at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg have
calculated the amount of carbon
dioxide humans can safely emit before effecting the heating
of the Earth.
Erich Roeckner and his team have created a model that determines
the highest volumes of carbon dioxide that humans are
allowed to emit in order to ensure that Earth does not heat up by
more than two degrees Celsius, which is the gate to climate warming.
They've used the methodology proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) in order to reconstruct historical emission
pathways "on the basis of already-calculated carbon dioxide
order for this to occur, carbon cycle data, such as the volume of
carbon dioxide absorbed by forests and oceans, is added to the model.
The model then simulates the evolution of carbon dioxide emissions in
order to understand what the future holds and how it should be
changed to prevent warming.
model is based on a low-resolution spatial grid with 400 kilometer
grid spacing. With this kind of model, the land surface, ocean, sea
ice, atmosphere and terrestrial and marine carbon cycle are all
included in the study.
to the model, carbon dioxide caused by fossil fuels must be reduced
to almost zero by the end of the century to achieve long-term goals
of carbon concentration stabilization in the atmosphere. The model
calculated that, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution,
fossil carbon dioxide has increased by 35 percent.
figures the model has calculated is that carbon emissions will
increase from seven billion tonnes in 2000 to 10 billion tonnes in
2015. Then, emissions will have to be decreased by 56 percent by
2050, and reach zero by the end of the century for long-term
stabilization to be achieved. But even if these goals are met, global
warming would only stay below two degrees Celsius until
2100, and further measures will need to be taken to control warming.
noted that it will take centuries to stabilize the global climate
system, and that their data is being studied and evaluated at other
climate centers in Europe.
soon as all of the results are available, we can evaluate the spread
between the models," said Roeckner. "The more significant
the data we have, the more accurate our forecast will be."
other news, a University of Georgia marine chemist, Wei-Jun Cai, just
disproved that melting ice at the poles will allow open water
carbon dioxide from the the air. According to a survey of
waters in the Canada Basin, the potential carbon dioxide "sink"
would be a very short period of time with minor effects due to the
amount of rising emissions.
study was published in the July 2010 edition of Science.