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Print 48 comment(s) - last by Lerianis.. on Aug 13 at 5:58 PM


  (Source: The Northern Myth)
Though they do not have enough evidence to back it up

Two researchers have claimed that giant heat waves caused by global warming will kill off desert bird communities over the next one hundred years, and even believe that mass amounts of warming-related deaths have already begun to occur. 

Researchers Blair Wolf, an associate professor of biology at the University of New Mexico, and Andrew McKechnie, from the University of Pretoria in South Africa, have discovered that temperature increases as low as two degrees Fahrenheit can affect desert bird populations in a large way.

According to these researchers' findings, massive heat waves claim the lives of several desert bird populations because these birds release body heat by panting and evaporating water across the skin, and with increasing temperatures and not enough places for these birds to find shelter and water, large numbers are dying off due to heat stroke. 

Wolf and McKechnie found that water is scarce in deserts, obviously, and birds become inactive when temperatures rise. Since these heat waves cover large areas, the birds cannot just fly away to avoid the consequences either.

To better understand the future of these bird populations, Wolf and McKechnie have devised a

mathematical model based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's predictions that Earth's temperature will rise 3.5 to 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the course of the next one hundred years. This model estimates survival rates (and supposedly future water costs for birds in this region, though no actual figures have been provided) for birds that will live during the 2080's during heat waves in comparison to those who live in the two hottest desert regions today: Birdsville, Australia and Yuma, Arizona. 

According to this model's results, small birds in the 2080's will show significantly less survival rates than larger birds due to their increased amount of water loss. As much as 30 to 40 percent of small desert bird populations could die off in this time period. Their research also shows that all birds under 100 grams will experience a decreased survival rate of 25 percent due to an increase in water loss. 

These researchers are blaming global warming for the increased temperatures that lead to heat waves, causing desert bird populations to perspire too much without enough water to rehydrate. Both Wolf and McKechnie say these increased temperatures will be overwhelming to birds, and have already claimed the lives of several desert bird populations in Western Australia and India. 

While their research has led them to these conclusions, Wolf and McKechnie admit that these results are not exactly 100 percent finished or accurate at this point. So far, their models only apply to birds that are already in hot, dry desert climates. 

"We don't have good research of these die-offs," said Wolf. "No researchers have actually been present during these incidents and no one has actually done the autopsies - so we don't even know the exact cause of death of these animals - whether it was dehydration or heat stroke.

"Our models allow for making somewhat educated guesses at this point, but real data on bird tolerances to heat and water stress are lacking."

Locals in Australia and India have reported these die-offs. Wolf and McKechnie are looking further into these dying populations to see exactly how many are being killed due to heat, and how this will affect other plant and animal species. 

"These incidents illustrate a need for more basic research on how animals function so that predictions can be made and measures can be taken to preserve our biodiversity," said Wolf. 

Wolf presented his abstract, "Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves and droughts" at the Global Change and Global Science: Comparative Physiology in a Changing World conference from August 4-7 in Colorado.



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Funny...
By pheffern on 8/11/2010 8:03:03 AM , Rating: 5
Seems like an awful lot of assumptions and very little actual data. Strange that this is what passes for science these days.




RE: Funny...
By JimboK29 on 8/11/2010 8:31:46 AM , Rating: 2
And what about the cooling that causes thousands of fish to freeze to death off the coast of Brazil?

Oh and look at this - global sea ice is up.
http://www.threatcore.com

Stop the bias, DT. Please.


RE: Funny...
By MrBlastman on 8/11/2010 11:36:12 AM , Rating: 4
Less birds means less crap on my cars. :)


RE: Funny...
By drycrust3 on 8/11/2010 2:11:22 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
We don't have good research of these die-offs

quote:
Wolf and McKechnie admit that these results are not exactly 100 percent finished or accurate at this point


Good work chaps, keep it up. You should be proud of your work, and I hope your university is proud of you too. Make sure you never actually complete your research, because you've done a great job.
And while you are at it, tell your government that they need to bring in more controls on industry and the populous urgently (but not for yourselves and the government, you both need exemptions), oh, and don't forget the government needs to control the media as well because they might print things "out of context", and that you will need more money to "prove" this might happen someday or the whole of their country might become a barren desert with migratory birds dying of thirst because they might not know how to fly to the nearest waterhole.


RE: Funny...
By JimboK29 on 8/11/2010 8:35:42 AM , Rating: 2
RE: Funny...
By bug77 on 8/11/2010 8:47:17 AM , Rating: 4
Eh, you're not a scientist, you don't understand how these things work.

First, you need a catchy theme. Something that includes "climate change" (but not "questions", "investigating", etc.) is a sure hit. So you get "Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality". Then you must publish something. And you go "these results are not exactly 100 percent finished or accurate at this point". And then you work towards making it 100 percent accurate, as long as money keeps coming in.

This is serious stuff, you know?


RE: Funny...
By the3monkies on 8/11/2010 9:34:58 AM , Rating: 3
I too believe that this AGW stuff is nonsense; but I recognize that a little proactive ass-covering is called for just in case Florida disappears under the waves. So what I've done is construct my argument in such a way that regardless of what global temps do, I can never be wrong. (You might object that this is the position taken by most of us AGW deniers, but I think I deserve credit for putting it all in black and white.) Here it is:

Scenario 1) global temps don't rise, therefore the theory is obviously wrong and I'm right.

Scenario 2) global temps do rise, in which case I'll explain it away as just another example of natural variation in the earth's climate and not proof of AGW, and therefore I'm right again.

So take that you liberal, tree-hugging, baguette and brie munching fairies - we are invincible!


RE: Funny...
By bug77 on 8/11/2010 10:12:11 AM , Rating: 2
Well, you'd be one step ahead of the scientists if you could " explain it away as just another example of natural variation". Most of the stuff I've read is just postulated . No way can any of the theories be proven wrong.


RE: Funny...
By chripuck on 8/11/2010 1:27:36 PM , Rating: 2
Do you just keep this in a word document and repost it in every global warming post?


RE: Funny...
By the3monkies on 8/11/2010 3:27:53 PM , Rating: 3
All I'm saying is that if we want to win this AGW debate, we've got to predefine our position so that no matter what facts and figures the tree-huggers throw at us, we still come out on top. Otherwise you spend all day having to Google up some refutation to all the pseudo-scientific nonsense being released by virtually every climate scientist in the world claiming that this or that statistic is further evidence of AGW. That's an endless battle, and ultimately a fool's game, because corrupt climate scientists are the ones who produce and control the data, which gives them an unfair advantage. So what I'm trying to do is tell the tree-huggers there's no point in throwing facts and figures at us because no matter what global temps do, we've structured our argument in such a way that we can never be proven wrong.

I mean, in the end, as far as our position is concerned, it doesn't matter what global temps do. Temps could go through the roof, all the ice sheets melt, the oceans rise dozens of meters; none of that is relevant to our argument, which is that even if we don't have the slightest idea where global temps are going, we can say ahead of time, no matter what happens, the man has no influence on global temps. And we can do that because of the reasoning I mentioned in my above post.


RE: Funny...
By Reclaimer77 on 8/11/2010 11:51:06 AM , Rating: 4
Can I see a show of hands from people who KNEW this was a Tiffany article before they even clicked on it, just from the title?

*raises hand*


RE: Funny...
By TSS on 8/11/2010 12:24:19 PM , Rating: 2
Now now be fair, From the title it could've been a Mick article just as well.

I stopped reading after the first paragraph though. Death from heat in the desert? Really? With no actual proof to back it up?

There i thought it was a tiffany article.


RE: Funny...
By Cheesew1z69 on 8/11/2010 12:45:02 PM , Rating: 4
And this

Wolf and McKechnie found that water is scarce in deserts

Really captain obvious?


RE: Funny...
By espaghetti on 8/11/2010 3:18:38 PM , Rating: 2
And in other news today......water is needed for birds to live. More on this at 5.


RE: Funny...
By InvertMe on 8/11/2010 1:03:51 PM , Rating: 5
I'm fairly convinced at this point that Tiffany is Mick in a dress behind the keyboard.


RE: Funny...
By AlexWade on 8/11/2010 7:21:28 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Seems like an awful lot of assumptions and very little actual data. Strange that this is what passes for science these days.


Why not? Consider all the things man-made global warming is blamed for. GW is blamed on everything from acne to zoonotic diseases. Just add something else to the list, what does it matter at this point?

http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm


RE: Funny...
By Lerianis on 8/13/2010 5:58:22 PM , Rating: 2
Agreed. It seems today that everyone wants to point to global warming/climate change (which is real, but just a natural non-man-made phenomenon) as the source of all the ills in the wild today.

I don't buy it. I'm wondering if more these species are 'dying out' because of diseases which have nothing or little to do with global warming or climate change.


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