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Can we expect an ice age to start every 36,500,000 days or so?





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Duh...
By roostitup on 4/7/2010 10:03:05 AM , Rating: 2
Everyone already knew that the Earths changing orbit causes climates to change, so does this data just prove it rather than just using common sense?




RE: Duh...
By 67STANG on 4/7/2010 11:24:02 AM , Rating: 3
Agreed-- the changing orbit is a large part of the equation. The other part of the equation is the natural cycle of our magnetosphere.

Any scientist will tell you that the earth's magnetic poles swap from north to south over a vast period of time, and have done so since the beginning. During these swaps, the weakening/strengthening magnetosphere (depending on the cycle) allows in a variable amount of solar radiation which also has an impact on temperature (ie- the current South Atlantic Anomaly).

That said, all of these environmentalists that claim we are ruining our planet are both right, and wrong. They are wrong on the account that our polluting has any real effect on our temperature trending. They are right that we are making our air quality quite horrible.


RE: Duh...
By gamerk2 on 4/7/10, Rating: -1
RE: Duh...
By porkpie on 4/7/2010 3:45:19 PM , Rating: 3
"the only question is whether or not it can change temps"

No. The only question is whether or not it can change temperatures significantly.

"Venus is a perfect example of a greenhouse effect"

Venus is an imperfect example. It's far closer to the sun, it has over 100,000 times the CO2 as does the earth, and most importantly of all-- it has no water vapor which not only absorbs the same wavelengths of IR that CO2 does, but also acts as a negative feedback, by altering planetary albedo.

"many GW detractors tend to look only at local weather [The cold US winter, for instance], while ignoring the rest of the planet [which had a very warm winter"

The rest of the planet did not have "a very warm winter". England, Russia, China, Korea, Scandinavia, and many other nations had their coldest winters in decades or, in some cases, in all recorded history:

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/0...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/04/record-sn...


RE: Duh...
By TSS on 4/8/2010 8:57:55 AM , Rating: 2
I'll give direct emperical evidence of this from across the ocean ^^

Here in holland, Last winter i've seen the same snow on the ground for close to 4 weeks. as in, it didn't melt.

I'm 23 years old and the previous record was the same snow for 5 days, and i thought that was long. That was when i was like 6 years old and since then i haven't seen a winter where we had more then 2 days of the same snow.

Hell i was walking between friends houses on christmas around midnight, and we could iceskate on the streets. The only time i've heard something similar is my dad talking about a day like that somewhere in the 60's.


RE: Duh...
By Grabo on 4/8/2010 9:36:49 AM , Rating: 2
From a climate perspective, individual years are irrelevant.
Usually, scientists like to talk in 30-year bits at a minimum.

This winter in Europe was pretty good. 'Pretty good' is relative though, because as mentioned individual years don't indicate much. Seen from a 100year+ perspective, the winter of 2009 wasn't all that great(data from the Swedish meteorological institute)
-->
http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.2451!image/temp_v...

Seen from the same time frame, the yearly average is creeping up as well.
-->
http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.2435!image/temp_a...

The combined globe average wasn't frozen solid either: "The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for February 2010 was the sixth warmest February since records began in 1880." -->
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=... - pretty picture, want to count the red and blue dots porky?


RE: Duh...
By porkpie on 4/8/2010 10:11:24 AM , Rating: 2
"From a climate perspective, individual years are irrelevant"

Temperatures have failed to increase for 15 years now, as even Dr Phil Jones -- the scientist at the heart of the ClimateGate Scandal -- now admits:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Cl...


RE: Duh...
By Grabo on 4/8/2010 10:24:27 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Temperatures have failed to increase for 15 years now, as even Dr Phil Jones -- the scientist at the heart of the ClimateGate Scandal -- now admits:


'As even'? Who else? You imply things with every third syllable, just like mr Slant.

The World Meteorological Organisation doesn't agree:
--> http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_release...

Sweden's temperatures do not agree:
--> http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.2435!image/temp_a...

The NOAA doesn't agree:
-->
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global

NASA/GISS do not agree:
-->
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A.lrg...


RE: Duh...
By jbartabas on 4/8/2010 2:40:58 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
'As even'? Who else? You imply things with every third syllable, just like mr Slant.


Don't gratify his spin with an implicit confirmation: Jones "admitted" that "temperatures have failed to increase for 15 years now". This is a gross misrepresentation of what "statistical significance" means. Anybody with some college science education should be able to see the scam here ...


RE: Duh...
By jbartabas on 4/8/2010 2:34:36 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Temperatures have failed to increase for 15 years now, as even Dr Phil Jones -- the scientist at the heart of the ClimateGate Scandal -- now admits:


The only thing that fails here is your attempt to understand basic
statistics.


RE: Duh...
By jbartabas on 4/8/2010 3:12:46 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
The rest of the planet did not have "a very warm winter". England, Russia, China, Korea, Scandinavia, and many other nations had their coldest winters in decades or, in some cases, in all recorded history:


It's really fun to go a few percent of the Earth surface at a time, but why don't you just report the global average anomaly directly (or just the northern hemisphere hemisphere if you really really want to focus on half of the Earth).


RE: Duh...
By JediJeb on 4/7/2010 5:18:10 PM , Rating: 2
One other variable that Venus has that Earth does not have is a tremendous amount of Sulfuric Acid in the atmosphere. This causes the atmospheric density to be very high compared to Earth which causes completely different dynamics of airflow and temperature gradients. It's not even like comparing Apples to Oranges but Apples to Softballs.


RE: Duh...
By 67STANG on 4/7/2010 5:27:39 PM , Rating: 2
I'm not disputing that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. I'm simply calling shenanigans that it has any real effect on what we are seeing (this year, a cool down, for example) in weather patterns. Warming and cooling trends existed before the industrial revolution and before people. They'll continue after we're all gone too-- even with no humans here to pollute.


"Let's face it, we're not changing the world. We're building a product that helps people buy more crap - and watch porn." -- Seagate CEO Bill Watkins










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