Print 63 comment(s) - last by atlmann10.. on Oct 13 at 2:48 PM

The Wall Street Journal says the iPhone is coming to Verizon early next year.  (Source: FoneArena)
New carrier is unlikely to turn back the Android tide, but should make Apple a tidy sum of cash

Since the launch of the iPhone one critical factor has remained constant.  In the smartphone's biggest market -- the United States -- the iPhone was sold exclusively on AT&T.  But that's about to change.

The Wall Street Journal claims that multiple sources brief by Apple have said that a CDMA iPhone will land early next year on Verizon's network.  CDMA is Verizon's 3G tech of choice.  Sprint also uses CDMA, while T-Mobile and AT&T utilize GSM, a rival standard.

The iPhone undeniably helped AT&T hang on to its second place spot in the U.S.  However, many customers -- particularly in 2007 and 2008 -- were disgruntled about AT&T's poor voice network.  While AT&T has made a concerted effort to improve, the experience has still left a bitter taste in many's mouth, and many still hold a negative opinion about the carrier's quality of service. 

Meanwhile the iPhone is struggling to stave off dozens of handsets sporting Google's Android operating system which have flooded the U.S. market.  Android has already passed the iPhone in U.S. sales and analysts generally believe that it is only a matter of time before it does the same worldwide.  More worrisome for Apple, interest in the iPhone is also dropping.

A shift to Verizon, the nation's largest carrier, could help Apple somewhat with both problems. According to James Ratcliffe at Barclays Capital, a Verizon iPhone would grow the carrier's subscriber base by 900,000 in 2011 and sell 9 million iPhones in total (most sales going to existing customers).  Hudson Square Research, on the other hand, believes that Verizon could gain even more new subscribers, estimating that 4 million iPhone users would switch from AT&T -- roughly 18 percent of AT&T's iPhone subscriber base.

Verizon Communications Inc. President Lowell McAdam refused to confirm or deny the rumors of an Apple deal, stating, "At some point our business interests are going to align.  I fully expect it, but I don't have anything to say."

The report offers a lot of compelling details to support its claims that the Verizon iPhone is real.  It claims that Pegatron Technology Corp., a contract manufacturer subsidiary of Taiwanese electronics giant Asustek Computer Inc. won the contract to produce the phone.  And reportedly Qualcomm is providing the CDMA chipset for the new phone, though the form factor will stay the same.

A Verizon iPhone was already prophesied earlier this year by 
Bloomberg, which says the phone will land in January (coinciding with one of Apple's typical product launch times).  However, one of the sources briefed by Apple told The Wall Street Journal offers a new piece of information -- Apple is also working on a different form factor of its popular device.

If it truly exists, the real question is whether this form factor is bigger or smaller than the existing iPhone.  A likely scenario seems a smaller candy-bar like phone, similar to the iPod Nano 5G.

The need for a Verizon iPhone is illustrated most clearly by subscriber numbers.  According to market researchers at Comscore, in August 2009 there were only 866,000 Android smartphones, compared to 7.8 million iPhones in the U.S.  In August 2010 Android had exploded to 10.9 million phones, while Apple managed an impressive, but lesser growth to 13.5 million handsets.

Ultimately despite the "danger" of getting passed by Android, the release of a Verizon iPhone may be more about bumping up profit and less about staving off its competitor.  After all, Apple currently has only 2.8 percent market share in the global phone market, but it makes 39 percent of its profits thanks to its ability to move less-than-premium hardware at premium prices and its aggressive negotiation of supply deals.  Android eventually passing Apple seems inevitable, even if Apple does launch a Verizon iPhone, but the new phone could send the already profitable company soaring to new heights in profitability.

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By Constable odo on 10/7/2010 3:26:40 PM , Rating: 2
The smartphone sector is a business and about making money. Who sells the most units or has the largest market share doesn't necessary make the most money. I'd rather that iOS held 20% of the market share and 60% of the financial share. Android market share will eventually hold majority market share. I'd say it was inevitable because it's a good OS and it is free for the taking. It's just that free doesn't translate into making money, so Google is losing out on lots of revenue and I have my doubts they'll ever make much money from Android. Android seems to be totally disrupting the mobile industry and it does appear to be a good thing for Android-using smartphone vendors while it's a scourge for those that don't use it. Nokia, RIM and MS are getting killed. Theoretically, Apple isn't making as much revenue as it might have if Android didn't exist.

Android is such an odd business model that appears broken. I find it rather puzzling and I don't get its purpose at all besides being an act of charity by Google to the mobile masses.

RE: The Android tide should matter little to Apple
By lantzn on 10/7/2010 3:46:34 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah the problem is the Android market share is adding up ALL phones with droid OS, not just smart phones with equivalent features to the iPhone. Now those numbers would be interesting to know.
It's like Ford taking the sales of ALL their vehicles made and comparing them with a single model Ferrari sales and saying, 'see, we sell more cars then they do'. Ours must be better.

By theapparition on 10/7/2010 3:58:41 PM , Rating: 2
It's not about being better. To continue your analogy, I doubt anyone at Ferrari or Ford would argue that Ferrari's are more performance oriented than Fords, but the same people would conclude that Ford does have more marketshare.

Only uninformed teenagers equate marketshare with better. There have been many instances where the superior product didn't "win" against the competition.

But in this case, most Android handsets are on par or better than the iPhone.

By SirKronan on 10/8/2010 4:04:55 AM , Rating: 2
I would say that several Android handsets are better than the iPhone, but not most. Droid Eris, anyone??

Ultimately it depends on your definition of "better." I call the Incredible mostly a tie with the current iPhone, and would consider the Droid X and Galaxy S "better." The Evo? Not better. Better at some things? Yes. Much worse? Yes, also. There are tradeoffs, of course, but overall, I don't think that most Android's are quite on par with at least the iPhone 4 yet. It outclasses most Android phones in web browsing speed, battery life, and camera quality. You might say, "well with Froyo, Android wins." Do most Android handsets out there have Froyo on them yet? The number is quickly growing but the answer is still a resounding NO.

A lot of older android devices that are out there in the hundreds of thousands are not even slated to get 2.2, even though they probably need the boost from the compiler much more than the latest and greatest android phones.

By EasyC on 10/8/2010 6:55:08 AM , Rating: 2
How can you claim the EVO is "much worse" than the iPhone 4? Sounds like someone is a bit biased.

The EVO > iPhone 4 in pretty much everything, except screen density and perhaps gaming. I don't people who game without a physical keypad of some sort though. Oh and did I mention it makes calls?

By Amber B on 10/12/2010 3:18:57 PM , Rating: 2
Actually as an employee of a cell phone provider, the majority of android phones do currently run froyo or will in the next month. Is apple releasing an update to make the iphone run faster? No

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