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Ken Rutkowski  (Source: socaltech.com)
Forty to 50 percent of time spent on Facebook is dedicated to playing games

A successful entrepreneur has predicted that Facebook will be the largest bank by 2015.

Ken Rutkowski, founder and president of Metal International, is an observer of technology and an entrepreneur. Recently, he stated that Facebook would be the biggest bank by 2015 because of Facebook Credits found in games.

Facebook has become a powerhouse in the social networking industry since its launch in 2004. It currently has over 600 million active users, and even had a movie made about its creation called "The Social Network." 

In addition to just socializing with friends, Facebook allows its users to connect through playing games like Farmville, which was developed by Zynga. Farmville is undoubtedly Zynga's most popular game with an estimated value of $12 billion.

"Facebook will be the largest bank by 2015," said Rutkowski. "I hear you say 'how can they be a bank, what's going on?' If you play games on Facebook, which, by the way 40 to 50 percent of the time spent on Facebook is playing games, and those games - like Farmville and Mafia Wars - are paid for and you have to buy credits for that and they are called Facebook Credits." 

Rutkowski mentioned that "old school" media companies have a market capitalization of $241.7 billion while "new school" media companies are valued at $319.7 billion. 

Rutkowski also noted that people who do not have a Facebook profile may want to make one soon because if they don't, a profile will be made for them. 

"Why is it important to have a profile?" said Rutkowski. "They are going to start using that to determine what your credit worthiness is. By the way, if you don't have a profile they will make one for you, so it's better for you to create it and manage it than them. That's why you want to be selective with what you put on there. If you have kids that are being idiots online, make sure you stop them right away as they are creating a pretty negative profile long term and it happens often."

In other news, Rutkowski reported that Apple is now the most profitable retailer in the world. 

"Apple retail stores do $2400 per square meter of floor space compared with Tiffany's which does $700 per square meter per day," said Rutkowski. 


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This guy is a moron
By troysavary on 4/14/2011 11:40:20 AM , Rating: 2
How the hell do these "analysts" get to keep their jobs? They are always making non-sense predictions like this. So Facebook has 600 million account? How many of those are duplicates, fakes for the purpose of trolling, account made for pets, children, etc? So this alone cuts down that number, but for arguments sake, lets assume every one of those 600 million is a unique adult. Then let us assume that every single on of those users purchases $100 worth of Facebook credits on average. (Again, highly unlikely, but for aguments sake assume it is true.

After all these assumptions highly in favour of this dude's prediction, you still have only 60 billion in Facebook bank deposits. I am no expert on banks and their assets, but I am pretty sure $60 billion is not enough to make you number 1.

I also do not believe for one second that Farmville is valued at $12 billion. Where does he get this number?




RE: This guy is a moron
By Azethoth on 4/15/2011 5:21:33 AM , Rating: 2
For arguments sake, lets imagine you read and comprehended the article. This would lead you to know that Facebook has 600 million active users. Whats an active user? Well you could Google it or just know that for social applications it tends to be unique active users in a one month interval. They also tweek this number over time to cut out frivolous counts. So for instance liking and disliking things while in another app does not count. You need to actually be in Facebook itself.

So for World of Warcraft its over 12 million, and for Facebook, the big daddy of social networks, its over 600 million and still growing.

Bank of America: $2,268,347,377 in assets, $683 billion in deposits (quick and dirty googling). So Facebook is not going to exceed their assets in like a gazillion years. Deposits though is another matter. From your calcs it would take 10 years. Less as their user base is still growing. More googling yields a penetration rate of 30% of a given population (developed). So eventually (assuming no killer app on their platform) we are looking at 2-3 billion users.

Meanwhile, 1 year of $60 billion puts them in the top 20 US banks though. 2 years top 10, 5 years to get into the top 5.

So the analyst is roughly right but not necessarily about the time-scale. On the other hand, Facebook getting better at making money works in his favor. BoA is severely limited in how much they can grow in comparison.


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