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Dr. Velasco Herrara  (Source: Reuters)
A "little ice age" in our future?

Previous DailyTech stories have detailed recent cooling experienced by the planet, and highlighted some of the scientists currently predicting extended global cooling.  Even the UN IPCC has stated that world temperatures may continue to decline, if only briefly.

Now, an expert in geophysics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico has added his voice to the fray. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at UNAM's Institute of Geophysics, has predicted an imminent period of cooling intense enough to be called a small ice age.

Speaking to a crowd at a conference at the Center for Applied Sciences and Technological Development, Herrera says the sun can both cool and warm the planet. Variations in solar activity, he says, are causing changes in the Earth's climate.

"So that in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years", he said. "The most immediate result will be drought."  Herrera says satellite temperature data indicates this cooling may have already begun.

Recent increases in glacier mass in the Andes, Patagonia, and Canada were given as further evidence of an upcoming cold spell.

Herrera also described the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as "erroneous". According to Herrera, their forecasts “are incorrect because are only based on mathematical models which do not include [factors such as] solar activity".

Herrera pointed to the so-called "Little Ice Age" which peaked in the 17th century, as a previous cooling event caused by solar fluctuations.

Herrera made his remarks at UNAM, located in Mexico City, is the oldest university on the North American continent.



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RE: Another contrarian - so what?
By jimbojimbo on 8/20/2008 3:45:33 PM , Rating: 2
But the sun always burns at an exact constant forever and any kind of fluctuation in the solar system just HAS to be because of us, right? Oh we're so evil! It's all our fault!

For some reason there are a lot of panicky morons out there that just can't fathom the idea that THE SUN DOES NOT BURN STEADILY.


RE: Another contrarian - so what?
By ipay on 8/20/2008 4:30:30 PM , Rating: 1
You haven't read any of the links provided, have you? You've done no research. You provide no evidence for your assertions. You just know you're right and you can win any argument by SHOUTING.

What a laughable, standard-issue denial retard....


RE: Another contrarian - so what?
By masher2 (blog) on 8/20/2008 4:56:18 PM , Rating: 1
How many papers on solar physics have you yourself read? I personally have interviewed or spoken with several solar physicists and astrophysicists who believe the sun is presently causing climate change here on Earth. Ilya Usoskin, Henrik Svensmark, Nir Shaviv, and Sally Baliunus to just name a few.


RE: Another contrarian - so what?
By Suomynona on 8/23/2008 9:08:42 AM , Rating: 2
So? You self-selected a handful of (widely discredited) scientists who confirm the lies you want to spread. You have proved nothing.

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/28/090/30...


RE: Another contrarian - so what?
By clovell on 8/20/2008 5:50:16 PM , Rating: 2
He actually makes an incisive point. None of the models that predict AGW include solar activity.

That's called confounding and it often invalidates results, or, at the very least, leaves them open to question.


RE: Another contrarian - so what?
By Suomynona on 8/23/2008 9:15:33 AM , Rating: 2
So you think that none of the scientists involved in climate research over the past 100+ years considered solar activity? Only someone monumentally stupid could believe that.

People like you do more for promoting the idiocy of AGW denial than any scientist or proponent of AGW ever could. Priceless.


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