing midway. Could never play that movie again until a cold restart of the NAS box and the stupid streamer... anyways... shit situation.

Until I found a 3 dollar app called Air Video O.o!!! worked well with my iPhone. I could live convert almost any format sitting in my NAS box and it will play with scrubbing and without faltering....

Hmm... have lots of iPods, a couple of iPhones, an iPad2, a couple of MBP's and a Mini... With this app, all I needed was a 99$ Apple TV. And I did and my media streaming setup was complete as the little app also had Apple's airvideo setup enabled. you could say that a windows PC and an xbox with DLNA or other device will also work... but trust me, I did that... and NOTHING worked better (for me) than that 3 dollar app, my iPhone/iPad2 and a small 2MB server program running in that headless Mini (I access it using ScreenSharing if I ever have to... which is very rarely)

Gosh.... too long a post.


RE: This is not surprising
By robinthakur on 5/19/2011 6:15:26 AM , Rating: 2
Actually, the iPad apps selection was in a much better place over a year than the Android pads are after the same time frame. Android's default App store in general is lacklustre with a awful search function which does not help matters. This translates to fewer people purchasing apps on Android, and actually it derives less App store revenue than even Symbian.

Android being more familiar than iOS? This is only your opinion and is biased. iOS popularised the entire touch screen interface, where before it had only floundered with squishy resistive screens, so that's a stretch too.

Who cares if you can sync your android to iTunes? Anyone who owns an iPhone, iPod or organises their music through iTunes is 'who'. You assume that a potential purchaser of tablets has that level of technical knowledge to work out how to drag and drop MP3 files onto the device which actually alot of users struggle with. Having used other MP3 players in the past, it isn't actually easier and quicker to do the drag and drop method, nothing is actually easier than just plugging in the device and letting iTunes do its thing in my personal experience.

Syncing with Windows Media Player is unecessary on an iPad, why would you want to when iTunes is so much better at organising music, photos, videos, Apps etc. and is created to work in tandem with the device? Just to be different? Thought so.

The DNLA thing, you are right about, I would like that, although I've never really managed to get it to work reliably streaming between my Windows Media Player Library and my PS3 (it starts then gives a cryptic error usually about 5 minutes into a film) but I have an Apple TV to play around with connected to my main lounge 3DTV and it seems to work flawlessly with the iPad/iPhone, as you would expect. So whilst I can't connect it to the PS3, I don't know why I would want to either.

When you say normal people don't care about the iPad, what planet are you living on? The iPad is rolling out in my company which is cool as I can use it at work now too and most people I know have iPad's and iPhones, so actually to me your illustration of what 'normal people' want is incorrect but that just goes to show that both of our views are extremely subjective. The sales figures for the iPad seem to give the lie to your statement however and I'm not sure why you mentioned about Android tablets being light on the wallet, they all cost as much as, if not more than the iPad urrently for a whole lot less in real terms!!

I think you'll find that as to all your bluetooth accessories bumping up the number of accessories available for Androids (of all kinds) the integration of ipod, iPad and iPhone in all kinds of devices from Docks, Cars, cases etc is exponentially bigger. BMW and Bose integrate Apple devices natively, not Androids. Louis Vuitton and all the fashion brands make iPad and Macbook cases, not Xoom or Asus Transformer cases. The rest of the world knows this, but you would rather drink the Anti-Apple Koolaid than actually hear from Apple users who are very happy using what they are using. I'm always amused watching tech geeks refer to the iPad as a toy, when actually it is the only Tablet appliance which works smoothly, the toy is the one that you have to spend 20 minutes tinkering with it before you use it, where the Apps crash all the time and where the build quality is, frankly, rubbish. If you like Android tablets so much, I hope you've bought one, because they could really use the sales right now and most people who bash the iPad don't actually translate into Android tablet sales because they are always waiting for a product which will never arrive.


"Let's face it, we're not changing the world. We're building a product that helps people buy more crap - and watch porn." -- Seagate CEO Bill Watkins














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