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Dr. Velasco Herrara  (Source: Reuters)
A "little ice age" in our future?

Previous DailyTech stories have detailed recent cooling experienced by the planet, and highlighted some of the scientists currently predicting extended global cooling.  Even the UN IPCC has stated that world temperatures may continue to decline, if only briefly.

Now, an expert in geophysics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico has added his voice to the fray. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at UNAM's Institute of Geophysics, has predicted an imminent period of cooling intense enough to be called a small ice age.

Speaking to a crowd at a conference at the Center for Applied Sciences and Technological Development, Herrera says the sun can both cool and warm the planet. Variations in solar activity, he says, are causing changes in the Earth's climate.

"So that in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years", he said. "The most immediate result will be drought."  Herrera says satellite temperature data indicates this cooling may have already begun.

Recent increases in glacier mass in the Andes, Patagonia, and Canada were given as further evidence of an upcoming cold spell.

Herrera also described the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as "erroneous". According to Herrera, their forecasts “are incorrect because are only based on mathematical models which do not include [factors such as] solar activity".

Herrera pointed to the so-called "Little Ice Age" which peaked in the 17th century, as a previous cooling event caused by solar fluctuations.

Herrera made his remarks at UNAM, located in Mexico City, is the oldest university on the North American continent.



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By DeepBlue1975 on 8/20/2008 4:40:07 PM , Rating: 2
Number of affiliates to an idea does not equate to a better probability of being right.

That's a fallacy which, unfortunately, is abused over and over.

Remember that, by the time Einstein came up with his restricted theory of relativity, he was almost the only one supporting his findings and there were lots of scientists calling him mad and what not.
Even to a book called something like "1000 arguments explaining why Einstein is wrong" Einstein replied something like "If I am really wrong, you only need one argument to demonstrate it, not 1000".

The fact that there are 2 strongly opposing sides. Those who oppose the anthropocentric... err, anthropogenic! view of global temperature increase are not just a handful, there are lots of them.

Instead of happily locking sides, the best course of action for he who wants to learn and better understand, is to study both approaches and go where the evidence better leads him.

It's unfortunate that our race has become too busy trying to find the ultimate answer for everything instead of enjoying the real search for knowledge, that eventually leads to finding strong and solid answers without the need to force them to come out from biased opinions.

When morals and pressure for results interfere with science, science ends up loosing ground to "what it should be" kind of thoughts and then we have more pseudoscience than science.


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